Hotel Restaurant Break-Even Analysis: $185K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $14.5K Monthly base burn

Contribution margin 81% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $18.0K Monthly sales target

Break-even timing Month 3 Launch month

Break-even calculator

Test whether monthly revenue covers variable expenses and fixed monthly costs.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the cash inflow that has to cover direct costs and overhead. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses Food, packaging, and payment fees rise as sales rise. $ Low costs High costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $73,389 $88,747 revenue - $15,358 variable expenses

Margin ratio

83%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base profit has to cover. $ Light overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses are fixed, variable, or semi-fixed for this restaurant’s break-even model?

Cost classification

Break-even is only as good as the cost split. Treat $5,000 monthly owner pay or $1,500 rent as variable, and the model will understate the revenue needed before the first cover is sold.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Commissary Kitchen Rent	Fixed	Include $1,500 per month in base overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Spreading rent per cover and making slow days look cheaper than they are.
Truck Insurance	Fixed	Include $300 per month before calculating contribution margin.	Treating insurance like it rises with each sale or event.
Food & Beverage Ingredients	Variable	Apply 12.0% of first-year sales as a direct volume-linked expense.	Using a flat monthly food budget instead of tying ingredients to sales.
Packaging & Paper Goods	Variable	Apply 3.0% of first-year sales because packaging moves with orders.	Buried in fixed supplies, which overstates margin at higher volume.
POS System Fees	Variable	Apply 1.5% of first-year sales for transaction-linked processing fees.	Double counting it with the $80 monthly POS subscription.
Event Participation Fees	Variable	Apply 3.0% of first-year sales when event-driven revenue is included.	Leaving event fees below the line and overstating event profit.
Owner/Operator	Semi-fixed	Include $5,000 per month as covered staffing before the first cover is sold.	Treating payroll as fully variable when launch staffing is already committed.
Food Truck Crew	Semi-fixed	Include $2,500 per month in the first year, then step up as FTEs increase.	Flexing every crew dollar with sales instead of modeling staffing steps.

How does break-even change from a lean setup to a full hotel restaurant operation?

Scenario table

As weekly covers rise and the check size improves, revenue grows faster than the cost base. That widens the break-even cushion, and the signal improves most when volume grows faster than payroll steps.

Planning cases only: these figures are assumptions, not guarantees.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean hotel restaurant case	$413k	$81k	$149k	80.5%	$183k	Tightest cushion; slower covers hit break-even first.
Base hotel restaurant case	$887k	$153k	$176k	82.7%	$558k	Clear cushion, but payroll steps still need to trail volume.
Full hotel restaurant case	$1,375k	$206k	$192k	85.0%	$977k	Strongest cushion; break-even risk is lowest here.

What breaks the break-even plan for a hotel restaurant?

Stress test

The plan clears break-even, but the cushion narrows fast if sales slip or fixed costs rise. Month 2 is still the cash warning point before Month 3 break-even.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change from the base plan.	$175k	$712k cushion	Strong headroom, but Month 2 cash still needs control.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue drops to $413k.	$175k	$238k cushion	Sales still clear break-even, but the slack shrinks fast.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed monthly costs rise to $192k.	$226k	$187k cushion	Higher overhead pushes the sales bar up and trims room for error.
Margin pressure	Contribution margin falls from 85.0% to 80.5%.	$185k	$228k cushion	A smaller margin still clears break-even, but less easily.
Combined pressure	Revenue drops to $413k, fixed costs rise to $192k, and margin falls to 80.5%.	$238k	$175k cushion	This is the tightest case and leaves the least room for error.

Can this hotel restaurant clear break-even before you lock the space and start hiring?

Founder checklist

Use these checks before you sign the space, add staff, or buy inventory. If the cover count, fixed load, and signed demand do not support Month 3 break-even, slow the spend.

1Demand proof2,968 covers/mo

Verify the hotel and local walk-in traffic can reach about 2,968 covers a month, because that is the load implied by the day-by-day forecast.

2Fixed load$14.9K/mo

Verify you can carry about $11.5K a month in Year 1 wages plus $3.4K in fixed overhead before you commit to space or service contracts.

3Unit margin80.5% CM

Verify supplier quotes keep food, packaging, and POS costs near the model, because 12.0% food, 3.0% packaging, 1.5% POS fees, and the $80 subscription still leave about 80.5% contribution margin.

4Staffing ramp3.2 FTE

Verify the core team can handle peak Friday-to-Sunday volume without overtime spikes, because Year 1 staffing already totals 3.2 full-time equivalents before event support.

5Cash cushion$786K

Verify you can fund the opening dip, because minimum cash falls to $786K in Month 2 before the model reaches break-even in Month 3.

6Signed demand10% mix

Verify catering or group dining is already signed before you count on it, because Year 1 assumes that channel contributes 10.0% of sales and break-even gets fragile if it stays speculative.