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House Flipping Break-Even Analysis: Month 15 Sale Target


You’re tying up cash before resale, so the model must cover purchase basis, rehab, holding overhead, payroll, and exit fees This house flipping break-even analysis uses a five-year model, with the first project break-even shown in Month 15 and base fixed overhead starting at $15,100/month before payroll It excludes tax forecasting, lender approval, and any guarantee that resale comps will hold


Fixed costs $15.1K-$16.6K/mo Base overhead
Contribution margin 92% After variable fees
Break-even revenue $16.4K-$18.0K/mo Revenue target
Break-even timing Month 15 Payback point

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test monthly sale revenue, variable deal costs, and fixed overhead against break-even.

Money available to cover fixed costs $291,640 $317,000 revenue - $25,360 variable expenses
Margin ratio
92%
Covers fixed costs
Yes
Break-even chart Revenue Total costs
Plan Break-even $0 $0

Which expenses are fixed, variable, or semi-fixed before you buy a property?

Cost classification

Break-even is only reliable if each expense lands in the right bucket. Put purchase price, renovation, and sales-linked fees into project basis; keep monthly overhead separate so Month 15 break-even is not overstated.

Expense Cost Break-Even Treatment Common Mistake
Property purchase price Variable Include owned-property purchase amounts in project basis, from $320,000 to $750,000. Treating acquisition as monthly overhead.
Construction budget Variable Add renovation budgets to minimum resale price, from $85,000 to $250,000 per project. Leaving change orders out of break-even math.
Selling Costs & Commissions Variable Apply to resale proceeds at 6.5% in Year 2 and 6.0% in Year 3. Applying the Year 1 rate to later sales.
Acquisition & Deal Sourcing Fees Variable Apply deal fees at 1.8% in Year 2 and 2.0% in Year 3. Ignoring sourcing fees when setting the bid cap.
Office Rent & Utilities Fixed Carry $7,500/month across the planning period regardless of deal count. Allocating none of the office load to projects.
Legal & Accounting Fixed Carry $3,000/month as baseline overhead from Month 1 through Month 60. Treating recurring closing support as free.
Project payroll Semi-fixed Model staffing in steps, including a $180,000 CEO and $95,000 project manager salary. Hiring before deal volume supports the payroll step-up.
Rental acquisition payments Semi-variable Track rented properties at $3,900 to $5,800/month while held. Undercounting monthly holding drag on rented deals.

How does break-even move from a lean flip to a base case and a full-scope deal?

Scenario table

The lean flip breaks even at a lower exit price, the base case hits the model’s Month 15 cash turn, and the full Oakwood Manor deal needs the biggest sale to clear its cost load.

Planning assumptions only; actual sale prices, holding time, and repair overruns can move break-even.
Scenario Monthly Revenue Variable Costs Fixed Costs CM Ratio Operating Profit Break-Even Signal
Lean City Loft flip $522k $480k $16.6k 8.0% $25.4k City Loft has the tightest cushion, so comp depth matters.
Base Vista Home flip $622k $570k $16.6k 8.4% $35.4k Month 15 is the modeled break-even turn, so delays hurt cash fast.
Full Oakwood Manor flip $1.081m $1.0m $16.6k 7.5% $64.4k Oakwood Manor has more price room, but carry time still drives risk.

What breaks this flip’s break-even plan?

Stress test

The base flip clears break-even only if the resale lands near $621.6k. A lower sale price, a $1,500 monthly overhead step-up after Month 13, or a longer hold can erase that cushion fast.

Stress Case Changed Assumption Break-Even Revenue Revenue Gap Risk Signal
Current plan No change. $621,593 $0 gap That is the thin line before profit.
Price cut Resale price falls 5% below the base case. $621,593 $31,080 gap A modest price cut wipes out the cushion.
Overhead Monthly overhead rises by $1,500 after Month 13. $626,501 $4,909 gap Carry costs push the sale target up fast.
Carry cost A rented hold adds $5,800 per month for three months. $640,566 $18,973 gap Rent can swallow most of the spread.
Combined Sale slips past Month 15, so overhead, rent, and payroll all run longer. $789,968 $168,375 gap Delay, stale comps, or weak buyer traction can keep EBITDA negative.

What should you verify before you commit to the first flip?

Founder checklist

Before you commit, confirm the purchase price, rehab budget, and resale spread still clear break-even after fees and payroll. With $15.1k in fixed overhead before payroll, about $44.2k in Year 2 payroll, and break-even at Month 15, the model only works if the first flip has room for delay.

1Exit demand$622K sale

Before you sign, confirm Vista Home can still clear a roughly $622,000 break-even sale; if the local comp set sits below that, the deal depends on hope, not margin.

2Fixed load$15.1K/mo

Lock the fixed overhead at $15,100 a month before payroll, or $16,600 after property management starts in Month 13, because that cost runs even when a house is between stages.

3Fee drag8.3% fees

Test the spread against 6.5% selling costs and 1.8% sourcing fees in Year 2, since that 8.3% fee drag can wipe out a thin flip fast.

4Build window5-12 mo

Make sure contractors and the project manager can hold the 5-to-12-month construction window across deals, because a slip in one flip stacks labor and carrying cost into the next.

5Payroll ramp$44.2K/mo

Check that deal flow can support about $44,167 a month in Year 2 payroll, or the team gets ahead of closings and break-even moves out.

6Cash cushion$10.615M

Confirm cash can absorb Year 1 EBITDA of -$1.879 million and the longer loss curve, because the model does not turn positive until Year 3 and the minimum cash point lands at Month 60.