Lockable Display Case Sales Break-Even Analysis: $126K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $90.4K/mo Monthly base

Contribution margin 70.3% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $128.5K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 1 Launch month

Break-even calculator

Test monthly sales, direct costs, and overhead against monthly break-even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Sales from display case orders before costs. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses Direct costs that rise with each sale. $ Low direct cost High direct cost

Money available to cover fixed costs $943,200 $1,323,333 revenue - $380,133 variable expenses

Margin ratio

71%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs Monthly overhead the margin must cover. $ Lean overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which lockable display case expenses are fixed, variable, semi-variable, or semi-fixed?

Cost classification

Break-even is only useful if each expense lands in the right bucket. Freight, commissions, warranty reserves, and unit parts move with sales, while rent and core overhead don’t.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Design Studio Rent	Fixed	Include $12,000 per month in fixed overhead for the relevant planning range.	Spreading rent across units and hiding the true monthly hurdle.
Trade Show Marketing	Fixed	Include $8,500 per month before contribution margin is tested.	Treating recurring marketing spend as optional after launch.
Sales Commissions	Variable	Apply as a revenue-linked charge: 5.0% in the first year and second year, then lower rates in later years.	Modeling commissions as fixed payroll instead of tying them to closed sales.
White Glove Logistics	Variable	Apply as a revenue-linked delivery charge: 4.0% in the first year, stepping down in later years.	Treating freight as fixed when it rises with order volume.
Warranty Reserve Fund	Variable	Reserve 1.0% of revenue for repairs, damage, and customer claims tied to shipped cases.	Classifying damage reserves like insurance instead of volume-linked risk.
Jewelry Tower Case unit inputs	Variable	Use $780 per unit for glass, lock, frame, assembly labor, and packaging.	Budgeting materials once per month instead of per unit sold.
Utilities and facility utility allocation	Semi-variable	Split the $3,000 monthly utility base from the 0.8% revenue-based facility allocation.	Putting all utility spend in fixed overhead and missing usage creep.
B2B Sales Manager headcount	Semi-fixed	Model salary in staffing steps, from 2.0 FTE in the first year to 6.0 FTE in the mature year.	Treating sales hiring like a commission rate instead of a capacity step.

How does break-even move from a lean launch to a full ramp in lockable display case sales?

Scenario table

Early on, fixed payroll and overhead do most of the damage, so the business needs only enough gross margin to cover them. As revenue scales, break-even improves if freight and sales costs fall faster than headcount grows.

Scenario figures are planning assumptions built from the model, not guarantees.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch break-even case	$127K	$36K	$90K	71.3%	$0	Right at break-even; any slip in mix or price creates loss.
Year 1 base case	$1.32M	$380K	$90K	71.3%	$853K	Month 1 breaks even with a wide cushion.
Year 5 scaled case	$6.15M	$1.31M	$182K	78.6%	$4.65M	Scale widens cushion, but payroll is still the main load.

What breaks the break-even plan for lockable display case sales?

Stress test

Here’s the quick math: the base plan clears break-even at about $126K a month, with a wide cushion. The pressure points are discounting, freight, damage claims, and adding showroom or warehouse overhead before sales visibility improves.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change from the sourced plan.	$126K	$1.20M cushion	The base case clears break-even easily.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue falls 20% from the Year 1 average.	$126K	$934K cushion	Slower B2B closes still leave room.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed costs rise 20% from the sourced base.	$151K	$1.17M cushion	Overhead creep lifts the hurdle, but not much.
Margin pressure	Contribution margin falls 5 points from 72% to 67%.	$135K	$1.19M cushion	Discounts, freight, and damage claims eat cushion fast.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 20%, margin drops 5 points, and fixed costs rise 20%.	$162K	$897K cushion	The plan still clears break-even, but the cushion shrinks.

What should you verify before signing the lease and placing the first display case order?

Founder checklist

Test the first big commitment against the model, not hope. If you cannot show 43 visible cases a month, about $90.4K of monthly fixed load, and roughly 63% CM, pause the lease, the inventory buy, and extra hiring.

1Demand floor43/mo

Confirm at least 43 visible cases a month before you scale overhead, because the Year 1 plan only works if demand shows up early.

2Fixed load$90.4K/mo

Check that rent, software, marketing, insurance, utilities, and Year 1 wages can clear this monthly base before any growth spend.

3Margin mix63% CM

Contribution margin (CM, the sales left after variable costs) needs to stay near this level after unit parts, freight, commissions, and logistics.

4Sales coverage2 reps

Verify that two B2B sales managers can carry the Year 1 volume of 5,400 cases, and delay extra customer success hiring until Month 13 is real.

5Supply cadenceReorder ready

Make sure glass, locks, frames, crates, and custom hardware can be reordered by product line, and keep sample units separate from saleable stock.

6Cash floor$1.204M

Keep the $565K capex bucket separate from operating break-even, and do not launch spend unless the minimum cash need still shows on hand.