Irish Pub Break-Even Analysis: About $36K in Monthly Sales

Fixed costs $29.4K Monthly fixed base

Contribution margin 82% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $35.9K Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 4 Planned crossover

Break-even calculator

Use this to test whether monthly revenue covers variable costs and then fixed overhead.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the cash coming in before direct costs. $ Low sales Busy month Variable expenses These costs rise with food, drinks, and promos. $ Low spend High spend

Money available to cover fixed costs $62,198 $75,300 revenue - $13,102 variable expenses

Margin ratio

83%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead margin must cover. $ Lean overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which pub expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even is only as good as the split between overhead and sales-linked costs. In the first year, rent and baseline payroll carry the floor, while ingredients and platform fees move with revenue.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Rent	Fixed	Include $4,000 in monthly overhead.	Spreading rent across each cover.
Property Insurance	Fixed	Include $250 in monthly overhead.	Tying insurance to guest volume.
Music Licensing	Fixed	Include $100 in monthly overhead.	Burying it inside marketing spend.
Food Ingredients	Variable	Apply 8% of sales in the first year.	Treating inventory as fixed overhead.
Beverage Ingredients	Variable	Apply 2% of sales in the first year.	Ignoring higher sales as volume grows.
Marketing & Promotions	Variable	Apply 5% of sales in the first year.	Modeling all promotion spend as fixed.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Model $800 as base overhead, then stress-test heavy nights.	Assuming usage never rises with covers.
Payroll Wages	Semi-fixed	Use staffing steps; first-year payroll is about $23.1k/month.	Treating wages as variable per order.

How does break-even shift from a lean neighborhood pub to a full destination pub?

Scenario table

Higher covers and ticket size lift contribution margin (CM, revenue left after variable costs), so the same fixed cost base gets covered faster. Lean trade sits near zero, the base case clears fixed costs, and the full case opens a much wider cushion.

Planning assumptions only; actual trade can run above or below these levels.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean neighborhood pub	$359K	$65K	$294K	82%	$0K	Near break-even; a small sales miss can turn profit into loss.
Base year 1 pub	$556K	$100K	$294K	82%	$162K	Clear cushion; fixed costs are covered with room left over.
Full destination pub	$1.103M	$183K	$369K	83.4%	$551K	Wide cushion; strong traffic keeps break-even risk low.

What breaks the break-even plan if traffic softens or costs jump?

Stress test

Base case revenue of $556K sits about $197K above the $359K break-even point, but that cushion shrinks fast if weekdays soften or payroll, food waste, platform fees, or rent climb.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$359K	$197K cushion	Healthy start, but volume still matters.
Revenue shortfall	Sales fall 15% to about $472K.	$359K	$93K cushion	Weaker weekday traffic trims the safety buffer fast.
Fixed-cost pressure	Payroll rises 10%, lifting fixed costs by about $23K.	$387K	$169K cushion	Staffing creep pushes the break-even line up.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise 5 points, cutting contribution margin to 77%.	$382K	$174K cushion	Food cost and fee pressure make each sale work less.
Combined pressure	Sales fall 25% while variable expenses rise 5 points, payroll rises 10%, and rent rises 20%.	$425K	$8K gap	A small miss turns the month into a loss.

What should you verify before you sign the lease and start buildout for this Irish pub?

Founder checklist

Test weekly covers, ticket size, staff load, and cash before you sign the lease. The model only clears break-even in Month 4, so you need real weekday traffic and enough reserve to survive the 16-month payback.

1Weekly Covers630/week

Verify the area can produce 630 covers a week, with 50 to 80 covers Monday through Thursday, because that base demand has to be there before the pub can clear break-even.

2Ticket Size$18/$22

Check that weekday checks average $18 and weekend checks average $22, because ticket size is what turns guest traffic into the revenue the model assumes.

3Lease Rent$4.0K/mo

Check the lease against the $4,000 monthly rent and any escalators, because the full fixed overhead still runs about $6.3K a month before wages.

4Margin Stack82% CM

Lock food at 8% and beverage at 2%, and keep marketing and online fees at 5% and 3%, because that leaves about 82% contribution margin before fixed costs.

5Staffing Ramp7.0 FTE

Keep Year 1 staffing at 7.0 FTE and about $23.1K a month in wages, because later years rise to 11.5 FTE and the pub still has to cover busy nights without overhiring.

6Cash Cushion$837K

Before you spend the $110.5K capex stack, confirm the liquor license path is workable and still hold the $837K minimum cash reserve, because break-even lands in Month 4 and payback takes 16 months.