Gastropub Break-Even Revenue: About $27K Per Month In Year 1

Fixed costs $8.7K/mo Monthly overhead base

Contribution margin 81.5% After variable spend

Break-even revenue $10.6K/mo Needed each month

Break-even timing Month 3 Forecast break point

Break-even calculator

Test whether monthly sales can cover variable costs and the fixed monthly bill.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the pool that covers variable costs and overhead. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses Food, drink, packaging, card fees, and promo spend rise with sales. $ Lean spend Heavy spend

Money available to cover fixed costs $56,455 $68,513 revenue - $12,058 variable expenses

Margin ratio

82%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs Rent, payroll, utilities, and admin land here each month. $ Low overhead High overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses are fixed and which move with sales in this gastropub break-even model?

Cost classification

Break-even is reliable only when monthly overhead, step-up staffing, and sales-linked spend are kept separate. Keep the $163,000 startup capex out of monthly break-even; it affects cash need, not operating break-even.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Rent	Fixed	Include $6,500 per month as baseline overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Treating rent as volume-driven because sales rise.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Start with $900 per month, then stress-test higher usage as covers grow.	Modeling utilities as fully fixed during busier periods.
Licenses & Permits	Fixed	Include $100 per month as stable operating overhead.	Dropping required permits from break-even overhead.
Payroll	Semi-fixed	Use about $13,333 per month in the first year, then step up as planned FTEs increase.	Making all labor move with each sale.
Organic Ingredients	Variable	Apply 12.0% of sales in the first year, falling to 10.0% by the mature year.	Using a flat dollar amount instead of sales percentage.
Eco-friendly Packaging	Variable	Apply 2.0% of sales in the first year, falling to 1.5% by the mature year.	Forgetting packaging rises with order volume.
Marketing & Promotions	Variable	Apply 3.0% of sales in the first year, tapering to 2.0% by the mature year.	Treating promotions as fixed overhead with no sales link.
Payment Processing Fees	Variable	Apply 1.5% of sales in the first year, declining to 1.0% by the mature year.	Leaving card fees out of contribution margin.

How does break-even shift across lean, base, and full operations for this gastropub?

Scenario table

Break-even moves with sales mix, kitchen pace, and payroll. The lean case is basically flat, the base case is solidly profitable, and the full case has the widest cushion.

These are planning assumptions, not guarantees, so actual results will move with traffic, menu mix, and staffing.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean pub-night case	$271k	$50k	$221k	81.5%	$0k	Beverage sales have to hold, or this slips under break-even.
Base gastropub case	$457k	$84k	$221k	81.6%	$152k	Tight beverage mix, kitchen scheduling, and payroll keep it above break-even.
Full weekend-led case	$686k	$121k	$246k	82.4%	$319k	Higher traffic gives a clear cushion if staffing and prep stay disciplined.

What pushes this gastropub break-even plan off track?

Stress test

The plan breaks first on weaker weekday traffic and margin slip. A 20% revenue drop still leaves cushion, but if rent, utilities, food cost, and payroll all drift up together, profit gets thin fast.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$271,000	$186,000 cushion	Break-even is covered, but weekday traffic has to hold.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue falls 20% from plan.	$271,000	$94,000 cushion	Slow weekday covers are the first pressure point.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed costs rise 10% across rent and utilities.	$299,000	$158,000 cushion	Higher overhead cuts the cushion even if sales hold.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise 5 points from food waste and payroll pressure.	$289,000	$168,000 cushion	Waste, comped meals, and overtime close the gap fast.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 20%, fixed costs rise 10%, and variable pressure adds 5 points.	$329,000	$36,000 cushion	Profit gets thin, so weak beverage attachment becomes a real risk.

What should you verify before you sign the lease and put cash into opening this gastropub?

Founder checklist

Check the fixed-cost load, opening capex, and early traffic against the model before you commit. If the Month 2 cash need, 14.0% COGS, and Month 3 break-even do not hold, the opening will run hot on cash.

1Lease Fit$8.77K/mo

Verify rent, utilities, insurance, and permits stay near plan so fixed overhead does not push break-even higher before sales start.

2Opening Capex$163K

Price the full opening package at the model level before you order equipment, build-out, furniture, and launch spend.

3Demand Proof790/wk

Check that first-year covers can reach 790 a week, with Friday through Sunday carrying the load while weekdays stay steady.

4Margin Mix81.5% CM

Hold COGS at 14.0% and variable fees at 4.5%, which leaves about 81.5% contribution margin (CM); keep food and drink assumptions separate.

5Staffing Ramp$160K/yr

Build the first-year team around $160K in wages and add people only when traffic supports them, or labor will outrun volume.

6Cash Cushion$793K

Keep the Month 2 cash need covered, because break-even lands in Month 3 and payback still takes 18 months.