Don’t commit until the site, power, staffing, and launch stack all clear the break-even math. The model can work, but a $15.725M build and a -$12.477M cash trough in Month 9 mean one weak assumption can break the plan fast.
1Site FitCeiling + powerVerify ceiling height, footprint, electric service, parking, traffic flow, and nearby demand before you lock the lease, because the building has to work for the tunnel and the first-year flight forecast.
2Fixed Burn$124.4K/moVerify rent, insurance, routine maintenance, utilities, software, cleaning, security, advisory fees, and Month 1 payroll fit inside cash, because Year 1 burn is about $124.4K a month before variable costs.
3Flight Margin81% CMVerify flight pricing still leaves about 81% contribution after 10% electricity, 1% consumables, 5% marketing, and 3% instructor commissions, because break-even depends on protecting that spread.
4Month 1 Team9.5 FTEVerify the opening team can cover manager, head instructor, sales lead, customer service, instructors, maintenance, and admin, because 9.5 FTE is the baseline that keeps day-one ops moving.
5Cash Trough-$12.5MVerify you have enough reserve for the $15.725M capex plan and the Month 9 cash trough, because minimum cash falls to about -$12.477M before the site stabilizes.
6Launch Demand35.1K totalVerify booking, point-of-sale, security, and photo/video sales systems are live before ramp-up, because Year 1 demand assumes 30,000 individual flights, 5,000 group packages, and 100 private rentals.