Golf Course Break-Even Analysis: $127K Monthly Revenue Target

Fixed costs $76.8K/mo Base overhead

Contribution margin 73.5% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $104.4K/mo Revenue floor

Break-even timing Month 1 Covered at launch

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue against variable expenses and fixed costs, then see how fast the course reaches break-even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the cash coming in each month and sets the pool that covers direct costs and overhead. $ Quiet month Peak month Variable expenses These are costs that rise with play volume, like booking fees, turf care, and cost of goods sold. $ Tight costs Higher costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $480,384 $582,283 revenue - $101,900 variable expenses

Margin ratio

83%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs These costs stay on the clock each month and must be covered by contribution margin. $ Lean overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which golf course expenses are fixed, and which move with sales volume?

Cost classification

Break-even gets reliable only when round-driven spend is kept separate from monthly overhead. Treat capital projects, like irrigation upgrades and cart fleet purchases, outside operating break-even math.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Food Beverage COGS	Variable	Model as 40% of related sales in the first year.	Counting it as overhead instead of sales-linked spend.
Pro Shop Merchandise COGS	Variable	Model as 20% of related sales.	Using one blended margin for shop and course revenue.
Marketing & Booking Fees	Variable	Apply at 50% where fees rise with bookings and sales volume.	Leaving fees flat while rounds grow from 30,000 to 45,000.
Turf Care & Water	Variable	Apply at 70% where usage rises with play and course activity.	Mixing recurring turf spend with irrigation upgrade capital spend.
Utilities	Fixed	Carry as $10,000 per month across the planning range.	Reducing utilities per round as if the bill disappears at low volume.
Property Insurance	Fixed	Carry as $8,000 per month before calculating contribution coverage.	Tying insurance to rounds instead of facility risk coverage.
Grounds Crew	Semi-fixed	Increase in staffing steps as FTE rises from 4.0 to 6.0.	Modeling crew payroll as a smooth percent of revenue.
Hospitality Staff	Semi-fixed	Increase in staffing steps as FTE rises from 3.0 to 5.0.	Treating added staff as one-for-one with every new round.

How does break-even change across lean, base, and full scenarios for a golf course?

Scenario table

Break-even improves as revenue scales from Year 1 to Year 5, because fixed wages and overhead are spread over a bigger sales base while variable costs stay near 16% to 18% of revenue. The cushion grows, but weather and event mix still matter.

Planning assumptions only; actual break-even can shift with weather, sales mix, and staffing.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean first-year case	$428.8k	$77.2k	$103.8k	82.0%	$247.7k	Covered, but the cushion is thinner than later years.
Base year-3 case	$582.3k	$100.8k	$111.3k	82.7%	$370.2k	Healthy cushion; sales stay well above break-even.
Full year-5 case	$718.1k	$117.5k	$118.8k	83.7%	$481.8k	Strong cushion; break-even risk is low if demand holds.

What pressures the golf course break-even plan most?

Stress test

The base case clears break-even by about $302k a month. The cushion shrinks fast if rounds, memberships, or events soften, while turf care, payroll, and repairs push costs higher.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$126,626	$302,124 cushion	Base case has a wide monthly cushion.
Revenue shortfall	Rounds, memberships, and events fall 10%; extra income stays flat.	$126,626	$260,457 cushion	Weather-driven round loss and weak event bookings hit first.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed overhead rises 10% from payroll creep, cart repairs, and utility pressure.	$139,287	$289,463 cushion	Higher overhead eats cash even if sales hold.
Margin pressure	Variable spend rises to 21% as turf care and booking costs climb.	$131,434	$297,316 cushion	Turf water spikes and fees squeeze contribution.
Combined pressure	Rounds, memberships, and events fall 10%, fixed overhead rises 10%, and variable spend rises to 21%.	$144,578	$242,505 cushion	A wet season plus higher payroll cuts the cushion fast.

What should the founder verify before committing to the golf course build?

Founder checklist

Verify the first-year rounds, memberships, and event mix before you lock in major capex. If the traffic, staffing, and cash path do not line up with break-even, the build is too early.

1Year 1 demand$5.1M

Verify 30,000 rounds, 300 memberships, and 50 events can really land in the first operating year, because that is the demand base behind the break-even case.

2Monthly load$103.8K/mo

Check that $43,000 of monthly overhead plus $730,000 of annual wages fits the tee-sheet plan, or fixed cost will outrun traffic.

3Contribution82% CM

Confirm the model keeps about 82% contribution after 18% variable costs, because turf care, marketing, food, and pro shop spend all press on the spread.

4Staffing ramp14.0 FTE

Make sure year-one staffing works at 14.0 FTE and can scale to 16.5 FTE by Year 5 without hurting rounds, lessons, or clubhouse service.

5Cash floor$39K

Watch the $39,000 minimum cash point in Month 6, since capex starts before the operating base is fully live and cash still has to stay above the floor.

6Capex load$2.2M

Confirm the $2.2 million capex plan for irrigation, clubhouse, carts, equipment, fixtures, kitchen, IT, and parking is covered before signing, so the course opens ready.