Shooting Range Break-Even Analysis: $688K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $54.0K/mo Base overhead

Contribution margin 78.5% After variable spend

Break-even revenue $68.8K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 2 Model payback point

Break-even calculator

Test how monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs affect break-even for a shooting range.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue More revenue gives you more room to cover fixed costs. $ Lower sales Higher sales Variable expenses Use direct costs that rise with sales, like ammo, targets, and variable promos. $ Lower direct cost Higher direct cost

Money available to cover fixed costs $145,867 $180,083 revenue - $34,216 variable expenses

Margin ratio

81%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs Use the monthly cost base the margin has to cover. $ Lower overhead Higher overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which shooting range expenses stay fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even is only useful if true overhead stays separate from spend that rises with visits. For this shooting range, the key split is rent and insurance versus ammo, inventory, cleaning, and staff hours tied to lane use.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Facility Lease/Mortgage	Fixed	Include $18,000/month as overhead from Month 1 through Month 60 before calculating required contribution.	Spreading rent across visits and making break-even look easier when traffic is low.
High-Liability Insurance	Fixed	Include $3,000/month as a fixed operating charge in the monthly break-even target.	Modeling insurance as a sales percentage instead of a recurring coverage bill.
Utilities (Electricity, Water, Gas)	Semi-variable	Start with the $4,500/month base amount, then stress-test higher usage as lanes, ventilation, and training hours rise.	Treating the full utility bill as fixed even when operating hours and range use grow.
Range Safety Officer (RSO) Staffing	Semi-variable	Model staffing against utilization, with FTE rising from 2.0 in the first year to 5.0 in the mature year.	Treating all payroll as fixed when safety coverage must rise with lane traffic.
Ammunition & Targets	Variable	Apply as a direct revenue-linked charge, starting at 10.0% in the first year and falling to 8.0% by the mature year.	Hardcoding a flat monthly amount and missing higher supply use on busy days.
Firearms & Accessories Inventory	Variable	Apply as a sales-linked charge, starting at 5.0% in the first year and declining to 4.0% by the mature year.	Mixing recurring inventory costs with the one-time opening rental fleet purchase.
Range Consumables & Cleaning	Variable	Apply as a usage-linked expense, starting at 2.5% in the first year and moving to 1.5% by the mature year.	Parking cleaning supplies in overhead and understating the cost of added sessions.

How does break-even change as traffic moves from lean to base to full range use?

Scenario table

A shooting range gets to break-even fast once lane rentals, memberships, firearm rentals, training, and retail add-ons keep traffic high. At lean volume, fixed overhead still outruns contribution; at base and full volume, contribution clears it.

Scenario figures are planning assumptions from the model inputs, so actual results can shift with traffic, pricing, staffing, and product mix.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean range utilization	$643K	$138K	$540K	78.5%	-$35K	Contribution falls short, so break-even risk stays high.
Base range utilization	$919K	$197K	$540K	78.5%	$182K	Contribution clears fixed costs, so break-even is covered.
Full range utilization	$1.334M	$273K	$632K	79.6%	$431K	Higher traffic gives a wide cushion above break-even.

What breaks first if sales slip or costs rise at this shooting range?

Stress test

Base break-even sits near $688K a month, so the plan has a thin cushion. If revenue drops to 70% of plan or fixed costs rise, losses show up fast; ammo, targets, payroll, insurance, and utilities are the first pressure points.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$688K/month	$0 cushion	Tiny misses erase profit.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue falls to 70% of Year 1 plan.	$688K/month	$35K gap	Lower lane use cuts the cushion.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed overhead rises 10% to $594K a month.	$757K/month	$69K gap	Payroll, insurance, or utilities can break the model.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise from 21.5% to 26.5% of revenue.	$734K/month	$46K gap	Ammo and target inflation squeeze the cushion.
Combined pressure	Revenue runs at 70% of plan and fixed overhead rises 10%.	$757K/month	$89K gap	That combo pushes the month into a loss.

Can this shooting range carry its fixed load before you sign the lease and lock in buildout?

Founder checklist

Don’t sign the lease until the site, buildout, and cash reserve all work together. Month 2 break-even looks fast on paper, but the model still needs about $2.078M of cash to survive the Month 8 trough.

1Site load$29.4K/mo

Verify the facility can handle the Year 1 lane, rental, and training plan while carrying $29.4K a month in lease, insurance, utilities, security, software, fees, and waste costs.

2Buildout budget$2.25M

Confirm you can fund the $1.5M buildout and $750K ventilation and lead abatement system before you commit, because those two items drive the first big cash hit.

3Margin mix78.5% CM

Here’s the quick math: Year 1 revenue is about $1.103M, and COGS plus variable costs take 21.5%, so the business keeps roughly 78.5% to cover fixed overhead.

4Staffing ramp6.0 FTE

Verify you can open with 1 general manager, 2 range safety officers, 1 certified instructor, 1 retail associate, and 1 maintenance worker, since safe coverage cannot slip at launch.

5Cash reserve$2.078M

Hold enough cash to cover the minimum trough through Month 8, because Month 2 break-even does not pay for the buildout, equipment, and working capital gap.

6Launch volume15,000 lanes

Confirm your launch demand plan can reach Year 1 volume of 15,000 lane rentals, 10,000 firearm rentals, 500 memberships, and 800 training courses.