Farm-to-Table Restaurant Break-Even: $174K Monthly Sales Target

Fixed costs $2.8K/mo Base monthly overhead

Contribution margin 80.5% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $3.5K/mo Revenue to cover base

Break-even timing Month 4 Model ramp point

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against break-even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue More revenue adds margin to cover fixed costs. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These rise with sales, like food, packaging, fees, and marketing. $ Lean costs Heavy costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $43,548 $53,040 revenue - $9,492 variable expenses

Margin ratio

82%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base that contribution margin must cover. $ Low fixed High fixed

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which farm-to-table restaurant expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even only works if each expense follows the right driver. Here, Year 1 variable items total 19.5% of sales, while fixed overhead starts at $2,780/month before payroll, so mixing them can move the Month 4 break-even target.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Food & Beverage Costs	Variable	Model at 13.5% of Year 1 sales, declining to 11.5% by Year 5.	Treating seasonal produce purchases as fixed rent-like spend.
Packaging & Disposables	Variable	Apply 2.0% of Year 1 sales, then step down to 1.6% by Year 5.	Forgetting packaging rises with each order served.
POS Transaction Fees	Variable	Apply 1.5% of Year 1 sales, falling to 1.1% by Year 5.	Putting card fees in fixed software subscriptions.
Event & Marketing Materials	Variable	Model at 2.5% of Year 1 sales, tapering to 2.1% by Year 5.	Budgeting events as flat monthly spend even when catering grows.
Commissary Kitchen Rent	Fixed	Carry $1,500/month from Month 1 through Month 60.	Spreading rent per cover and hiding the monthly cash floor.
Insurance, Permits, Vehicle, POS Subscription, Bookkeeping, Website	Fixed	Carry $1,280/month as recurring overhead across the planning range.	Leaving small monthly overhead out because each line looks minor.
Salaried Core Payroll	Semi-fixed	Start with Owner Operator, Lead Culinary Staff, and Sales Associate 1; add staff as FTE steps up over time.	Treating payroll as purely variable with covers served.

How does break-even change from a lean launch to a full operating setup for this restaurant?

Scenario table

Lean gets you to break-even with the smallest cost base, while base and full cases add revenue and margin, but also carry more payroll. Here’s the quick math: higher traffic helps, but fixed costs still set the break-even floor.

Planning assumptions only; actual results will vary with traffic, menu mix, and labor timing.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch case	$29,033	$5,661	$14,030	80.5%	$9,342	Above break-even, but the cushion is still tight.
Base staffing case	$53,040	$9,490	$17,468	82.1%	$26,082	Comfortable cushion if staffing stays on plan.
Full capacity case	$84,153	$13,717	$17,780	83.7%	$52,656	Strong cushion; break-even risk drops if mix holds.

What breaks the break-even plan if covers fall or costs rise?

Stress test

Year 1 has a solid cushion, but the plan gets tight fast if covers slip, local ingredient costs rise, or fixed overhead moves up. The combined stress case still clears break-even, but only by $2,786.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change from Year 1 plan.	$19,691	$9,342 cushion	Healthy cushion, but fixed overhead still sets the pace.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly sales fall 20%.	$19,691	$3,536 cushion	A traffic dip cuts the buffer by more than half.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed overhead rises 10%.	$19,171	$9,862 cushion	Higher overhead leaves less room for a weak week.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise 5 points.	$18,583	$10,450 cushion	Food cost pressure can erase profit faster than sales growth replaces it.
Combined pressure	Sales fall 20%, variable expenses rise 5 points, and fixed costs rise 10%.	$20,441	$2,786 cushion	This is the warning zone; another sales miss would put break-even at risk.

What should you verify before signing the lease and buying the kitchen buildout?

Founder checklist

Don’t sign the lease or buy the buildout until the site or commissary can support about 989 covers a month and roughly $17.4K in monthly sales. Here’s the quick math: $14.0K of fixed monthly cost divided by an 80.5% contribution margin points to that break-even level.

1Sales Target$17.4K/mo

Confirm opening-month traffic can get to 989 covers a month, or the Month 4 break-even path gets pushed out.

2Fixed Load$14.0K/mo

Test payroll plus rent, insurance, permits, vehicle, POS, bookkeeping, and web spend at about $14.0K a month, because that is the cost base you must carry.

3Margin Stack80.5% CM

Lock local supplier pricing and menu engineering so food, packaging, POS fees, and event marketing stay at 19.5% of sales and leave 80.5% contribution margin.

4Buildout$108K capex

Keep the trailer, kitchen gear, refrigeration, signage, catering kit, hookups, and ordering setup inside the $108K opening capex before Month 1 spend.

5Labor Ramp$11.25K/mo

Match the first-year payroll to demand, because owner pay, culinary staff, and one sales associate already set an $11.25K monthly labor base before part-time event staff starts in Month 13.

6Cash Cushion$813K

Hold enough cash for the Month 2 low point, since the model shows a minimum cash need of $813K before the operation steadies.