Break-Even Analysis For An Immunity Shot Brand: $74k Monthly

Fixed costs $13.4K/mo Core fixed base

Contribution margin 65% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $20.6K/mo Revenue target

Break-even timing Month 2 Cash turns positive

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test whether monthly revenue covers variable expenses and fixed costs for an immunity shot beverage business.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Set the sales you expect to collect each month. $ Lower sales Higher sales Variable expenses Use direct costs that rise with each unit sold and with sales volume. $ Lower costs Higher costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $167,525 $263,250 revenue - $95,725 variable expenses

Margin ratio

64%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs Include monthly overhead that does not move much with sales. $ Lean overhead Higher overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses are fixed, and which move with sales in this shot beverage business?

Cost classification

Break-even is only useful if each expense lands in the right bucket. Put direct unit costs, freight, and revenue-linked fees below gross margin; keep recurring overhead and step-up staffing out of per-shot COGS.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Cold storage warehouse rent	Fixed	Include $6,500 per month in fixed overhead for the current capacity range.	Spreading rent across each shot, then also counting it monthly.
R and D lab fees	Fixed	Include $2,200 per month as recurring overhead from Month 1 to Month 60.	Treating routine lab fees like launch formulation spend.
Insurance and regulatory compliance	Fixed	Include $1,500 per month in fixed overhead, separate from unit-level quality costs.	Loading compliance into COGS without removing the monthly charge.
Direct unit COGS: ingredients, bottle, co-packing, label	Variable	Use $0.75 to $0.97 per shot based on formula; multiply by units sold.	Using one average COGS rate before checking product mix.
Revenue-linked processing, QA, waste, and maintenance fees	Variable	Apply 2.5% of revenue: 1.5% processing, 0.4% QA, 0.3% waste, and 0.3% maintenance.	Calling these fixed vendor fees when they scale with sales.
Digital marketing and acquisition	Variable	Apply the model rate to revenue, starting at 10.0% in the first year.	Adding a fixed ad budget on top of the revenue percentage.
Shipping and fulfillment	Variable	Apply the model rate to revenue, starting at 5.0% in the first year.	Double counting freight in both fulfillment expense and product margin.
Operations and customer support staffing	Semi-fixed	Use salaried FTE steps; first-year payroll is about $34.4k per month before later headcount adds.	Treating all payroll as per-shot labor or monthly owner pay.

How does break-even change from a lean launch to a full-scale shot line?

Scenario table

Higher volume spreads the fixed cost base, so the break-even line moves down as sales scale. Year 1 is tight, Year 3 has room, and Year 5 has the widest cushion, but paid acquisition can still move margin fast.

Planning case only: these figures use model assumptions, so channel mix, promo spend, and fill rates can shift break-even.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch case	$175.5k	$67.6k	$47.8k	61.5%	$60.2k	Tight cushion; small spend swings matter.
Base case	$401.7k	$141.2k	$66.3k	64.8%	$194.2k	Break-even is solid, but paid media still matters.
Full-scale case	$939.8k	$300.2k	$89.2k	68.1%	$550.3k	Strong cushion; margin still depends on acquisition mix.

What breaks the break-even plan if sales slow or costs rise?

Stress test

The launch plan breaks first on slower sell-through, then on fixed-cost creep. At about $175.5k average monthly revenue, the model has about a $101.4k cushion above the $74.1k break-even point, but that margin shrinks fast if freight, sampling, or paid acquisition run hot.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$74.1k	$101.4k cushion	Healthy cushion if sell-through holds.
Revenue shortfall	Average monthly revenue falls 20% to $140.4k.	$74.1k	$66.3k cushion	Slower sell-through cuts cushion by about a third.
Fixed-cost pressure	Monthly fixed costs rise by $10k from payroll, rent, or compliance.	$89.6k	$85.9k cushion	Each extra fixed dollar hits break-even fast.
Margin pressure	Revenue-linked expenses rise 5 points of revenue, cutting contribution margin to 59.5%.	$80.3k	$95.2k cushion	Higher freight, packaging, or paid acquisition trims the cushion.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 20%, fixed costs rise $10k, and revenue-linked expenses rise 5 points.	$97.1k	$43.3k cushion	The plan still works, but the margin safety is much thinner.

Can you prove this shot business breaks even before you lock inventory, cold storage, and hires?

Founder checklist

Before you commit, test the first-year 450,000-shot plan against break-even, cash, and staffing. The model reaches break-even in Month 2, but only if monthly revenue can clear about $74K and fixed overhead plus payroll stay near $47.8K.

1Demand Proof450K shots

Confirm you can sell the full first-year forecast before you order bulk inventory, because the plan assumes 150K, 120K, 80K, 60K, and 40K units across the five shots.

2Fixed Load$47.8K/mo

Make sure cold storage, R and D, compliance, SaaS, admin, and opening payroll fit this monthly load, or the business will miss break-even even if sales start well.

3Unit Margin64.5% CM

Keep product COGS near $0.75 to $0.97 per shot and hold the 3.0% processing, testing, waste, and maintenance layer, so contribution margin stays close to plan.

4Capacity Ramp4.5 FTE

Hold the opening team at 4.5 FTE until sell-through proves the forecast, because staffing rises to 5.5 FTE in year two and should not outrun demand.

5Cash Cushion$1.147M

Protect the month one cash need and stage the $45K formulation, $35K website, $60K cold storage, and $80K inventory spend so you do not run out before breakeven.

6Ad Spend10.0%

Keep paid marketing near the year-one level and do not add more slots or hires until monthly revenue can clear about $74K, because that is the break-even floor.