Geotextile Manufacturing Break-Even Analysis: About $100k/Month

Fixed costs $80K/mo Year 1 base

Contribution margin 79% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $101K/mo Revenue target

Break-even timing Month 1 Launch month

Break-even calculator

This calculator checks whether monthly revenue covers variable costs and fixed overhead for geotextile manufacturing.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Use gross monthly sales before costs; this is the top line that funds overhead. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses Include direct materials, labor, freight, commissions, and bid costs that rise with sales. $ Low cost High cost

Money available to cover fixed costs $1,185,000 $1,450,000 revenue - $265,000 variable expenses

Margin ratio

82%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs Include wages and overhead that stay in place each month even if sales slow. $ Low overhead High overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which geotextile manufacturing expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even is only useful if each expense follows the right driver. Unit inputs and selling fees move with volume, while lease, admin overhead, and base payroll must be covered even in Month 1; treat depreciation outside cash break-even when excluded.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Facility Lease	Fixed	Include $15,000 per month in the base break-even load.	Spreading rent per unit and hiding low-output risk.
First-Year Salaried Payroll	Fixed	Include about $56,000 per month for the first-year salaried team.	Leaving salaries out because direct labor is modeled per unit.
Raw Material Polymer	Variable	Apply $20 to $45 per unit based on product mix.	Using one average input rate across all fabrics.
Direct Manufacturing Labor	Variable	Apply $10 to $25 per unit as production volume changes.	Double-counting supervisors as unit labor.
Sales Commissions	Variable	Apply 3.0% of revenue in the first year, falling to 1.5% by Year 5.	Modeling commissions as fixed payroll.
Project Bid Costs	Variable	Apply 2.0% of revenue in the first year, falling to 1.0% by Year 5.	Treating bid spend as overhead instead of sales-linked.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Carry Utilities Admin Office at $1,200 per month and add Utilities Factory at 0.3% of revenue.	Treating all utilities like rent.
Sales Manager FTE Step-Ups	Semi-fixed	Hold at 1.0 FTE in Years 1 and 2, then step to 1.5 FTE in Year 3 and 2.0 FTE in Years 4 and 5.	Smoothing later hires into the opening-month break-even point.

How does break-even change from a lean Year 1 run to a full Year 5 run?

Scenario table

As volume rises, fixed plant and payroll spread over more sales, so break-even gets safer. The lean case already clears it, but the base and full cases show the real cushion if price, input cost, labor, and freight stay on plan.

Planning cases only; these figures are assumptions, not guarantees, and they move if order volume, input pricing, labor, or freight drift from plan.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean Year 1 run	$1.45M	$270.8K	$80.0K	81.3%	$1.10M	Above break-even from launch, with a thinner cushion than later years.
Base Year 3 run	$2.81M	$457.6K	$94.6K	83.7%	$2.26M	Solid steady-state cushion; this is the best read on normal break-even risk.
Full Year 5 run	$4.35M	$642.9K	$106.5K	85.2%	$3.60M	Wide margin, but only if volume and cost control hold together.

What breaks the break-even plan if orders slow or resin costs jump?

Stress test

At launch, the plant’s break-even is about $100k a month versus $1.45m of modeled monthly revenue, with about $286.8k in variable costs and $80k in fixed costs. The real risk is margin erosion from slower orders, resin inflation, and fixed-cost creep.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$100k	$1.35m cushion	Wide cushion if sales hold.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue falls 20% on slower purchase orders.	$100k	$1.06m cushion	Still profitable, but headroom shrinks fast.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed payroll and overhead rise 10%.	$110k	$1.34m cushion	Overhead creep lifts the floor.
Margin pressure	Polymer cost rises 20%, adding about $19k a month.	$101k	$1.35m cushion	Resin spikes hit margin before volume does.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 20%, polymer rises 20%, and fixed costs rise 10%.	$112k	$1.05m cushion	Slow orders plus higher costs narrow headroom fast.

Can your pipeline, plant, and cash clear break-even before you sign the lease and buy the line?

Founder checklist

If you can’t clear the $100K monthly test and carry the $1.046M cash need, wait on the lease and the line. Test the mix, margin, and ramp first, then commit.

1Pipeline$100K/mo

Verify signed bids or customer commitments can support at least $100K in monthly revenue before you lock the lease or line, because break-even depends on real orders, not hopeful quoting.

2Year 1 Mix34,000 units

Check that Year 1 demand really spreads across 10,000 stabilization units, 7,000 drainage units, 5,000 erosion units, 8,000 filtration units, and 4,000 reinforcement units, because the mix drives plant load and pricing.

3Margin Stack81-83% CM

Confirm each product holds roughly 81% to 83% contribution margin after unit costs, commissions, and bid costs, or the revenue test will not turn into cash.

4Supply Lock$1.5M line

Secure polymer supply before you commit to the $1.5M manufacturing line, and verify utility capacity plus quality control steps before the first shipment.

5Fixed Load$56K/mo

Make sure the $15K facility lease and about $56K of Year 1 payroll fit the ramp, because fixed costs start before volume catches up.

6Cash Cushion$1.046M

Hold at least the $1.046M minimum cash point, and keep the $2.67M capex build separate from operating break-even so you do not confuse plant spend with month-to-month survival.