Key Duplication Service Break-Even: $27K Monthly Revenue Target

Fixed costs $16.7K/mo Base overhead

Contribution margin 81.5% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $20.5K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 15 Model break-even

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test monthly revenue against variable costs and fixed overhead for a key duplication shop.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the top line that funds the rest of the cost base. $ Lower sales Higher sales Variable expenses These rise with sales, like blanks, fobs, ads, and card fees. $ Lower direct costs Higher direct costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $30,110 $36,508 revenue - $6,398 variable expenses

Margin ratio

82%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead your margin has to cover. $ Lean overhead Heavier overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which key duplication expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

If you mix rent, payroll, blanks, and card fees, the break-even month can look safer than it is. Keep fixed overhead separate from revenue-linked costs so the Month 15 break-even target reflects real store economics.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Retail Space Rent	Fixed	Include $3,500 per month in fixed overhead.	Tying rent to sales volume.
Store Manager/Owner Operator payroll	Fixed	Include the $80,000 annual salary in monthly fixed coverage.	Treating owner labor as free.
Lead Key Technician payroll	Fixed	Include the $60,000 annual salary in the monthly coverage target.	Ignoring staffed capacity needed to deliver service.
Customer Service / Junior Technician payroll	Semi-fixed	Step payroll up as staffing rises from 1.0 FTE to 2.0 FTE.	Spreading future staffing into the launch month.
Marketing Coordinator payroll	Semi-fixed	Step payroll up as staffing rises from 0.5 FTE to 1.0 FTE.	Confusing payroll with ad spend.
Key Blanks and Fobs	Variable	Use 9.0% of first year revenue for break-even math.	Counting opening inventory twice.
Marketing and Advertising	Variable	Use 7.0% of first year revenue as paid demand spend.	Burying paid demand in fixed overhead.
Payment Processing Fees	Variable	Use 2.5% of revenue for card processing.	Ignoring card mix in low-ticket transactions.

How does break-even change from a lean launch to base and full key duplication volume?

Scenario table

As volume rises, fixed costs get spread over more sales and the margin cushion improves. The lean case still sits below break-even, the base case clears it, and the full case has room to absorb slower weeks.

Planning assumptions only; actual break-even can move with demand, pricing mix, wages, and rent.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch case	$23,833	$4,410	$22,138	81.5%	-$64,000	About $3.3k short of monthly break-even revenue, so launch risk is still high.
Base steady case	$36,508	$6,389	$25,055	82.5%	$15,000	About $6.1k above monthly break-even revenue, so overhead starts to clear.
Full capacity case	$77,917	$11,298	$27,555	85.5%	$388,000	About $45.7k above monthly break-even revenue, so the model has a wide cushion.

What breaks this key duplication break-even plan fastest?

Stress test

This plan starts about $2.7k monthly underwater before timing effects. A 10% sales drop or a 10% overhead jump pushes the gap to roughly $4.7k to $4.9k, so traffic and cost control decide survival.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change; monthly revenue is $23,833 and fixed costs are $22,138.	$26,550	$2,717 gap	The base plan still needs more sales to clear fixed costs.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue falls 10% to $21,450.	$26,106	$4,656 gap	Weak walk-ins quickly widen the loss.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed costs rise 10% to $24,352.	$28,764	$4,931 gap	Extra overhead needs more sales right away.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise 3 points to 215%.	$27,260	$3,427 gap	Blank price increases or paid ads can eat margin.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10%, variable expenses rise to 215%, and fixed costs rise 10%.	$28,964	$7,514 gap	Slow traffic plus higher overhead breaks the model fastest.

Can this key duplication shop clear break-even before you sign the lease and buy the machines?

Founder checklist

Yes—don’t lock the lease, machines, or hires until demand, margin, and cash can clear the model’s $27.2K monthly break-even. The first test is whether blended orders can reach about 2,200 a month at a $12.33 ticket.

1Traffic Proof2,200/mo

Confirm local traffic and leads can support about 2,200 blended orders per month before you sign a lease.

2Fixed Load$22.1K/mo

Add rent, wages, and overhead now, and only open if sales can cover the full monthly fixed load.

3Margin Mix81.5% CM

Track standard, high-security, and automotive jobs separately so the blended contribution margin stays near 81.5%.

4Staffing Ramp3.5 FTE

Hold back extra hiring until orders can support the Year 1 staffing load of 3.5 full-time equivalents.

5Supplier Lock$10K inv.

Secure blanks, fobs, and programming supply before buying the opening inventory so the first month does not stall.

6Cash Cushion$94K + $754K

Phase the $94K startup capex and keep cash above the $754K minimum, because Year 1 EBITDA is still negative.