International Freight Forwarding Break-Even Analysis: Month 17 Target

Fixed costs $14.7K/mo Core overhead base

Contribution margin 85.5% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $17.2K/mo Monthly revenue target

Break-even timing Month 17 Model break-even point

Break-even calculator

Test how monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs work against monthly break-even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the pool that covers variable costs and then fixed overhead. $ Low volume High volume Variable expenses Use costs that rise with freight volume, like processing, support, and variable sales spend. $ Low costs High costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $151,400 $400,000 revenue - $248,600 variable expenses

Margin ratio

38%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead break-even must cover before profit starts. $ Light overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which freight forwarding expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even only works when monthly overhead stays separate from shipment-level fees. Exclude pass-through duties, taxes, and carrier bills unless retained markup is booked as revenue.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Office Rent ($5,000/month)	Fixed	Include in monthly overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Linking rent to shipment volume.
Legal & Compliance Services ($2,000/month)	Fixed	Keep as fixed overhead needed to operate across all volume levels.	Spreading compliance across each shipment and hiding low-volume losses.
Technology Maintenance & Support ($2,500/month)	Fixed	Treat as base platform overhead, separate from usage-based hosting.	Putting all tech spend into variable expense.
First-year Payroll ($45,000/month)	Semi-fixed	Model as capacity that changes in hiring steps, not per shipment.	Treating salaries like a transaction fee.
Transaction Processing Fees (1.5% in first year)	Variable	Deduct as a percentage of revenue or processed transaction value.	Modeling payment fees as a flat monthly bill.
Cloud Hosting & Infrastructure (2.0% in first year)	Variable	Scale with platform usage and revenue in the break-even model.	Assuming hosting stays flat as order volume grows.
Operational Support (3.0% in first year)	Variable	Tie support load to transaction activity and revenue volume.	Burying shipment support inside fixed admin spend.
Sales & Marketing Variable Component (8.0% in first year)	Variable	Apply only to revenue-linked selling activity, separate from annual marketing budgets.	Double counting it with acquisition budget spend.

How does break-even shift from a lean launch to the base plan and the full-scale case?

Scenario table

Lean stays loss-making because fixed overhead outruns contribution, the base plan is close to cover, and the full case has a wide cushion. The real hinge is signed shipper demand before the team hires ahead.

Planning figures only; actual break-even will move with customer mix, pricing, and hiring pace.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Year 1 lean launch case	$2.18M	$1.42M	$805k	35%	-$43k	Still short of break-even; more signed shippers are needed before adding staff.
Year 2 base plan case	$3.31M	$2.05M	$1.23M	38%	$28k	Near break-even; signed demand can cover overhead if hiring stays paced.
Year 5 full scale case	$7.52M	$4.06M	$2.72M	46%	$736k	Above break-even with cushion; keep volume quality high so margin holds.

What pushes the freight forwarding plan below break-even?

Stress test

The base plan clears break-even at about $942k a month, but it leaves little room for slippage. A 10% revenue miss, a 10% fixed-cost jump, or a 3-point margin hit can erase the cushion fast.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change; fixed spend stays at $805k a month and contribution margin stays at 85.5%.	$942k/month	$0 cushion	No cushion if conversion softens.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue lands 10% below plan.	$942k/month	$81k gap	A small sales miss quickly opens a gap.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed spend rises 10% to about $885.5k a month.	$1.036M/month	$94k gap	Headcount or overhead growth pushes break-even higher.
Margin pressure	Variable expense load rises from 14.5% to 17.5%.	$976k/month	$34k gap	Higher processing and support costs eat the margin.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10% while fixed spend rises 10% and variable load rises to 17.5%.	$1.036M/month	$187k gap	Slower conversion and higher cost load can break the plan.

Can you prove the freight pipeline and cash path before you lock in the lease and the first big spend?

Founder checklist

Don’t sign the lease or add staff until buyer and seller demand can support the Month 17 break-even path. The test is simple: pipeline, CAC, rent cover, and cash all need to hold before you spend the Year 1 acquisition budgets.

1Repeat orders15/40/25

Verify repeat orders at 15 SMB importers, 40 e-commerce brands, and 25 enterprise shippers before you commit to scale, because break-even needs real order flow, not one-off quotes.

2Buyer CAC$1,000

Test buyer acquisition against the $1,000 CAC before spending the $150,000 first-year buyer budget, or growth spend will outrun demand.

3Seller CAC$1,500

Confirm seller acquisition stays near the $1,500 CAC before spending the $100,000 first-year seller budget, because supply has to show up before the platform can scale.

4Rent cover$5k/mo

Do not expand the office until booked revenue can cover the $5,000 monthly rent, since fixed costs hit fast in freight forwarding.

5Hiring rampMonth 17

Delay noncritical hiring until the Month 17 break-even path is visible, so payroll does not outrun the operating model.

6Cash discipline$48k

Keep at least the $48,000 cash floor in Month 16 and separate pass-through freight charges from earned revenue, or the margin picture will look better than it is.