Liquor Store Break-Even Analysis: $236K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $18.3K/mo Launch overhead base

Contribution margin 80.5% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $22.7K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 22 Model crossover

Break-even calculator

Use this to see whether monthly sales cover direct costs and fixed overhead.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue This is the sales line that has to cover direct costs and overhead. $ Slow month Busy month Variable expenses These are sales-linked costs like inventory, card fees, and promo spend. $ Lean costs Heavy costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $41,020 $49,600 revenue - $8,580 variable expenses

Margin ratio

83%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead the store must cover before profit starts. $ Light overhead Heavier overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which liquor store expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even only works when stable overhead and sales-driven expenses are split cleanly. Here, fixed payroll and rent carry the store each month, while inventory, event supplies, and card fees rise with revenue.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Retail Space Rent	Fixed	Include $4,000 per month in fixed overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Underestimating location drag before traffic builds.
Store Manager Payroll	Fixed	Include 1.0 FTE at $65,000 per year, or about $5,417 per month, in fixed monthly payroll.	Treating core store leadership as optional.
Retail Associate Payroll	Semi-fixed	Model as staffing steps as coverage rises from 1.5 FTE in the first year to 3.0 FTE in the mature year.	Ignoring coverage needs as visitor count grows.
Wholesale Inventory Cost	Variable	Apply as a percentage of revenue, starting at 12.0% in the first year and falling to 10.0% by the mature year.	Treating inventory purchases as fixed overhead.
Event Inventory Cost	Variable	Apply to revenue tied to tasting activity, starting at 3.0% in the first year and falling to 2.0% by the mature year.	Missing the product used during tastings.
Payment Processing Fees	Variable	Apply as a sales-linked fee, starting at 1.5% of revenue in the first year and falling to 1.0% by the mature year.	Forgetting card-heavy retail sales.
Utilities Electricity Internet	Semi-variable	Use the $800 monthly baseline, then stress-test higher usage as hours, refrigeration, and store traffic rise.	Assuming utilities never move with activity.
Security System Monitoring	Fixed	Include $150 per month in fixed overhead for shrink control and store monitoring.	Excluding shrink controls from break-even overhead.

How does break-even shift across lean, base, and full liquor store setups?

Scenario table

Lean staffing lowers fixed cost, but it also leaves less room for weak traffic and shrink. As the store adds repeat buyers, events, and more staff, the margin improves and break-even gets safer.

Planning assumptions only; actual break-even will move with sales mix, payroll, shrink, and rent.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean liquor store	$236k	$46k	$190k	80.5%	$0	Just breaks even, so small sales dips matter.
Balanced liquor store	$279k	$48k	$231k	82.7%	$0	Near break-even with a little more room, but wages still need control.
Full-volume liquor store	$309k	$46k	$263k	85.0%	$0	Strongest cushion, with room for more staff and events.

What pushes this liquor store off break-even?

Stress test

The base plan breaks even at about $236,000 a month on roughly $190,000 of fixed cost. A 10% sales miss, a 10% fixed-cost jump, or weaker margin from higher card fees, inventory shrink, or a softer premium-spirits mix can push it back into loss.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$236,000	$0 cushion	Base case sits right at break-even.
Revenue shortfall	Sales run 10% below plan.	$236,000	$19,000 gap	Weak foot traffic turns into a monthly loss.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise 10% to about $209,000 a month.	$260,000	$19,000 gap	Higher overhead pushes the store into loss.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise from 19.5% to 22.5% of sales.	$245,000	$7,000 gap	Card fees, shrink, or mix pressure eat margin.
Combined pressure	Sales run 10% below plan, fixed costs rise 10%, and variable expenses rise to 22.5%.	$270,000	$44,000 gap	Weak traffic plus higher overhead creates a deep monthly hole.

Can this liquor store clear break-even before you sign the lease and place the first inventory order?

Founder checklist

Check the lease, staffing, and opening cash against the model before you commit. If Year 1 fixed costs run past the $190K base, the store has to prove early traffic and margin can carry the first two years.

1Traffic target$236K/mo

Verify the early visitor flow can support the monthly revenue budget before you lock the lease.

2Fixed load$190K Yr 1

Make sure rent fits inside the Year 1 fixed-cost base, including the $500 monthly licensing and compliance line.

3Margin check84.4% CM

Confirm the Year 1 product mix still clears about 84.4% contribution after inventory cost and payment fees.

4Payroll ramp3.5 FTE

Check that the opening schedule can support 1 manager, 1.5 associates, 0.5 marketing and events, and 0.5 part-time event staff.

5Cash reserve$545K

Hold enough cash to reach the Month 25 low point, because the model needs that cushion even after Month 22 breakeven.

6Launch spend$108K + $30K

Keep the $75K build-out, $20K shelving, $8K POS hardware, and $5K security install separate from the $30K initial inventory buy.