Potable Water Delivery Truck Break-Even: About $37K/Month

Fixed costs $30.2K/mo Launch base

Contribution margin 76% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $40.0K/mo Revenue target

Break-even timing Month 2 Early ramp

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against break-even for a potable water delivery truck service.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the cash you bring in before direct costs and overhead. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These rise with each load, delivery, and service ticket. $ Low costs High costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $60,316 $80,583 revenue - $20,267 variable expenses

Margin ratio

75%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead the business must cover before profit. $ Lean overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which potable water delivery expenses are fixed, variable, or route-based for break-even?

Cost classification

Break-even only works if stable monthly costs stay fixed and per-delivery costs move with volume. Misclassifying salaried drivers or route fuel can make Month 2 break-even look cleaner than operations really are.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Truck Depot and Office Rent	Fixed	Include $4,500 per month in fixed overhead before calculating required delivery volume.	Spreading rent across loads and making break-even look lower when volume rises.
Commercial Auto and Liability Insurance	Fixed	Include $3,200 per month as a fixed operating charge for the planning range.	Treating insurance as per-load even though the monthly premium does not move with each delivery.
Fleet Dispatch and Routing Software	Fixed	Include $850 per month in fixed overhead unless the subscription changes by fleet size.	Ignoring software because it is small, then overstating contribution margin.
General Manager and Salaried CDL Driver Pay	Fixed	Use base salaries as fixed payroll; first-year salaries include $95,000 for the General Manager and $68,000 for the Lead CDL Driver.	Treating all driver pay as Variable when salaried CDL roles are fixed for break-even.
Municipal Water Sourcing Fees	Variable	Apply the first-year 6.5% sourcing charge against sales volume as deliveries are completed.	Putting water purchases in fixed overhead, which hides the true margin per load.
Payment Processing Fees	Variable	Apply the 2.8% processing fee to paid orders because it moves with customer payments.	Using gross revenue for break-even and forgetting card fees reduce contribution.
Fuel and Diesel Exhaust Fluid	Semi-variable	Model the 8.5% first-year fuel assumption, then stress-test longer routes because miles can change faster than order count.	Using one average fuel rate for every zip code, even when route distance drives margin.
Added CDL Driver Capacity	Semi-fixed	Add payroll in steps when route volume requires more staffing; the Staff CDL Driver begins in Month 13 at $58,000 annual salary.	Smoothing new driver pay across all months instead of showing the step-up when capacity is added.

How does break-even change from a lean route mix to a full build?

Scenario table

Break-even here is mostly about route density and staffing. The lean case slips below it, the base case gets over it, and the full Year 2 build has the widest cushion.

Planning figures use model assumptions and rounded monthly averages, so actual break-even can move with route density, fuel, and staffing.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean route mix	$36.3k	$8.9k	$30.2k	75.4%	-$2.8k	Sits just below break-even, so a weak month still creates loss.
Base Year 1 run rate	$51.9k	$12.8k	$30.2k	75.4%	$8.9k	Clears break-even with a modest monthly cushion.
Full Year 2 route build	$80.6k	$14.3k	$46.7k	82.3%	$19.6k	Best cushion in the table, but only if demand holds.

What breaks the break-even plan for a potable water delivery truck service?

Stress test

The main risk is a thin year-one cushion. If routes fill slowly, fixed overhead climbs, or fuel and water sourcing costs rise, break-even moves fast and the first-year buffer can disappear.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change in year-one revenue or cost structure.	$506k	$117k cushion	Year one clears break-even, but the buffer is not large.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue falls 15% to about $441k.	$387k	$54k cushion	Slow route fill cuts most of the safety margin.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise 10% to about $333k.	$537k	$86k cushion	Overhead growth tightens the plan fast.
Margin pressure	Variable costs rise 5 points to about 243%.	$532k	$91k cushion	Fuel or sourcing cost creep eats into contribution.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 15%, fixed costs rise 10%, and variable costs rise 5 points.	$441k	$0 cushion	All three hits leave almost no room for delay.

What should you verify before leasing trucks and hiring drivers for a potable water delivery service?

Founder checklist

Test demand, route density, and cash before you lock in trucks and payroll. The model shows Year 1 revenue at $623K, a cash low of $617K in Month 3, and break-even by Month 2, so the question is whether real bookings can carry the fixed load.

1Route demand102/mo

Verify signed or verbal orders can support about 102 billable services a month at a Year 1 average ticket near $366.

2Fixed burn$30.2K/mo

Check that rent, insurance, software, marketing, maintenance, cleaning, and Year 1 wages stay near $30.2K a month before variable costs.

3Unit margin95% CM

Confirm the base prices of $300, $700, $500, and $150 still clear about $19.30 of variable cost per service so each load funds overhead.

4Fleet ramp2 trucks

Do not add the second $165K tanker truck or extra CDL coverage until Month 3 demand can keep the first route full.

5Cash floor$617K

Keep at least $617K of cash through Month 3, since that is the modeled low point before the route base is fully built.

6Water setupLaunch-ready

Secure municipal water sourcing, potable testing, and tank sanitization before launch, and hold the base-case pricing at $300, $700, $500, and $150.