Flight School Break-Even Analysis: Month 13 Revenue Target

Break-Even Metric Cards

Fixed costs $20.1K Monthly overhead base

Contribution margin 80.1% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $25.1K Monthly revenue target

Break-even timing Month 13 Model break-even

Break-Even Calculator

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test whether monthly revenue covers variable expenses and the fixed cost base.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue This is the top line that funds the rest of the month. $ Lower sales Higher sales Variable expenses These are the direct costs that rise as training volume grows. $ Lower costs Higher costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $51,264 $64,000 revenue - $12,736 variable expenses

Margin ratio

80%

Covers fixed costs

$9,417 short

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base that contribution margin has to cover. $ Lean setup Heavier setup

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which flight school expenses are fixed, and which move with student volume?

Cost classification

Break-even is only useful if the $20,100/month fixed expense base stays separate from items that rise with flight activity. Treat instructor capacity and aircraft commitments as step costs, or Month 13 break-even can look safer than it is.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Hangar and Classroom Rent	Fixed	Include $12,000/month in overhead from Month 1.	Tying rent to student starts.
Fleet Insurance	Fixed	Include $4,000/month from the launch month.	Waiting until aircraft utilization improves.
Administrative Software Subscriptions	Fixed	Include $800/month before the first student arrives.	Leaving setup tools out of overhead.
Chief Flight Instructor	Semi-fixed	Plan for $90,000/year before full enrollment.	Matching salary only to booked lessons.
Certified Flight Instructor	Semi-fixed	Add $70,000/year per FTE as capacity steps up.	Assuming instructor labor scales smoothly.
Aircraft Operating Costs	Variable	Track at 8.0% of first-year revenue with flight activity.	Treating usage-driven aircraft spend as fixed.
Aircraft Lease/Financing	Semi-fixed	Model the 5.9% first-year revenue assumption with required commitments.	Ignoring payments when utilization is low.
Student Training Materials	Variable	Tie the 2.0% first-year revenue assumption to student volume.	Loading materials into fixed overhead.

How does break-even change across lean, base, and full flight school setups?

Scenario table

Break-even moves with fill rate and staffing. Lean stays far below fixed cost, base sits near break-even, and full adds a cushion; that lines up with Month 13 break-even and a Year 1 loss.

Planning assumptions only; actual results will move with enrollment, utilization, and staffing.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean pre-lease setup	$32,500	$6,500	$51,800	80%	-$25,800	Too thin to cover fixed load; don’t sign the lease yet.
Base launch budget	$64,000	$12,700	$51,800	80%	-$500	Almost at break-even; a small volume lift closes the gap.
Full expansion timing	$104,250	$19,050	$61,600	82%	$23,600	Comfortable cushion; supports added instructors and aircraft growth.

What breaks the flight school break-even plan?

Stress test

Here’s the quick math: about $51.8k of monthly fixed load against about $64.0k of Year 1 revenue leaves a thin cushion. A 10% revenue dip, a 10% overhead jump, or a 5-point margin squeeze can push the school back under water.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$64,600	$600 gap	Only a sliver of cushion.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue falls 10% to $57,600.	$64,600	$7,000 gap	Lower student starts can erase the cushion.
Fixed-cost pressure	Monthly fixed overhead rises 10% to about $56,900.	$71,200	$7,200 gap	Rent, insurance, or staffing can move break-even fast.
Margin pressure	Variable expense rate rises 5 points, cutting contribution margin to about 75.1%.	$69,000	$5,000 gap	Fuel, maintenance, or downtime can squeeze profit.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10%, fixed overhead rises 10%, and margin drops to about 75.1%.	$75,900	$18,300 gap	A weak month plus cost pressure can break the plan.

What should you verify before you sign a flight school hangar and aircraft plan?

Founder checklist

Before you lock in the hangar, aircraft, and hiring plan, test the Year 1 demand and cash math against break-even. The model needs 55 students in Year 1, $20.1K of fixed costs a month, and $450K of cash by Month 13 to stay believable.

1Year 1 mix20/25/10

Verify you can fill 20 career pilot, 25 private pilot, and 10 advanced endorsement students in Year 1 before you commit to fixed space.

2Fixed base$20.1K/mo

Make sure the $12,000 hangar and classroom rent fits inside the full $20,100 monthly fixed stack with utilities, insurance, software, supplies, and services.

3Margin gate80.1% CM

Check that Year 1 revenue of $64,000 a month leaves about $51,264 after variable costs, so payroll and rent still have room to fit.

4Staffing ramp5.5 FTE

Verify the Year 1 team of 5.5 full-time equivalent roles, including 3.0 instructor FTE, can cover 20 billable days a month at 50% occupancy without pushing wages ahead of sales.

5Cash runway$450K / M13

Keep at least $450,000 of cash through Month 13, because $400,000 of early capital spend hits first and the low cash point also lands in Month 13.

6Launch gatePre-launch

Confirm airport access, fleet insurance near the modeled $4,000 a month, and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) training responsibilities before you advertise career outcomes.