Not yet, unless pre-sales and opening-month bookings can lift planned first-year monthly revenue from $21K toward the $34.85K fixed load and close the $42K target. Lock the lease, bikes, and hires only after demand, occupancy, and cash all hold in the same model.
1Pre-sold demand$42K/moPre-sell enough memberships to reach the $42K revenue target before you commit to the lease, or break-even depends on hope.
2Fixed load$34.85K/moTest the $10K rent inside the full monthly fixed load, because revenue has to cover payroll, utilities, software, and overhead from day one.
3Variable margin17.0% var.Keep variable costs near 17.0% of revenue, with instructor wages at 8.0%, so each class still throws off enough margin to pay fixed costs.
4Occupancy ramp40%→70%Build a peak-hour schedule first, then add classes as occupancy moves from 40% toward 70%; hiring ahead of demand will lift payroll before revenue.
5Cash floor$882KHold the $882K minimum cash shown in Month 2, since build-out, bikes, and early losses land before the studio reaches steady sales.
6Launch build$218KFund the full $218K pre-opening capex for build-out, bikes, A/V, locker rooms, launch marketing, booking setup, and furniture before day one.