Horticulture Break-Even Analysis: $57K Monthly Revenue Target

Fixed costs $46.4K/mo Year 1 base

Contribution margin 76% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $61.0K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 4 Model break-even

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against break-even for a horticulture operation.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the gross pool that covers direct costs and overhead. $ Low sales Peak sales Variable expenses Use direct costs that rise with crop sales, like inputs, logistics, and packaging. $ Low direct High direct

Money available to cover fixed costs $96,283 $117,767 revenue - $21,484 variable expenses

Margin ratio

82%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base contribution margin has to cover. $ Lean overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which horticulture expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even is only useful if fixed overhead stays out of gross margin and revenue-linked costs stay tied to sales. In this model, Month 4 break-even depends on separating $960 leased land and $32,917 core payroll from percentage-based crop costs.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Facility Maintenance & Repairs	Fixed	Hold at $5,000 per month within the current facility plan.	Scaling maintenance with sales instead of facility needs.
Insurance (Property & Liability)	Fixed	Hold at $2,500 per month for operating break-even.	Moving insurance into unit margin and overstating contribution.
Core Payroll	Fixed	Use $32,917 per month until staffing levels change.	Hiding salaried roles inside crop-level margin.
Leased Land	Fixed	Use $960 per month in the first year: 80% leased share × 1 hectare × $1,200.	Leaving land lease out because some land is owned.
Agricultural Inputs (Seeds, Nutrients, Growing Media)	Variable	Apply 6.0% of first-year sales as direct crop input expense.	Putting plant material in overhead and overstating gross margin.
Energy & Climate Control	Variable	Apply 7.0% of first-year sales, then test sensitivity by crop mix and climate load.	Ignoring heating and cooling swings during production peaks.
Yield Loss	Variable	Reduce sellable yield by 5.0% in the first year before calculating revenue.	Treating spoilage as fixed instead of a yield drag.
Operations Technicians	Semi-fixed	Add payroll in staffing steps as headcount rises from 2.0 FTE to higher planned levels.	Missing payroll step-ups when cultivated area expands.

How does break-even shift from a lean hectare test to base and full horticulture scale?

Scenario table

Here’s the quick math: revenue rises from $22.4k to $89.4k, while variable cost share drops from 19.0% to 15.5%. That lifts margin from 81.0% to 84.5% and turns profit positive only at full scale.

Planning assumptions only; actual results will move with yield loss, crop mix, and land access.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Year 1 lean hectare pilot	$22.4k	$4.3k	$46.4k	81.0%	-$28.2k	Demand test only; revenue is below the $57.3k break-even line.
Year 3 two-hectare base buildout	$51.7k	$8.9k	$52.0k	82.7%	-$9.3k	Still short of the $62.9k break-even line, so discipline matters.
Year 5 three-hectare full scale	$89.4k	$13.9k	$57.7k	84.5%	$17.8k	Clears the $68.3k break-even line and builds a profit cushion.

What breaks the break-even plan for a horticulture business?

Stress test

This plan is fragile because sales, yield, and overhead can all move the wrong way at once. Weather loss, pests, rejected stock, utility spikes, labor inflation, freight increases, and weak wholesale demand can push monthly losses from about $28k to the mid-$30k range.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$57,256	$34,848 gap	Launch is already below break-even.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue is 10% lower at the same 81% margin.	$57,256	$37,089 gap	A small sales miss widens the loss fast.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise 10% to about $51,014 a month.	$62,984	$40,576 gap	Overhead growth adds about $4.6k to the loss.
Margin pressure	Contribution margin drops to 80% at planned revenue.	$57,972	$35,564 gap	A 1-point margin slip costs about $224 a month.
Combined pressure	Revenue is 10% lower, fixed costs are 10% higher, and margin falls to 80%.	$63,768	$43,601 gap	Small misses stack into about a $34,880 monthly loss.

Can this horticulture business clear the $57K monthly break-even before you lease greenhouse space or hire the full crew?

Founder checklist

Do the break-even math before you commit. The model points to a $57K monthly target, so prove demand, crop timing, and delivery flow first; otherwise the first-year cash gap will widen fast.

1Demand proof$57K/mo

Verify wholesale and direct buyers can absorb enough crop volume to clear the monthly break-even target before you add more land or plant more rows.

2Overhead load$61.3K/mo

Confirm the Year 1 fixed load is workable, because $12.5K of site and admin costs plus about $48.8K of payroll starts before sales are steady.

3Margin mix81% CM

Check pricing by crop and channel, since inputs, energy, logistics, and packaging leave an estimated 81% contribution margin, meaning sales left after variable costs, before fixed costs.

4Harvest timingMonth 1-3

Map the harvest calendar now, because spinach and basil can start in Month 1, while cherry tomatoes and cucumbers do not start until Month 3.

5Cold chain6.0% var.

Secure cold storage and transport before the first harvest, since logistics and packaging total 6.0% of sales in Year 1 and delays hit fresh product fast.

6Cash cushion($3.574M)

Hold cash for the $34,847 monthly first-year revenue gap and the Month 15 low point, and test wholesale and direct sales before buying more equipment or expanding labor.