Greenhouse Farming Break-Even Analysis: $526K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $45.7K/mo Overhead plus payroll

Contribution margin 82% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $55.7K/mo Monthly sales target

Break-even timing Month 3 Launch ramp point

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test monthly revenue against variable expenses and fixed monthly costs to see where greenhouse farming breaks even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets how much margin is available to cover fixed costs. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These are the direct costs that rise with production and sales. $ Lean costs Higher costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $45,920 $56,000 revenue - $10,080 variable expenses

Margin ratio

82%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base that contribution margin has to cover. $ Lower base Higher base

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which greenhouse farming expenses are fixed and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even is only useful if fixed overhead stays separate from crop-driven spend. In this model, monthly overhead, payroll steps, and sales-linked inputs behave differently, so mixing them can make Month 3 break-even look stronger than it is.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Greenhouse Facility Lease/Rent	Fixed	Include $15,000 per month in overhead.	Tying rent to crop volume.
Insurance (Property & Liability)	Fixed	Include $1,500 per month in fixed overhead.	Spreading insurance into crop COGS.
Administrative Software Subscriptions	Fixed	Include $500 per month from Month 1.	Ignoring small recurring tools.
Growing Media, Seeds & Nutrients	Variable	Model at 5.0% of first-year sales.	Classifying crop inputs as overhead.
Sustainable Packaging Materials	Variable	Model at 3.0% of first-year sales.	Forgetting pack-out materials.
Energy (Lighting & Climate Control)	Semi-variable	Use 6.0% of first-year sales, then stress usage.	Assuming smooth power use every month.
Logistics (Vehicle Maint, Fuel, Delivery Personnel)	Semi-variable	Use 4.0% of first-year sales for delivery activity.	Treating delivery as free.
Farm Manager and Horticulture Technicians	Semi-fixed	Include payroll by FTE as growing area scales.	Waiting until cash is tight to model hiring.

How does break-even change from a lean greenhouse start to base and full scale?

Scenario table

Scale pushes break-even revenue up from about $526k in the lean case to about $706k in the full case, but fixed-cost coverage improves faster, so the cushion widens.

Planning assumptions only; yields, prices, and cost shares can move.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean greenhouse case, Year 1, 1 hectare, 20% owned land	$791k	$142k	$432k	82.0%	$217k	Positive, but this has the thinnest cushion.
Base greenhouse case, Year 3, 2 hectares, 25% owned land	$1,739k	$285k	$485k	83.6%	$969k	Fixed costs are covered with a much wider buffer.
Full greenhouse case, Year 5, 3 hectares, 30% owned land	$2,806k	$416k	$601k	85.2%	$1,789k	This has the strongest cushion and the lowest stress.

What breaks the break-even plan for a greenhouse farm?

Stress test

With 82% contribution margin, the current $432k fixed overhead breaks even at about $526k of monthly sales. The plan has about a $265k cushion versus the $791k Year 1 target, but energy or labor creep can shrink it fast.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$526k	$265k cushion	Healthy on paper, but sales cannot slip much.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly sales fall to the $526k break-even line.	$526k	$0 cushion	Any further drop turns break-even into a loss.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed overhead rises by $1k per month.	$527k	$264k cushion	Each extra $1k needs about $1.2k more revenue.
Margin pressure	Energy rises from 6.0% to 8.0% of sales.	$540k	$251k cushion	Higher heating or cooling pushes break-even up fast.
Combined pressure	Sales fall to $526k, fixed overhead adds $1k, and energy rises to 8.0%.	$541k	$15k gap	A small miss on sales and cost creep flips profit to loss.

What should a greenhouse founder verify before signing the lease and buying the systems?

Founder checklist

Break-even is plausible by Month 3, but only if the lease, crop mix, staffing, and sales pace match the model. The real test is whether the site can carry the first-year fixed load without cash falling too far before volume builds.

1Demand Proof35/25/20/15/5

Verify buyer demand for the full crop mix before you lock the site, because the 35% leafy greens and 25% microgreens need to move from day one.

2Site Cost$16.2K/mo

Confirm the Year 1 site load is about $15k rent plus $1.2k leased land, or the fixed base gets too heavy before harvest revenue starts.

3Margin Load82% CM

Check that pricing still leaves about 82% contribution after 5% seeds and nutrients, 3% packaging, 6% energy, and 4% logistics.

4Payroll Ramp$25K/mo

Keep hiring tied to the Year 1 payroll run rate of about $25k a month, since the model already carries 5.0 FTE before sales support starts in the second operating year.

5Cash Cushion$2.33M

Hold at least $2.33M of cash headroom, because minimum cash drops to -$2.333M in Month 25 even with break-even by Month 3.

6Launch Demand$526K/mo

Do not add capacity until monthly revenue clears $526k, because the model says to delay expansion if demand stays below that line.