Elderly Care Break-Even Analysis: $775K Monthly Revenue Target

Fixed costs $44.0K/mo Year 1 base

Contribution margin 73% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $60.3K/mo Revenue target

Break-even timing Month 4 Model breakeven

Break-even calculator

Use this to test how monthly revenue, direct costs, and overhead set the break-even point.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the cash coming in each month before direct costs. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These rise with sales, like caregiver wages, travel, and payment fees. $ Low direct High direct

Money available to cover fixed costs $119,100 $163,000 revenue - $43,900 variable expenses

Margin ratio

73%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead your margin has to cover. $ Light overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which senior care expenses are fixed, and which move with billable hours?

Cost classification

Month 4 break-even only holds if each expense is tied to the right driver. Misclassifying caregiver hours, onboarding, or stepped staff hiring can make the model look profitable before cash flow is safe.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Caregiver Wages & Benefits	Variable	Model as 20.0% of revenue in the first year, falling to 18.0% by the fifth year; it should rise with billable hours and client volume.	Treating caregiver labor as fixed payroll and overstating margin when hours grow.
Caregiver Insurance & Training	Semi-variable	Use 3.0% of revenue in the first year, declining to 2.5% by the fifth year; keep it tied to active caregivers and client load.	Leaving training flat while adding clients and caregivers.
Payment Processing Fees	Variable	Apply 1.0% of revenue in the first year, then 0.8% from the third year onward; it moves with paid invoices.	Excluding card and payment fees from each client payment.
Client Onboarding & Welcome Kits	Variable	Model at 0.8% of revenue in the first year and 0.5% from the fourth year onward; it moves with new client volume.	Spreading onboarding spend like fixed overhead instead of tying it to new clients.
Caregiver Travel Reimbursement	Variable	Use 1.5% of revenue in the first year, tapering to 1.2% by the fourth year; it should track client visits and billable-hour density.	Ignoring travel drag when schedules spread across more service areas.
Office Rent	Fixed	Include $3,500/month from Month 1 through Month 60; it does not change with billable hours inside the current office capacity.	Allocating rent per client and making it fall when volume dips.
Staff Salaries	Semi-fixed	Treat management and support roles as step expenses; care coordinators rise from 1.0 FTE in the first year to 5.0 FTE in the fifth year.	Holding overhead headcount flat after client volume scales.
Annual Marketing Budget	Semi-fixed	Use $150,000 in the first year, stepping up to $1,200,000 by the fifth year; customer acquisition cost falls from $1,000 to $700.	Modeling marketing as a constant revenue percentage instead of planned spend steps.

How does break-even change from a lean care schedule to a full elderly care schedule?

Scenario table

At $2,500 of blended monthly revenue per active customer and 35 billable hours, the business only turns when customer density rises enough to cover a $565k fixed base. So the break-even line moves with scheduling fill, not just topline growth.

Planning assumptions only; actual census, staffing, and service mix can move results.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean care schedule	$625k	$169k	$565k	73.0%	$(109k)	Still below break-even; density is too thin.
Base care schedule	$775k	$209k	$565k	73.0%	$1k	Near break-even; a small lift in active clients clears overhead.
Full care schedule	$1,000k	$270k	$565k	73.0%	$165k	Above break-even; enough cushion to absorb swings.

What pushes this senior care plan past break-even?

Stress test

At $775k monthly revenue, $565k fixed costs, and a 73% contribution margin, the cushion is tiny. Revenue dips, wage creep, travel waste, or overhead hires can push break-even out fast.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$774k	$1k cushion	Tiny cushion; one bad month matters.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue falls 10% to $697k.	$774k	$57k gap	Weak referrals can leave caregivers underused.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed overhead rises by $100k.	$912k	$100k gap	Admin hires before recurring revenue raise the floor.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise from 27% to 32% of revenue.	$831k	$56k gap	Overtime and long travel routes eat the margin.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10%, variable expenses rise to 32%, and fixed costs rise by $100k.	$979k	$191k gap	Weak referrals, overtime, and overhead stack fast.

Can you prove 31 active customers before you hire caregivers and sign an office lease?

Founder checklist

Don’t hire caregivers or lock in space until demand can support 31 active customers, or 1,085 monthly billable hours, and you have cash through the Month 2 low point. At Year 1 pricing, that puts you right at the current break-even line.

1Active Demand31 customers

Verify you can reach 31 active customers, or 1,085 monthly billable hours, before adding caregivers; at Year 1 pricing that is about $77.5k of monthly revenue.

2Fixed Load$56.5K/mo

Check that office, payroll, and marketing stay near $56.5k a month, because that is the Year 1 overhead your current break-even math has to cover.

3Margin Stack73% CM

Confirm the plan mix still leaves about 73% contribution after wages, insurance, processing, onboarding, travel, and platform usage; if it falls, break-even slips fast.

4Care Coverage35 hrs/customer

Verify scheduling can cover 35 billable hours per active customer without gaps, since 31 customers already require 1,085 monthly hours and service misses will hit retention.

5Cash Cushion$745K

Hold at least the Month 2 minimum cash need of $745k, and stage the $290k launch capex stack so the $60k vehicle fleet waits until demand is proven.

6Launch Demand$1.0K CAC

Test whether early marketing can hold CAC near $1,000 while the $150k Year 1 budget funds growth; if screening, scheduling, or payroll float is weak, ramp-up gets expensive fast.