Kosher Food Break-Even Analysis: $137k Monthly Revenue Target

Fixed costs $11.1K Monthly base cost

Contribution margin 81% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $13.7K Monthly revenue target

Break-even timing Month 2 Model payback point

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against break-even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the cash pool that covers variable costs and overhead. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses Direct food, packaging, fuel, and payment fees rise with sales. $ Low costs High costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $115,080 $140,000 revenue - $24,920 variable expenses

Margin ratio

82%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs Rent, wages, permits, and other monthly overhead must be covered. $ Lean overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which kosher food expenses stay fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even only works if each expense follows the right sales driver. Here, ingredients, packaging, fuel, and card fees move with revenue, while rent and insurance set the monthly floor.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Food Ingredients	Variable	Model at 14.0% of first year revenue, falling to 13.0% by mature year.	Treating prep waste, spoilage, and owner-handled prep time as free.
Packaging Supplies	Variable	Model at 2.5% of first year revenue, improving to 2.0% as volume scales.	Leaving out bags, seals, labels, and catering-style packaging.
Fuel Costs	Variable	Model at 1.5% of first year revenue, tied to routes, events, and delivery volume.	Assuming driving is free because the owner runs the truck.
POS Transaction Fees	Variable	Model at 0.8% of first year revenue, then 0.7% from the third year onward.	Using gross sales but forgetting card and payment processing fees.
Commissary Kitchen Rent	Fixed	Include $1,000 per month before calculating the sales needed to break even.	Spreading rent only across busy days and understating slow-day losses.
Truck Insurance	Fixed	Include $300 per month as a recurring operating charge.	Dropping insurance from the break-even model after launch month.
Scheduled Truck Maintenance	Semi-fixed	Start with $200 per month, then review when routes, hours, or equipment use step up.	Treating maintenance as optional until repairs hit cash flow.
Utilities Commissary Share	Semi-variable	Start with the $100 monthly share, then adjust for prep volume and storage use.	Assuming water, power, refrigeration, and storage do not rise with volume.

How does break-even change as the kosher food truck moves from lean to base to full scale?

Scenario table

Scale lifts revenue faster than costs, so the break-even cushion grows as the model moves from lean to full. Payroll steps up too, but the higher contribution margin still leaves room above break-even.

Planning figures are model assumptions, not guarantees, and actual break-even will move with sales mix, staffing, and ingredient cost swings.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean Year 1 kosher truck	$637k	$120k	$111k	81.2%	$406k	Revenue stays well above the $137k break-even signal.
Base Year 2 kosher truck	$1.0m	$184k	$138k	81.6%	$678k	Healthy cushion; break-even sits near $169k.
Full Year 3 kosher truck	$1.41m	$251k	$179k	82.2%	$981k	Largest cushion; break-even rises to about $217k.

What breaks the break-even plan for this kosher food truck?

Stress test

On paper, Year 1 still clears break-even by a wide margin, but that cushion can shrink if weekday traffic slows, Friday-to-Sunday waste rises, or staff hours creep up. The real risk is sales softness plus margin pressure, not one cost line.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$136,700	$500,300 cushion	Wide cushion before taxes and debt service.
Revenue shortfall	Year 1 revenue falls 15% from plan.	$136,700	$404,750 cushion	Slow weekday covers and weak repeat demand cut the buffer.
Fixed-cost increase	Service Window Staff rises from 1.0 FTE to 1.5 FTE.	$158,251	$478,749 cushion	Higher supervision hours lift the fixed-cost floor.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise from 18.8% to 22.8% of sales.	$143,782	$493,218 cushion	Friday-to-Sunday waste, fuel, and packaging pressure the margin.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 25%, service staff rises to 1.5 FTE, and variable expenses rise to 22.8% of sales.	$158,251	$319,499 cushion	Slow weekday covers and weekend waste leave less room for error.

Can this kosher food launch clear break-even before you sign the lease, buy the truck, or place the first big inventory order?

Founder checklist

Don’t commit until the first-year demand, pricing, and cash needs look real. Year 1 breaks even by Month 2, but the plan still needs $848K of minimum cash, so each check below should pass before you spend.

1Weekly covers700/week

Verify your first-year route, preorder, and walk-up demand can hit 700 covers a week, because that is the volume built into the model.

2Ticket mix$17 / $24

Check that weekday orders clear about $17 and weekend orders about $24, since that price split drives break-even more than raw traffic.

3Margin base81.2% CM

Hold food ingredients at 14.0%, packaging at 2.5%, fuel at 1.5%, and POS fees at 0.8%; that leaves an 81.2% contribution margin before wages and rent, so supervision, sourcing, prep separation, storage, and labeling need to stay tight.

4Overhead load$2.15K/mo

Keep commissary rent at $1,000 and total fixed overhead at $2,150 a month; if that drifts, the break-even date moves fast.

5Labor ramp1.0-2.5 FTE

Make sure 1.0 chef-owner, 1.0 service staff, and 0.5 marketing FTE can handle Year 1, then add the prep cook in Month 13 and relief driver in Month 25 without breaking throughput.

6Cash runway$848K / Month 2

Verify you can carry the $213K capex build and still stay above the $848K minimum cash point in Month 2, because that is the tightest launch window.