Peanut Oil Break-Even Analysis: ~$39K Monthly Revenue Target

Fixed costs $32.1K/mo Year 1 base

Contribution margin 83% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $38.8K/mo Revenue target

Break-even timing Month 15 First break-even

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue, variable costs, and fixed overhead against break-even for a peanut oil operation.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the cash available to cover fixed overhead. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These are direct costs that rise with each sale. $ Light costs Heavy costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $47,465 $55,333 revenue - $7,868 variable expenses

Margin ratio

86%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base break-even must cover. $ Lean overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses are fixed, and which move with sales for a peanut oil producer?

Cost classification

Break-even only works if each expense behaves the way the model says it does. For this oil business, unit-level materials and packaging drive margin, while rent and payroll set the monthly sales floor.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Raw Materials Peanuts	Variable	Use per-unit inputs by product: $0.80 finishing, $1.20 all-purpose, and $4.00 bulk gallon.	Using one peanut input across all pack sizes.
Direct Processing Labor	Variable	Apply $0.20 to $1.00 per unit based on product format and processing load.	Burying direct labor inside payroll.
Bottle & Label or Bulk Jug & Label	Variable	Model packaging at $0.40 to $1.50 per unit, tied to bottle, infused, or bulk mix.	Ignoring packaging mix as sales shift.
Shipping Materials, Fulfillment Fee, and Freight Cost	Variable	Use $0.15 to $2.00 per unit, with higher handling for bulk gallons.	Averaging bottle and gallon fulfillment blindly.
Quality Control	Semi-variable	Include 0.5% of revenue as testing burden tied to production and sales volume.	Skipping testing burden in break-even math.
Production Utilities	Semi-variable	Use 0.5% of revenue for production usage, plus $400 monthly general utilities separately.	Double counting utilities across overhead and production.
Facility Rent	Fixed	Carry $4,500 monthly as fixed overhead for the relevant planning range.	Confusing rent with the 0.5% facility lease allocation.
Payroll	Semi-fixed	Model staffing in steps; first-year payroll is about $24.9k monthly before later FTE additions.	Hiring ahead of demand and raising break-even too early.

How does break-even change from a lean launch to full peanut oil capacity?

Scenario table

As volume rises from the Year 1 mix to Year 3, the fixed load spreads over more sales and the model flips from a small loss to a wider profit cushion. Break-even moves from fragile to durable.

Planning cases only; actual results will move with mix, price, and volume.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch, Year 1 mix	$34.3k	$5.9k	$32.1k	82.8%	-$3.7k	Still below break-even, so cash burn stays tight.
Base operating plan, Year 2 mix	$55.3k	$9.3k	$36.5k	83.3%	$9.6k	Break-even is already past Month 15, and this mix adds a small cushion.
Fuller-capacity case, Year 3 mix	$81.7k	$13.3k	$39.7k	83.7%	$28.6k	Best fit once equipment use and channel demand are proven.

What pushes this peanut oil plan past break-even?

Stress test

This plan is tight because a 10% sales drop already creates about a $32k monthly gap. If peanut, packaging, freight, or utilities run 10% hotter, break-even climbs into the high $300k range, and the combined hit pushes the gap to about $70k.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$388,000	$0 gap	Plan sits right on break-even.
Revenue shortfall	Sales fall 10% below break-even.	$388,000	$32,000 gap	Lower wholesale reorders cut cash fast.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed overhead rises 10%.	$427,000	$39,000 gap	Rent, payroll, and overhead leave less room.
Margin pressure	Variable expense pressure rises 10%.	$396,000	$8,000 gap	Peanut, packaging, or freight inflation tightens margin.
Combined pressure	Sales fall 10%, variable costs rise, and fixed overhead rises 10%.	$458,000	$70,000 gap	Cost inflation plus slow demand can outrun volume.

Is the peanut oil build ready before you lock the lease and equipment?

Founder checklist

Before you commit, prove the Year 1 sales mix, supplier costs, capacity, and cash needed to reach Month 15 break-even. The model needs about $412K a month in product sales, $32.1K in fixed load, and $771K of cash to survive the ramp.

1Demand Mix$412K/mo

Verify the Year 1 mix can really sell at about $412K a month: 3,000 finishing oil, 8,000 all-purpose oil, 1,500 bulk gallons, and 1,000 infused units.

2Supplier Costs$46K direct

Quote peanuts, bottles, labels, jugs, shipping materials, fulfillment, and freight against the unit plan, and keep quality control documented at the 0.5% line so the production stack stays inside the model.

3Line Capacity13.5K units

Check that the press, bottling line, storage tanks, and delivery setup can handle 13,500 units in Year 1, and keep the launch build near the $355K capex plan across pressing, bottling, tanks, van, website, IT, office, and testing equipment.

4Fixed Load$32.1K/mo

Your overhead and payroll sit near $32.1K a month before variable costs, so delay hiring if demand is still thin and let sales catch up first.

5Cash Runway$771K

Hold at least $771K of cash, because the model's low point hits Month 25 and Year 1 EBITDA is still negative at -$90K.

6Break-evenMonth 15

Treat Month 15 as the break-even gate, and do not scale headcount faster than demand if onboarding or production learning slips.