Fitness Center Break-Even Analysis: $130K Monthly Revenue Target

Fixed costs $84.4K/mo Base overhead

Contribution margin 65.1% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $129.6K/mo Revenue needed

Break-even timing Month 9 Launch break-even

Break-even calculator

Test whether monthly revenue covers variable expenses and the fixed monthly cost base.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Use monthly membership and service sales before costs. $ Lower sales Higher sales Variable expenses Use costs that rise with member volume and sales. $ Lower direct Higher direct

Money available to cover fixed costs $124,000 $150,000 revenue - $26,000 variable expenses

Margin ratio

83%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs Use rent, payroll, and other monthly overhead. $ Lean base Heavier base

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which fitness center expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even gets unreliable when fixed overhead and sales-linked costs get mixed. For this fitness center, the key is separating rent and insurance from costs that rise with members, sessions, and payment volume.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Facility Rent	Fixed	Include $28,000 per month in overhead before calculating required revenue.	Sizing the space before demand is proven.
Payroll	Semi-fixed	Include Year 1 payroll of $41,750 per month in overhead until staffing changes.	Hiring full capacity too early.
Equipment Maintenance & Repairs	Variable	Deduct 8.5% of revenue in the first year when calculating contribution margin.	Treating repairs as a one-time item only.
Fitness Software & Technology Platforms	Semi-variable	Model the 4.2% first-year expense as partly tied to member volume and usage.	Ignoring per-member platform fees.
Utilities & Energy	Semi-variable	Start with the $4,500 monthly base, then allow for heavier usage months.	Treating high-traffic months as flat.
Payment Processing Fees	Variable	Deduct 2.8% of first-year revenue before contribution margin.	Modeling gross deposits as net revenue.
Cleaning & Janitorial Services	Semi-fixed	Include $2,200 per month, then step it up as traffic bands increase.	Under-budgeting peak-hour cleaning.
Insurance Premiums	Fixed	Include $3,200 per month regardless of member visits.	Leaving insurance out of break-even overhead.

How does break-even change across lean, base, and full fitness center formats?

Scenario table

The mix shifts the break-even point because margins and fixed staffing move together as the club scales. Month 9 is the break-even signal, but Year 1 EBITDA still lands at negative $246,000.

Planning assumptions only; actual results will move with membership mix, pricing, staffing, and local demand.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean opening case	$129,769	$45,419	$84,350	65.0%	$0	Needs about 1,047 member-equivalents to cover fixed costs.
Base scaling case	$152,247	$49,480	$102,767	67.5%	$0	Highlighted case; it needs about 1,103 member-equivalents.
Mature steady-state case	$193,205	$52,938	$140,267	72.6%	$0	Best margin mix, but it still needs about 1,042 member-equivalents.

What breaks the break-even plan for this fitness center?

Stress test

Here’s the quick math: first-year break-even is $129,769 a month, and Month 8 cash still bottoms at negative $314,000. The plan gets fragile if launch revenue slips, fixed costs rise to $140,267 by Year 5, or margin falls to 65% before recurring sales catch up.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	Year 1 fixed costs stay at $84,350 a month and contribution margin holds at 65%.	$129,769	$0 cushion	Break-even lands by Month 9, but cash turns negative first.
Revenue shortfall	Launch-month revenue slips below the $129,769 break-even threshold.	$129,769	$0 cushion	Any opening miss pushes break-even later.
Fixed-cost increase	Monthly fixed costs rise to $140,267 by Year 5 as staffing expands.	$193,205	$63,436 gap	Payroll growth lifts the sales bar by about 49%.
Margin pressure	Contribution margin falls to 65% as fees and discounts rise.	$215,795	$86,026 gap	Each sales dollar covers less overhead, so break-even jumps.
Combined pressure	Year 5 fixed costs hit and CAC stays at $85 while class attach stays weak.	$215,795	$86,026 gap	Payroll and weak upsell mix can drain cash before scale shows up.

Can this fitness center hit break-even before you lock the lease and buy the equipment?

Founder checklist

Do not commit to the lease or the build until the member pipeline, pricing, and cost base can support break-even. The model shows Month 9 break-even, a Month 8 cash low, and a -$314K minimum cash draw, so runway and demand have to be real.

1Demand Proof1,047 actives

Before signing the lease, verify the market can support about 1,047 active customer-equivalents at the Year 1 mix and keep CAC near $85.

2Lease Load$42.6K/mo

Check that rent at $28K plus utilities, insurance, cleaning, and other fixed costs stay coverable from day one, because this is the monthly bill before payroll.

3Margin Mix65% CM

Verify Year 1 variable costs stay near 35% of revenue so contribution margin stays about 65% before rent and payroll hit.

4Capex Timing$935K capex

Stage the $935K equipment and build-out spend across Months 1 to 5, and do not place the big orders before opening demand is proven.

5Staffing Ramp$41.8K/mo

Hire in step with demand so Year 1 payroll stays near $41.8K a month, because early overstaffing pushes break-even out fast.

6Runway-$314K, M8

Require cash to survive through the Month 8 low and reach Month 9 break-even, or treat the plan as underfunded.