Investigative Genetic Genealogy Break-Even at $208K/Month

Fixed costs $24.1K/mo Monthly base

Contribution margin 68.5% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $35.1K/mo Revenue target

Break-even timing Month 31 Forecast turn point

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test monthly revenue against variable expenses and fixed costs, and see where break-even lands.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the cash coming in each month before direct costs and fixed overhead. $ Low revenue High revenue Variable expenses These are direct costs that rise with case volume, like lab fees, subscriptions, and case support. $ Low direct cost High direct cost

Money available to cover fixed costs $149,877 $207,583 revenue - $57,706 variable expenses

Margin ratio

72%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead the business must cover before profit starts. $ Low overhead High overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses are fixed and which move with sales in an investigative genetic genealogy service?

Cost classification

Break-even only works if lab fees and database access reduce contribution margin while rent, security, insurance, and core admin stay fixed. Payroll is semi-fixed because hiring adds capacity in chunks, not one case at a time.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Third-Party DNA Lab Fees	Variable	Model as 12.0% of revenue in the first year and 11.0% in Year 3.	Don’t exclude lab work from contribution margin.
Database Access and Subscriptions	Variable	Model as 8.0% of revenue in the first year and 7.0% in Year 3.	Don’t treat all database spend as flat overhead when the model scales it with revenue.
Office Rent and Utilities	Fixed	Include $8,500 per month from Month 1 through Month 60.	Don’t wait for cases before budgeting it.
IT Infrastructure and Security	Fixed	Include $4,200 per month for secure case handling.	Don’t underfund security in the break-even base.
Insurance and Bonding	Fixed	Include $2,800 per month before calculating required case volume.	Don’t price cases before including risk coverage.
Accounting and Legal Services	Fixed	Include $3,200 per month as recurring overhead.	Don’t confuse it with Legal and Compliance Consulting at 3.5% to 2.8% of revenue.
Senior Genetic Genealogist payroll	Semi-fixed	Model $135,000 annual salary per full-time employee as capacity added in hiring steps.	Don’t hire ahead of referral proof.
Case Manager payroll	Semi-fixed	Model $85,000 annual salary per full-time employee as intake workload expands.	Don’t ignore intake workload when case volume grows.

How does break-even shift from a lean referral test to a full-service genetic genealogy team?

Scenario table

Lean averages about $58k a month and still misses overhead, base reaches break-even around Month 31, and full-service adds a real cushion. The shift is mostly mix and scale as variable load falls and higher-fee work grows.

Planning assumptions only; actual case mix, lab fees, and staffing can move these figures.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean referral test	$58.2k	$18.3k	$68.8k	68.5%	-$29.0k	Still below overhead; good for referral testing.
Base break-even mix	$207.6k	$57.7k	$149.0k	72.2%	$0.8k	Covers fixed cost around Month 31.
Full staffed service	$441.0k	$106.7k	$216.3k	75.8%	$118.0k	Adds cushion for staffed agency and expert witness work.

What breaks the break-even plan for this investigative genetic genealogy service?

Stress test

Year 3 is only a hair above break-even, so slower case intake, heavier research work, or higher overhead can push it back into loss. A 15% revenue drop, a 10% fixed-cost jump, or a 5-point margin hit each widen the gap fast.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$2,491,000	$10,000 cushion	Thin cushion, so one miss matters.
Revenue shortfall	Year 3 revenue falls 15% to about $2,117,000.	$2,377,000	$260,000 gap	Fewer referrals and a lower close rate hit intake.
Fixed-cost pressure	Add 10% to the implied Year 3 fixed base.	$2,660,000	$169,000 gap	Delayed agency approvals leave overhead exposed.
Margin pressure	Add 5 points to Year 3 variable costs; margin drops from 72.2% to 67.2%.	$2,606,000	$115,000 gap	Overtime research hours and subscription costs squeeze margin.
Combined pressure	Apply the revenue shortfall, fixed-cost increase, and margin hit together.	$3,036,000	$545,000 gap	Referrals, approvals, and expert review bottlenecks stack fast.

What should you verify before you lock in the first major spend for this investigative genetic genealogy service?

Founder checklist

Confirm referrals already exist in cold cases, unidentified remains, expert witness work, and federal cases before you expand past the Year 1 core team, because break-even needs real intake, not hoped-for demand. The non-payroll fixed load is $24,050 a month, and the model stays cash-negative through the early years.

1Referral PipelineVisible referrals

Confirm cases are already coming in across the main service lines before you add more staff, because break-even only works with real intake.

2Fixed Load$24.05K/mo

Verify you can carry the monthly rent, IT, insurance, training, supplies, accounting, phones, and travel load before you lock the office and systems.

3Margin Check~68.5% CM

Test pricing against $185, $165, $275, and $220 per hour; with variable costs at 31.5% of revenue, contribution needs to stay near 68.5%.

4Workflow LockBefore DB spend

Lock privacy safeguards and the secure case-review flow before you pay for database access, because controlled data handling shapes delivery and trust.

5Core Team3 FTE

Keep hiring capped at 1 CEO and Lead Genetic Genealogist, 1 Senior Genetic Genealogist, and 1 Case Manager in Year 1 until turnaround stays stable.

6Cash TimingMonth 31 / -$98K

Plan for the $98,000 cash trough in Month 31, and delay major setup spend if referrals are not visible, because EBITDA stays negative in Years 1 and 2.