Greenhouse Break-Even Analysis: $475K Monthly Sales Target

Fixed costs $53.3K/mo Payroll plus overhead

Contribution margin 83% After variable load

Break-even revenue $64.2K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 12 Model break point

Break-even calculator

Use this to test whether monthly crop sales can cover direct costs and the fixed cost base.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the pool that covers direct costs and fixed overhead. $ Lower sales Higher sales Variable expenses These are crop, energy, and selling costs that rise with sales. $ Lower direct cost Higher direct cost

Money available to cover fixed costs $83,760 $99,242 revenue - $15,482 variable expenses

Margin ratio

84%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base break-even must cover. $ Lower overhead Higher overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which greenhouse expenses are fixed and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Cost classification decides whether the Month 12 break-even target is reliable. Fixed payroll, base facility costs, and leased land can stay due even when harvest revenue comes in late.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
CEO/Founder salary	Fixed	Include the full recurring salary in monthly overhead before testing break-even revenue.	Counting owner pay only after profit, which understates the true break-even bar.
Greenhouse Manager/Agronomist salary	Fixed	Treat the first-year 1.0 FTE role as committed overhead needed to run production.	Assuming technical labor can flex down with weak sales; the crop still needs management.
Property taxes and base facility maintenance	Fixed	Include the $2,500 monthly amount as base overhead in every break-even month.	Spreading it across crop units only, which hides the cash bill due each month.
Seeds, nutrients and substrates	Variable	Model as 6.0% of first-year sales, falling to 4.8% by the fifth year.	Treating inputs as fixed inventory spend instead of tying them to planned harvest revenue.
Packaging and delivery materials	Variable	Model as 3.0% of first-year sales, falling to 2.6% by the fifth year.	Forgetting that each sold unit needs boxes, labels, and delivery materials.
Sales and marketing commissions/fees	Variable	Apply the 2.0% first-year rate directly to sales in the break-even model.	Booking commissions as fixed marketing spend, which weakens gross margin visibility.
Energy for lighting and climate control	Semi-variable	Use the 6.0% first-year rate, but keep a base load for lighting and climate control.	Treating heating and power as fully flexible when weather and crop cycles can move usage first.
Leased cultivated land	Semi-fixed	Year 1 lease is about $720 per month: 0.5 hectares × 80% leased × $1,800.	Using one flat rent figure even as cultivated area expands in steps.

How does break-even change as the greenhouse moves from lean to base to full scale?

Scenario table

Lean and base plans sit well below break-even, so losses stay heavy. The fuller plan gets revenue above the break-even line, but the cushion is still tight if heating, labor, and occupancy grow faster than sales.

Planning figures only; actual crop mix, yields, and staffing can move these numbers fast.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean greenhouse plan	$134K	$228K	$394K	-70%	-$488K	Revenue is $341K short of break-even.
Base greenhouse plan	$492K	$699K	$507K	-42%	-$714K	Still $99K short, so cost control matters.
Full greenhouse plan	$712K	$933K	$564K	-31%	-$785K	Revenue clears break-even, but the cushion is thin.

What breaks the greenhouse break-even plan when sales miss or costs jump?

Stress test

Here’s the quick math: first-year fixed costs are about $394K a month, and the base contribution margin is 83.0%, so break-even lands near $475K. Sales misses, winter energy spikes, and faster hiring push that point up fast.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$475K	$341K gap	Base sales still sit well below break-even.
Revenue shortfall	First-year average revenue falls 10% to about $120K.	$475K	$355K gap	A small miss widens the monthly gap fast.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise 10% to about $433K a month.	$522K	$388K gap	More overhead means the plant needs more cash each month.
Margin pressure	Variable expense load rises from 17.0% to 20.0%.	$492K	$358K gap	Energy and shrink pressure lift break-even even if sales hold.
Combined pressure	Fixed costs rise 10% and variable load reaches 20.0%.	$542K	$408K gap	This is the tightest case; sales must outrun both cost lines.

What should you verify before you sign the lease and buy greenhouse equipment?

Founder checklist

Run the site, crop, labor, and buyer checks before you commit. Year 1 forecast sales average about $134K per month, but first-year break-even is $475K per month, so the gap is too wide to cover without proof.

1Demand Proof$475K/mo

Verify buyer demand can reach break-even, because Year 1 forecast sales average only about $134K per month.

2Site Load0.5 ha, 80% leased

Confirm the site can support 0.5 hectares and the leased-land mix before you sign, since the first year depends on that footprint.

3Fixed Load$53.3K/mo

Make sure base facility costs and Year 1 payroll stay in line with the model, or the break-even gap will widen fast.

4Crop Mix30/20/25/15/10

Check that lettuce, basil, cherry tomatoes, bell peppers, and cut flowers follow the planned split, because the revenue plan assumes that mix.

5Harvest Timing1-2 mo cycles

Pressure-test harvest timing across short and long crop cycles, since revenue is seasonal and gaps can hit cash early.

6Cash Cushion-$1.272M

Keep enough reserve to survive the cash trough around Month 29, because the model still bottoms before it turns durable.