Freight Forwarding Break-Even Analysis: Month 15 Revenue Test

Fixed costs $36.1K/mo Core overhead

Contribution margin 81% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $44.5K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 15 Base-case ramp

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue against variable expenses and fixed costs to see how quickly a freight forwarding setup reaches break-even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the cash coming in each month before direct costs. $ Slow start Strong flow Variable expenses These rise with revenue, like processing, compliance, and sales spend. $ Low spend High spend

Money available to cover fixed costs $30,780 $38,000 revenue - $7,220 variable expenses

Margin ratio

81%

Covers fixed costs

$30,287 short

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead your margin has to cover. $ Lean overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which freight forwarding expenses are fixed, and which move with sales at break-even?

Cost classification

Break-even is reliable only if fixed payroll and rent stay separate from percentage-based fees. In this model, pass-through freight reimbursements should stay outside retained revenue, so variable rates apply to platform revenue, not gross shipment value.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Office Rent	Fixed	Include $3,000 per month from Month 1 through Month 60 in monthly overhead.	Treating the lease as shipment-volume driven.
Software Licenses General	Fixed	Include $1,500 per month through Month 60 until seat growth is modeled separately.	Ignoring later seat growth and access needs.
CEO	Fixed	Include $180,000 annual salary, or $15,000 per month, as recurring payroll.	Leaving executive payroll out of break-even.
Lead Engineer	Semi-fixed	Use $11,667 per month in the first year, then step up as FTE rises.	Modeling added engineering capacity as per-order spend.
Transaction Processing Fees	Variable	Apply 3.0% of retained revenue in the first year, declining to 2.0% in the fifth year.	Applying the rate to gross pass-through freight reimbursements.
Carrier Vetting & Compliance	Variable	Apply 2.0% of retained revenue in the first year, declining to 1.5% in the fifth year.	Treating compliance as only a one-time onboarding spend.
Sales & Marketing	Variable	Apply 10.0% of retained revenue in the first year, declining to 6.0% in the fifth year.	Double-counting CAC budgets and revenue-based marketing.
Platform Infrastructure	Variable	Apply 4.0% of retained revenue in the first year, declining to 3.0% in the fifth year.	Treating usage-linked infrastructure as flat overhead.

How does break-even shift from a lean freight forwarding setup to a full-service model?

Scenario table

Break-even moves mostly because payroll, overhead, and acquisition spend change by setup. The fuller model has a better contribution margin, but the fixed cost base is still much larger, so the cash floor stays high.

Planning assumptions only; these break-even figures are not guarantees.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean freight forwarding startup	$754k	$143k	$611k	81.0%	$0	Contribution covers the core overhead, but there is little room for extra acquisition spend.
Base freight forwarding platform	$837k	$146k	$691k	82.5%	$0	Break-even is still tight, so buyer growth spend can quickly push cash needs higher.
Full-service freight forwarding operation	$984k	$123k	$861k	87.5%	$0	The margin cushion improves, but the larger fixed base keeps the break-even bar high.

What breaks the break-even plan for freight forwarding?

Stress test

The plan breaks first on shipper acquisition speed and retained fee yield, not on fixed overhead alone. A 10% revenue dip or a 5-point margin slip pushes break-even out fast, and higher overhead turns a small miss into a real monthly gap.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change to the base case.	$908k	$0 gap	At plan, revenue only just covers overhead.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly retained revenue falls 10% to about $817k while margin stays 81%.	$908k	$91k gap	Slower shipper wins leave the model short of overhead coverage.
Fixed-cost pressure	Monthly overhead rises 10% to about $810k.	$999k	$91k gap	More fixed spend pushes the revenue target above the plan.
Margin pressure	Contribution margin falls from 81% to 76%.	$968k	$60k gap	Lower retained fees per shipment raise break-even fast.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10%, margin falls to 76%, and overhead rises 10%.	$1.065M	$248k gap	Slower volume, weaker margin, and higher overhead stack into a deep loss.

Can you sign the lease and start hiring before freight revenue clears break-even?

Founder checklist

Don’t sign the lease or add headcount until retained freight revenue can still cover the Year 1 fixed load and the Month 15 break-even plan. If the quote flow, CAC, or cash cushion is off, wait.

1Lease fit$3.0K/mo

Sign the office lease only if $3,000 monthly rent still fits the break-even plan.

2Payroll load$61.1K/mo

Add people beyond the Year 1 team only when retained revenue can carry the monthly payroll and overhead base.

3Carrier access70/20/10

Confirm trucking, rail, and ocean access before live quotes, because the Year 1 mix assumes that split.

4Quote flow3-mode flow

Document one quoting path and customs paperwork steps where needed, so every shipment gets priced the same way.

5CAC test$200 / $500

Test buyer CAC at $200 and seller CAC at $500 in Year 1 before you scale spend, because acquisition cost drives breakeven speed.

6Cash runway$311K / M14

Keep at least $311k of cash through Month 14, and do not scale platform or marketing if breakeven slips past Month 15.