Container Drayage Break-Even: About $204K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $73.5K/mo Hard overhead

Contribution margin 80% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $91.9K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 2 Model break-even

Break-even calculator

Use this to test monthly revenue, direct run costs, and overhead against break-even for a container drayage trucking service.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the pool that covers direct trip costs and overhead. $ Slow month Peak month Variable expenses These are direct run costs that move with each load. $ Light loads Heavy loads

Money available to cover fixed costs $494,836 $607,167 revenue - $112,331 variable expenses

Margin ratio

81%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead the business must cover before profit. $ Lean base Built out

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which drayage trucking expenses are fixed and which move with container volume?

Cost classification

Break-even only works if each drayage trucking cost classification matches real behavior. Fixed costs set the monthly hurdle, while variable and semi-variable costs decide how much each container move contributes after fuel, tolls, fees, and repairs.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Truck and Chassis Leases	Fixed	Include $45,000/month in the fixed monthly break-even hurdle.	Spreading leases per move and hiding unused capacity.
Commercial Insurance Premiums	Fixed	Include $12,500/month as fixed overhead across the planning range.	Treating insurance as if it rises with each container move.
Port Yard and Office Rent	Fixed	Include $8,500/month before calculating contribution per move.	Leaving rent out because it is not tied to a load.
Fuel and Toll Expenditures	Variable	Model as 12.0% of first year revenue, falling to 10.0% by mature year.	Ignoring deadhead miles and undercounting empty-return fuel.
Port and Terminal Access Fees	Variable	Model as 3.0% of revenue because fees follow terminal activity.	Putting access fees into fixed overhead instead of per-volume economics.
Vehicle Maintenance and Repairs	Semi-variable	Model as 4.0% of first year revenue, then 3.0% in the mature year.	Assuming repairs move perfectly with each job instead of miles and wear.
Lead Dispatcher Staffing	Semi-fixed	Add headcount in steps, from 2.0 FTE in the first year to 6.0 FTE by Year 5.	Putting dispatch in pure variable and overstating margin at low volume.
Company Drivers	Semi-fixed	Scale driver payroll in blocks, from 10.0 FTE in the first year to 40.0 FTE by Year 5.	Modeling drivers as fully fixed when fleet size must rise with volume.

How does drayage trucking break even across lean, base, and full operating scenarios?

Scenario table

Here’s the quick math: lean volume misses overhead, the Year 1 base case clears it by a small margin, and the Year 3 full case adds cushion as fixed costs are spread over more moves.

These figures are planning assumptions built from the model inputs, not guarantees.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean local-only starter lane	$130,000	$26,000	$118,083	80%	-$14,083	Below break-even; route density still has to rise.
Base Year 1 operating case	$254,167	$50,833	$163,083	80%	$40,250	Just above break-even, so small volume dips can erase profit.
Full Year 3 scale case	$607,167	$112,331	$254,417	81.5%	$240,419	Well above break-even; higher density creates a safer cushion.

What breaks the drayage break-even plan first?

Stress test

The plan is most exposed to lower monthly revenue, higher fixed overhead, and a drop in contribution margin from fuel, tolls, insurance, and deadhead miles. At the current setup, break-even sits near $203,854 a month, so small misses chew through the cushion fast.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$203,854	$50,313 cushion	The model clears break-even, but the margin is not huge.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue drops 10% from the base case.	$203,854	$24,896 cushion	Less top-line volume leaves far less room for empty miles and delays.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed overhead rises 10% to about $179,392 a month.	$224,240	$29,927 cushion	Leases, insurance, and yard costs push the break-even line higher.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise from 20% to 25% of revenue.	$217,444	$36,723 cushion	Fuel, tolls, and repairs take more of each load.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10%, fixed overhead rises 10%, and variable expense pressure lifts costs to 25%.	$239,189	$10,439 gap	Lower volume and weaker margins turn the cushion into a loss.

Is the drayage business ready before you sign the yard lease and add trucks?

Founder checklist

Don’t lock in leases or fleet spend until the first-year lane mix, Year 1 rates, and Month 2 cash need all still clear break-even. If the math only works with perfect volume, the commitment is too early.

1Demand Proof$3.05M

Verify you can book 2,400 local moves, 800 extended moves, 400 reefer moves, and 1,200 detention hours in the first year, because that volume is what makes the revenue base real.

2Year 1 Rates$650/$1.2K/$950/$125

Check that local, extended, reefer, and detention pricing still lands near the Year 1 assumptions, since a small rate miss hits margin on every load.

3Fixed Load$163.1K/mo

Make sure leases, insurance, rent, software, marketing, compliance, and payroll fit inside the monthly fixed cost stack, or break-even moves out fast.

4Chassis Access10 drivers

Confirm port and rail access, chassis supply, and dispatch coverage before promising capacity, because the Year 1 driver ramp only works if the base lane runs cleanly.

5Cash Cushion$840K

Hold the Month 2 minimum cash separately from the $150,000 truck down payments and other capex so receivables and startup spend do not starve operations.

6Launch FlowMonth 2

Test dispatch, appointment booking, proof of delivery, and billing before scaling, because repeat lanes and payment controls are what keep cash from leaking out.