Holistic Wellness Shop Break-Even Analysis: Month 18 Target

Fixed costs $17.5K/mo Base monthly load

Contribution margin 82% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $21.4K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 18 Model break point

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed monthly costs against break-even for this shop.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the cash that helps cover fixed costs after direct costs. $ Slower sales Busy sales Variable expenses These rise with sales, like inventory, freight, promotions, and card fees. $ Light costs Heavy costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $18,326 $22,349 revenue - $4,023 variable expenses

Margin ratio

82%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base that break-even has to cover. $ Lean overhead Higher overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses stay fixed, and which move with sales for this wellness retail store?

Cost classification

Break-even only works if fixed overhead and sales-linked expenses are kept separate. In the first year, rent and core payroll set the monthly floor, while inventory, freight, promotions, and card fees move with revenue.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Commercial lease rent	Fixed	Use $3,500 per month as baseline overhead.	Treating rent as sales-linked.
Store manager payroll	Fixed	Use $5,000 per month from the $60,000 annual salary.	Excluding required management coverage.
Retail associate payroll	Semi-fixed	Model payroll in staffing steps as full-time equivalent staffing rises.	Hiring ahead of traffic growth.
Owner operator salary	Fixed	Use $3,750 per month from the $45,000 annual salary.	Confusing salary with owner draw.
Cost of products inventory	Variable	Use 11.0% of sales in the first year.	Using purchase cash instead of sold inventory.
Inbound freight and handling	Variable	Use 1.5% of sales in the first year.	Burying freight in fixed overhead.
Marketing and promotions	Variable	Use 4.5% of sales in the first year.	Ignoring launch-period promotion spend.
Payment processing fees	Variable	Use 1.0% of sales in the first year.	Leaving card fees out of margin.

How does break-even shift from a lean opening store to a fuller storefront?

Scenario table

Fixed payroll drives the break-even line here. The lean, base, and full formats keep variable costs near 16% to 18% of sales, but each staffing step-up pushes the monthly revenue needed to cover overhead.

Planning assumptions only; actual traffic, mix, and payroll can move break-even.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean opening store	$21.4k	$3.9k	$17.5k	82%	$0	Thin cushion; a small traffic miss pushes it below break-even.
Base neighborhood store	$22.5k	$3.8k	$18.7k	83%	$0	Modest cushion; steady weekday traffic has to hold.
Full expanded-hours store	$24.6k	$4.0k	$20.7k	83.9%	$0	Higher traffic must cover the added payroll.

What pushes this wellness shop past break-even?

Stress test

Here’s the quick math: with $17,530 in fixed monthly costs and an 82% contribution margin, break-even is about $21,400 a month. The plan gets stressed fast if traffic slips, labor grows early, or margin falls even one point.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$21,400	$0 gap	Little cushion; small misses hurt.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly sales run $1,000 below plan.	$21,400	$1,000 gap	Every $1,000 miss cuts contribution by about $820.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed costs rise by $1,000 from rent or payroll.	$22,600	$1,220 gap	New overhead needs more traffic right away.
Margin pressure	Contribution margin slips from 82% to 81%.	$21,642	$264 gap	A 1-point margin drop lifts the break-even line.
Combined pressure	Sales miss plan by $1,000 and fixed costs rise by $1,000.	$22,600	$1,820 gap	Two small misses stack into a real monthly squeeze.

What must you verify before locking this wellness shop’s lease and first inventory order?

Founder checklist

Don’t sign the lease or place the first order until the cost stack, traffic, and launch cash line up with break-even. The model reaches break-even in Month 18, but cash still bottoms in Month 21, so runway has to come first.

1Lease Load$17.53K/mo

Verify that Year 1 fixed overhead stays near this level, because rent and store costs set the monthly floor you must clear.

2Payroll Stack3.5 staff

Model the manager, full-time associate, part-time associate, and owner operator before hiring, because labor drives the biggest fixed drag.

3Inventory Plan$25K

Match opening stock to the first inventory buy and keep the mix near 35% vitamins and supplements, 30% natural skincare, 20% essential oils, and 15% meditation journals.

4Launch Spend$100K

Check that build-out, fixtures, POS, security, signage, website, and furniture still total $100,000, or launch cash will run hot fast.

5Demand Proof15% / 118 wk

Test whether 15% visitor-to-buyer conversion can turn about 785 weekly visitors into roughly 118 buyers, then confirm the 16-unit basket and weighted price hold up.

6RunwayMonth 21

Protect cash through the Month 21 low point and plan for Month 18 break-even, because Year 1 EBITDA is negative before the model turns positive.