Check the order value, launch capex, and monthly cost stack before you sign the warehouse lease or place the first big inventory order. The model only works if Year 1 AOV, CAC, repeat buying, and staffing line up fast enough to reach Month 32 break-even.
1Order Value$63.25 AOVUse the Year 1 mix and 1.10 units per order to confirm AOV lands near $63.25, because paid traffic only works if each order carries enough revenue.
2Launch Inventory$50KConfirm the $50,000 inventory buy covers all five lines—necklaces, handbags, scarves, earrings, and bracelets—and keep the full $118,000 launch capex separate from operating break-even.
3Fixed Load$19.3K/moYear 1 fixed costs plus base payroll run about $19.3K a month, and the $1,800 warehouse rent has to fit inside that stack, not push it higher.
4Margin Check82.5% CMProduct sourcing, inbound freight, shipping, and payment fees total 17.5% of revenue in Year 1, so contribution margin is 82.5% before ads and overhead.
5Ad Payback$30K / $45 CACHold the Year 1 ad budget at $30,000 and test the $45 CAC against the 25% repeat rate; each customer is only about 1.30 orders, or roughly $22.8 of contribution after CAC.
6Payroll GateMonth 32 / $231KDo not add the Marketing Specialist, Merchandising Assistant, Customer Service Rep, or Operations Coordinator until the Month 32 break-even path is credible and the $231,000 cash trough is covered.