US Landfill Break-Even Revenue: About $172K Per Month

Fixed costs $95K/mo Overhead base

Contribution margin 84% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $113.1K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 1 Launch month

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against monthly break-even for landfill operations.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the pool that covers direct costs and fixed overhead. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses Use direct costs that move with site activity and disposal volume. $ Lower direct cost Higher direct cost

Money available to cover fixed costs $2,615,834 $3,041,667 revenue - $425,833 variable expenses

Margin ratio

86%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs These are the monthly overhead costs contribution margin has to cover. $ Lean overhead Heavier overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which landfill expenses stay fixed, and which move with revenue?

Cost classification

Break-even only works if fixed coverage and volume-linked charges are separated. In the first operating year, fixed overhead is $95K/month before payroll, while revenue-linked operating charges reduce contribution margin.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Regulatory Permitting Fees	Fixed	Carry as $15K/month overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Tying the fee to tons accepted.
Financial Assurance Premiums	Fixed	Include $20K/month in the fixed monthly coverage target.	Leaving it below the break-even line.
Site Closure & Post-Closure Fund	Fixed	Include $30K/month because it recurs across the planning period.	Excluding it as a future obligation.
Landfill payroll	Semi-fixed	Model Year 1 staffing at $595K/year, or about $49.6K/month, then step up when headcount rises.	Treating all labor as fully variable.
Leachate Treatment & Disposal	Variable	Apply as 5.0% of first-year revenue, falling to 4.0% by the mature year.	Modeling it as a flat monthly bill.
Fuel & Heavy Equipment Operations	Variable	Apply as 4.0% of first-year revenue, falling to 3.0% by the mature year.	Ignoring fuel sensitivity as volume grows.
Environmental Monitoring	Variable	Apply as 3.0% of first-year revenue, falling to 2.0% by the mature year.	Assuming monitoring does not scale with operations.
Host Community Royalties	Variable	Apply as 4.0% of first-year revenue, falling to 3.0% by the mature year.	Forgetting royalties in contribution margin.

How does break-even change from launch to full-scale landfill operations?

Scenario table

Break-even gets stronger as utilization rises because revenue grows faster than variable costs. Fixed costs also stay fairly stable, so each step up in scale adds more monthly cushion.

Scenario figures are planning assumptions, not guaranteed results.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Launch case	$1.50M	$240K	$145K	84%	$1.12M	Still above break-even, but the cushion is the thinnest here.
Steady-state case	$3.04M	$426K	$161K	86%	$2.46M	Strong cushion; this is the cleanest planning case for normal operations.
Full-capacity case	$4.71M	$565K	$173K	88%	$3.97M	Largest cushion; use this case to test staffing and equipment load.

What breaks first if landfill revenue dips, compliance costs rise, or fixed overhead runs hot?

Stress test

Year 1 has a wide cushion, but it shrinks fastest when contracted tons soften, tipping fees compress, or leachate and compliance costs move up. The break-even floor is low now, yet cost inflation can still eat the buffer.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change to Year 1 revenue, 16.0% variable cost rate, or $1.735M fixed costs.	$2.1M	$15.9M cushion	Strong buffer, but the floor is set by fixed overhead.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue falls 10% to $16.2M.	$2.1M	$14.1M cushion	Lower tonnage cuts cushion fast, even if costs hold.
Fixed-cost pressure	Monthly fixed costs double from $95k to $190k.	$4.1M	$13.9M cushion	Permitting, assurance, and admin cost growth raise the break-even floor.
Margin pressure	Variable cost rate rises from 16.0% to 19.0% of revenue.	$2.1M	$15.9M cushion	Leachate, fuel, monitoring, and royalties hit margin first.
Combined pressure	Revenue drops 10%, variable cost rate rises to 19.0%, and fixed costs double.	$4.3M	$11.9M cushion	Weak contracted tons plus cost inflation compress the buffer quickly.

What should the founder verify before committing to the landfill buildout?

Founder checklist

With about $145K of monthly fixed load and an 84% Year 1 contribution margin, break-even is only about $172K a month. The real test is whether site control, the permit path, cash, and waste volume are ready before the $22.0M buildout.

1Site Control$22.0M build

Verify site control before land spend, confirm the permit path, and do not start the $22.0M buildout until those are in hand.

2Waste Commitments$18.0M Yr 1

Verify committed tonnage and special waste can support the $18.0M Year 1 revenue plan, or the fixed base will outrun intake.

3Fixed Burn$145K/mo

Check that fixed expenses plus Year 1 core payroll stay near $145K a month, because that is the cash floor before variable costs.

4Fee Floor84% CM

Price tipping fees so Year 1 can hold about an 84% contribution margin, which puts the monthly operating break-even near $172K.

5Core Staff7.5 FTE

Start with the Month 1 core team, then delay extra hires until tonnage supports them; add the gas technician in Month 13, not before.

6Cash Cushion-$13.368M

Map funding to the Month 9 cash trough, where minimum cash reaches -$13.368M, so the build does not outrun reserves.