Farm Stay Break-Even Analysis: $86k Monthly Revenue Target

Fixed costs $43.3K/mo Base overhead

Contribution margin 82% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $52.7K/mo Revenue target

Break-even timing Month 1 Launch month

Break-even calculator

Use this to test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against break-even for a farm stay.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the cash coming in each month before direct costs. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses Use costs that rise with guests, stays, food, and bookings. $ Low costs High costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $120,500 $147,000 revenue - $26,500 variable expenses

Margin ratio

82%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead contribution margin has to cover. $ Light overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which farm stay expenses are fixed, and which move with guest sales?

Cost classification

Break-even gets unreliable when guest-driven costs are buried in overhead. Keep fixed monthly commitments separate from variable items like food, guest supplies, and booking commissions so each occupied room carries the right margin.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Property Lease/Mortgage	Fixed	Treat the $15,000 monthly charge as overhead due regardless of occupancy.	Spreading the lease across booked nights and hiding low-season risk.
Insurance	Fixed	Include the $1,800 monthly premium in the fixed break-even base.	Reducing insurance when rooms are empty, even though the bill stays due.
Administrative Software	Fixed	Keep the $500 monthly system charge in fixed overhead.	Treating software as a booking-level fee instead of a standing platform charge.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Use the $3,500 monthly amount as a planning base, then track usage tied to occupied rooms, laundry, kitchen, and spa activity.	Putting all utilities in fixed overhead and missing high-occupancy usage spikes.
Property Maintenance	Semi-variable	Start with the $4,000 monthly maintenance budget, then separate guest-driven repairs and room turnover wear.	Assuming maintenance stays flat when occupancy rises from 55% to 78%.
Housekeeping Staff	Semi-fixed	Model labor in staffing steps: 2.0 FTE in the first year, 2.5 FTE in Year 3, and 3.0 FTE from Year 4.	Burying cleaning labor inside fixed overhead instead of showing the staffing step.
Restaurant Food Cost	Variable	Apply the food percentage to sales, starting at 8.0% in the first year and falling to 7.0% by Year 5.	Adding breakfast supplies to fixed overhead and overstating room margin.
Booking Commissions	Variable	Apply commissions to booked revenue, starting at 4.0% in the first year and 3.5% by Year 4.	Ignoring channel fees and making every occupied room look more profitable than it is.

How does break-even change across lean, base, and full farm stay cases?

Scenario table

As occupancy, rates, and room count rise, revenue climbs faster than variable costs. Labor steps up too, so the break-even cushion improves, but it still depends on keeping staffing tight.

Planning assumptions only; actual results will move with occupancy, pricing, staffing, and booking mix.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean case, 20 rooms	$87.9k	$15.8k	$70.6k	82.0%	$1.5k	Revenue is only a little above break-even, so one soft month can wipe out profit.
Base case, 23 rooms	$139.4k	$23.3k	$79.2k	83.3%	$37.0k	Revenue is well above break-even, giving a useful cushion.
Full case, 25 rooms	$182.0k	$28.2k	$86.3k	84.5%	$67.5k	Revenue is comfortably above break-even, but fixed labor stays heavy.

What breaks the farm stay break-even plan?

Stress test

Year 1 clears break-even, but the cushion is not wide. A 10% revenue miss, higher fixed costs, or a four-point margin hit can push the monthly plan into a gap fast.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$87,938	$0 gap	Works if occupancy and spend hold.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue drops 10% from the Year 1 plan to about $79,144.	$84,871	$5,727 gap	Soft midweek bookings can erase the cushion.
Fixed costs up	Fixed costs rise 10% above plan.	$94,741	$6,803 gap	Lease, utilities, and maintenance creep raises the bar.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses move from 18% to 22% of revenue.	$90,545	$2,607 gap	Higher commissions and guest costs squeeze margin.
Combined pressure	Occupancy falls to 45%, variable expenses rise to 22%, and fixed costs rise 10%.	$93,630	$21,166 gap	This is the squeeze point: demand, fees, and overhead all move wrong.

Is the farm stay ready to host paid guests before you sign the lease and spend the buildout cash?

Founder checklist

Yes, if the site clears the guest-flow checks and the opening math still holds. The model shows break-even in Month 1, but cash still bottoms at $629,000 in Month 9, so the real test is whether the farm can open cleanly and stay funded through the buildout.

1Site readiness335 room-nights/mo

Verify zoning, lodging, food, spa, and workshop permissions, plus septic, water, parking, lighting, emergency access, signage, fencing, animal separation, and guest paths, because Year 1 demand only works if the property can safely handle about 335 occupied room-nights a month.

2Fixed burn$70.6K/mo

Check that property costs and Year 1 payroll stay inside this monthly fixed load, or the farm stay will need far more occupancy than the model assumes.

3Margin check82% CM

Confirm food, beverage, guest supplies, and booking commissions stay near 18% of revenue, because that is what keeps contribution margin high enough for break-even to hold.

4Staff ramp$41.1K/mo

Verify the opening team can run on Year 1 payroll of $41,125 a month across 9.0 FTE, because room turns, meals, and guest service break fast when staffing is thin.

5Cash buffer$629K min

Hold at least this much cash through Month 9, because that is the low point before the buildout and working capital settle down.

6Capex gate$670K spend

Delay major spend until the plan can support the full $670,000 of furnishings, kitchen, farm equipment, spa, landscaping, utility, fleet, and workshop buildout.