Eco-Lodge Break-Even Analysis: About $95K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $32.8K/mo Base overhead

Contribution margin 82% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $39.9K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 1 Launch break-even

Break-even calculator

Use monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs to see if the lodge clears break-even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue has to cover variable costs first, then fixed costs. $ Slow month Peak month Variable expenses These rise with occupancy, sales, and guest turnover. $ Tight costs Higher costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $150,000 $183,000 revenue - $33,000 variable expenses

Margin ratio

82%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs These are the monthly costs break-even has to absorb. $ Lean base Scaled base

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which lodge expenses stay fixed, and which move with bookings?

Cost classification

Break-even is only reliable if fixed overhead stays fixed and booking-driven items move with sales. Here, the monthly base is heavy, so misclassifying utilities, labor, or supplies can make Month 1 break-even look safer than it is.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Property Lease/Mortgage	Fixed	Include the full $15,000 per month in overhead before calculating required room revenue.	Treating the payment as occupancy-driven.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Start with the $5,500 monthly base, then stress-test usage spikes as occupied room nights rise.	Leaving seasonal or high-occupancy spike risk out.
Insurance	Fixed	Include the recurring $2,200 per month in fixed overhead for the planning range.	Excluding it from overhead.
Property Taxes	Fixed	Include the recurring $3,500 per month in fixed overhead even when occupancy is low.	Leaving taxes out of the break-even base.
Food & Beverage Ingredients	Variable	Model as 8% of revenue in the first year, declining to 7% by the mature year.	Using flat dollars instead of a sales-linked rate.
Guest Amenities & Supplies	Variable	Model as 2% of revenue in the first year, then about 1.8% from the third year onward.	Forgetting that occupied rooms consume supplies.
Marketing & Sales Commissions	Variable	Model as 5% of revenue in the first year, easing to 4.5% from the third year onward.	Treating booking volume as free.
Housekeeping Staff	Semi-fixed	Add labor in staffing steps as occupancy grows from 55% in the first year to 82% in the fifth year.	Hiring full peak staff before demand proves out.

How does break-even shift from a lean opening to a full eco-lodge build?

Scenario table

Higher room count, occupancy, and rate push revenue up faster than costs, so the cushion widens from the lean case to the full case. The model is already past break-even in Month 1, but the launch period still carries the most cash pressure.

Planning assumptions only; actual results will move with room mix, pricing, and cost control.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean opening year	$188.8k	$34.0k	$78.0k	82.0%	$76.8k	Positive cushion, but still the tightest case.
Base year 3 case	$377.3k	$62.7k	$90.2k	83.4%	$224.4k	Comfortably above break-even with a wider buffer.
Full mature year	$542.2k	$87.3k	$106.0k	83.9%	$348.9k	Strong cushion; break-even risk is low if costs hold.

What breaks the eco-lodge break-even plan first?

Stress test

Base plan clears fixed costs, but steady occupancy still matters. Combined pressure cuts the buffer from about $76,800 to about $37,800, so softer weekend bookings and cost creep are the real risk.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$95,100	$76,800 cushion	The base plan clears fixed costs, but occupancy still needs to hold.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue drops 15% to about $160,500.	$95,100	$53,600 cushion	Softer weekend bookings eat the buffer fast.
Fixed cost rise	Fixed overhead rises 10% to about $85,800.	$104,600	$69,000 cushion	Lease, utilities, or staffing creep can push break-even up.
Margin pressure	Variable costs rise from 18% to 23% of revenue.	$101,300	$67,400 cushion	Food, cleaning, and sales commissions can trim the cushion.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 15%, variable costs rise to 23%, and fixed overhead climbs 10%.	$111,400	$37,800 cushion	This leaves little room for weak ancillary sales or surprises.

Is the eco-lodge ready to commit to the lease and build?

Founder checklist

Don’t sign the lease or start the build until the 30-room Year 1 mix, the $4.48M capex plan, and the 55% opening occupancy case all hold together. The model still shows -$2.851M minimum cash in Month 12, so timing and funding matter as much as EBITDA.

1Room Mix30 rooms

Confirm the Year 1 mix of 10 Forest Cabins, 8 Lake View Suites, 6 Canopy Tents, 4 Riverside Villas, and 2 Mountain Lofts before any construction spend, because that base drives room revenue.

2Monthly Carry$78.0K/mo

Add $32.75K of fixed overhead to $45.25K of Year 1 payroll and make sure room revenue can cover the $78.0K monthly carry before you sign a long-term lease or mortgage.

3Occupancy Plan55%

Test whether the opening month can really hit 55% occupancy in Year 1, because that is the first demand gate for a 30-room lodge.

4Payroll Ramp$45.25K/mo

Hire to the room count, not hope, because Year 1 payroll is already $45,250 per month and the staffing plan grows in later years.

5Unit Margin82% CM

Check that each occupied night keeps the 82% contribution margin after 10% Year 1 COGS and 8% variable expense, so fixed costs do not eat the margin.

6Cash Cushion-$2.9M

Keep enough reserve to survive the Month 12 low point, because minimum cash falls to -$2.851M and payback does not arrive until Month 45.