Homemade Beef Jerky Break-Even: About $19K Revenue Per Month

Fixed costs $15.2K/mo Core monthly overhead

Contribution margin 80% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $19.0K/mo Monthly revenue hurdle

Break-even timing Month 1 Launch break-even

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test how monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs change break-even for small-batch beef jerky.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Use the monthly sales number; more revenue gives more margin to cover fixed costs. $ Lower sales Higher sales Variable expenses Include beef, seasoning, packaging, and labor that rise with each sale. $ Lower costs Higher costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $18,063 $22,583 revenue - $4,520 variable expenses

Margin ratio

80%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs Include rent, base pay, insurance, and other costs that stay flat each month. $ Lower overhead Higher overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which jerky expenses are fixed, and which move with each bag sold?

Cost classification

Break-even is only useful if each expense behaves the right way in the model. Put beef, packaging, and direct labor against each bag, but keep rent and recurring overhead in the monthly fixed base.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Premium beef	Variable	Use $0.85 to $0.95 per bag, depending on recipe.	Averaging meat too low and overstating margin.
Marinades, spices, curing salts, and flavor inputs	Variable	Use $0.10 to $0.45 per bag based on flavor mix.	Using one ingredient rate for every flavor.
Pouch and label	Variable	Use $0.25 to $0.30 per bag sold.	Leaving packaging out of unit margin.
Direct production labor	Variable	Use $0.30 to $0.35 per bag for hands-on production work.	Treating founder labor as free labor.
Commercial kitchen rental	Fixed	Carry $3,500 per month unless the lease is usage-based.	Spreading rent per bag before checking volume.
Insurance, website fees, accounting, permits, software, and bank fees	Fixed	Carry $1,750 per month in recurring overhead.	Dropping small monthly fees from break-even.
Production utilities, quality control, sanitation, depreciation, and indirect labor	Semi-variable	Model these at 1.6% of revenue in total.	Counting usage-linked production overhead as fixed only.

How does break-even shift from lean batches to full jerky production?

Scenario table

Break-even gets easier as volume and price mix rise, but fixed costs climb too. The lean case has the thinnest cushion, the base case is steadier, and the full case only works if demand supports the extra staffing.

Planning assumptions only; startup spend is excluded from break-even revenue.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean small-batch validation	$22,583	$4,520	$15,208	80.0%	$2,855	About $19.0k monthly break-even leaves a small cushion.
Base repeat local and online sales	$34,917	$6,942	$22,958	80.1%	$5,016	About $28.7k monthly break-even fits a steadier sales run.
Full staffed fulfillment	$92,417	$15,570	$29,625	83.1%	$47,221	About $35.6k monthly break-even needs high demand to hold.

What pushes this beef jerky plan below break-even?

Stress test

Here’s the quick math: base revenue is about $22,583 against roughly $19,014 break-even, so there’s about a $3,569 cushion. The plan gets tight if beef, packaging, or kitchen rent move the wrong way.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$19,014	$3,569 cushion	The base plan stays above break-even.
Revenue shortfall	Sales fall 10% to $20,325.	$19,014	$1,311 cushion	A smaller top line still covers fixed costs, but the buffer shrinks.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise 10% to $16,729.	$20,915	$1,668 cushion	Kitchen rent and overhead hikes eat most of the cushion.
Margin pressure	Variable costs rise 15% to $5,198.	$19,755	$2,828 cushion	Beef and packaging inflation push the break-even line higher.
Combined pressure	Sales fall 10%, variable costs rise 15%, and fixed costs rise 10%.	$22,480	$2,155 gap	This mix pushes the month below break-even.

Can you prove the jerky business clears break-even before you sign the kitchen lease?

Founder checklist

Don’t lock in the kitchen, inventory, or hires until you can show the model clears about $15.2K a month in fixed costs and sells enough bags to hit break-even. The real test is demand, unit margin, batch control, and kitchen throughput, not just a good first run.

1Launch demand28K → 43K

Confirm repeat orders can carry the plan from 28,000 bags in year 1 to 43,000 in year 2 before you lock in fixed costs.

2Fixed costs$15.2K/mo

Make sure monthly sales can cover about $15.2K in fixed cost load before the lease and core salaries start.

3Margin check81.6% CM

Verify blended contribution stays near 81.6% after beef, labor, and packaging, or the break-even bag count moves up fast.

4Batch control$5.0K

Document batch consistency, shelf-life testing, sanitation, and labeling before you buy the $5.0K packaging lot, because quality misses hurt repeat sales.

5Kitchen output2,333 bags/mo

Check the commercial kitchen and team can run about 2,333 bags a month in year 1 before you add the next hires.

6Cash buffer$1.2M

Keep operating cash separate from the $37.1K one-time equipment and setup spend, because the model's minimum cash point is $1.2M in Month 1.