Supplement Break-Even Analysis: $37K Monthly Revenue Target

Fixed costs $30.4K/mo Year 1 burn

Contribution margin 82% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $37.1K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 16 First profit month

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against break-even for a supplement business.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the cash pool that pays both variable and fixed costs each month. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These are direct costs that move with sales, like manufacturing, shipping, and card fees. $ Low costs High costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $70,140 $84,200 revenue - $14,060 variable expenses

Margin ratio

83%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead the business must cover before profit starts. $ Lean overhead Heavier overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses are fixed and which move with sales for a supplement business?

Cost classification

Break-even gets unreliable when fixed overhead and sales-linked expenses are blended. Separate stable monthly bills from items like 6.0% manufacturing, 8.0% fulfillment, and $40 CAC-driven marketing before trusting Month 16 break-even.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Raw Materials & Manufacturing	Variable	Use 6.0% of revenue in the first year.	Counting gross sales before product input expense.
Third-Party Lab Testing	Variable	Use 2.0% of revenue in the first year.	Treating recurring testing as a one-time launch item.
Fulfillment & Shipping	Semi-variable	Use 8.0% of revenue in the first year and monitor order volume.	Treating fulfillment as fixed monthly overhead.
E-commerce Transaction Fees	Variable	Use 2.0% of revenue in the first year.	Mixing transaction fees with payment gateway base fees.
E-commerce Platform Subscription	Fixed	Include $500 per month in fixed overhead.	Scaling the subscription with every added order.
Legal & Accounting Services Retainer	Fixed	Include $1,000 per month in fixed overhead.	Hiding the retainer inside variable compliance spend.
Payroll	Semi-fixed	Use about $15.2K per month in the first year, then step up with staffing.	Scaling salaries directly with each sale.
Marketing Budget	Semi-variable	Use $150,000 in the first year tied to $40 CAC.	Treating ads as pure overhead instead of acquisition spend.

How does break-even change across lean, base, and full supplement launch plans?

Scenario table

Paid acquisition drives the break-even gap here: lower CAC and stronger repeat orders push revenue faster than fixed payroll and platform costs rise. If wholesale discounting is added, AOV can slip and the cushion shrinks.

Planning assumptions only; real results will move with CAC, repeat buying, and any wholesale discounting.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch case	$264K	$48K	$304K	82%	-$88K	Still below break-even, so CAC efficiency matters most.
Base launch case	$1.06M	$177K	$515K	83%	$369K	Clears fixed costs with a workable cushion.
Full rollout case	$3.61M	$552K	$760K	85%	$2.30M	Well past break-even, but wholesale discounting would thin the margin.

What breaks the break-even plan for a supplement brand?

Stress test

Year 2 has a healthy cushion, but sales drops, higher freight, or added payroll can close it fast. Watch CAC above $35, freight above 75%, repeat buyers below 35%, and any fixed hire before Month 16.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change from the Year 2 base case.	$618K	$443K cushion	Healthy buffer, but payroll timing still matters.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue drops 20% to $849K.	$618K	$231K cushion	A sales dip still clears break-even, but the buffer shrinks fast.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise by $10K per month.	$630K	$431K cushion	One extra hire or overhead step cuts profit dollar for dollar.
Margin pressure	Contribution margin falls 5 points to 78.3%.	$658K	$403K cushion	Higher freight or lower efficiency pushes break-even up fast.
Combined pressure	Revenue drops 20%, margin falls to 78.3%, and fixed costs rise $10K.	$671K	$178K cushion	This is the tightest case, so any extra CAC or freight creep matters.

Can you verify this supplements launch still clears break-even before you lock in inventory, ads, and hiring?

Founder checklist

Before you lock in inventory, ad spend, and hiring, verify the model still works with Year 1 costs that rise with each sale. If the 82% contribution margin, $40 CAC, and $715K cash need slip, break-even at Month 16 gets much harder to hold.

1Contribution Margin82% CM

Verify raw materials, lab testing, shipping, and fees stay at 18% of sales so each order leaves enough gross profit to cover ads and payroll.

2Runway Load$17.9K/mo

Verify your recurring fixed load stays near the model and do not pull in the Month 13 supply chain role or Month 25 content hire early.

3Supplier Quotes6%

Verify raw materials and manufacturing quotes hold near 6% of Year 1 revenue before you buy inventory, because that sets your base product cost.

4Lab Testing2%

Verify third-party lab testing stays at 2% of revenue and is scheduled before launch spend, because compliance has to be built into the model.

5CAC Proof$40 CAC

Verify paid acquisition can stay near $40 in Year 1 against the $150,000 marketing budget, because new demand has to arrive without crushing payback.

6Cash Cushion$715K

Verify you can fund the $715K minimum cash need through Month 16, since breakeven lands in Month 16 and payback takes 26 months.