Makeup Manufacturing Break-Even Analysis: $113K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $82.6K/mo Launch overhead base

Contribution margin 73% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $113K/mo Monthly sales target

Break-even timing Month 13 Model break point

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against break-even for a makeup manufacturing model.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the money available to cover direct costs and fixed overhead. $ Early sales Peak sales Variable expenses Use direct costs that rise with sales, like commissions, shipping, and production spend. $ Light costs Higher costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $233,563 $254,250 revenue - $20,687 variable expenses

Margin ratio

92%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs Use the monthly cost base the business must cover even before growth. $ Lean overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which makeup manufacturing expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Your Month 13 break-even only holds if rent and salaried payroll stay in overhead while materials, direct labor, commissions, shipping, and quality consumables move with units or revenue. Misclassification can overstate contribution margin fast.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Manufacturing Facility Rent	Fixed	Include the $15,000 monthly rent in fixed overhead before testing break-even volume.	Spreading rent across units only, which hides idle capacity risk.
CEO, chemist, production manager, quality control, sales manager, lab technician, and production staff payroll	Fixed	Include first-year salaried payroll of $685,000 per year, or about $57,100 per month, in monthly overhead.	Treating salaried supervision and staff as per-unit labor.
Raw materials, pigments, actives, tubes, palettes, bottles, and packaging components	Variable	Include these as product-level inputs tied to each unit produced and sold.	Hiding packaging inside marketing instead of unit economics.
Direct production labor and filling labor	Variable	Include per unit; direct production and filling run from $0.70 to $1.50 per unit across the product line.	Double counting salaried production staff in unit labor.
Sales Commissions and Shipping & Logistics	Variable	Subtract from revenue; combined rates start at 8.0% in the first year and fall to 5.0% by Year 5.	Excluding fulfillment pressure from break-even contribution.
Utilities (Factory & Office) and Utility Surcharge	Semi-variable	Keep $2,500 monthly utilities in overhead and apply the 0.1% to 0.2% utility surcharge to revenue.	Blending fixed utilities and usage-linked surcharges into one rate.
Regulatory Compliance Fees	Semi-fixed	Include the $800 monthly fee and test step-ups as production scale or compliance workload grows.	Treating compliance as optional during launch planning.
Quality Control Consumables	Variable	Include as 0.2% to 0.5% of revenue, depending on the product mix.	Burying quality assurance in overhead instead of volume-linked spend.

How does break-even change across lean, base, and full makeup manufacturing cases?

Scenario table

As the mix moves from lean to full, variable costs fall from 27.0% to 24.5%, so contribution margin rises from 73.0% to 75.5%. That gives more room to cover fixed overhead, but Month 13 break-even still reflects the launch ramp.

Planning figures use model assumptions, so they show direction, not a promise.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch mix	$1.212M	$327.2K	$826K	73.0%	$58.8K	Closest to the line, so launch timing matters.
Base steady run	$1.859M	$479.3K	$863K	74.2%	$516.7K	Best steady-run case with stronger cost absorption.
Full throughput scale-up	$2.543M	$622.0K	$982K	75.5%	$939.0K	Strongest cushion if throughput stays high.

What breaks the break-even plan if sales slip or costs rise?

Stress test

Base plan revenue is $1,212K versus $1,131K break-even, so the cushion is only $81K. A 10% sales miss, a 10% fixed-cost jump, or a 5-point margin drop can wipe that out; together they push the gap to $244K.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$1,131K	$81K cushion	Only a small cushion sits above break-even.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue falls 10% below plan.	$1,131K	$40K gap	A modest sales miss turns the cushion into a loss.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed overhead rises 10% from rent, utilities, and staff.	$1,244K	$32K gap	Overhead creep pushes break-even above base sales.
Margin pressure	Contribution margin falls 5 points from packaging inflation and freight.	$1,215K	$3K gap	Cost pressure almost removes the cushion.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10%, fixed overhead rises 10%, and margin falls 5 points.	$1,335K	$244K gap	Sales miss plus margin squeeze creates a large funding gap.

Can this makeup line clear break-even before you sign the lease?

Founder checklist

Before you sign a lease or buy equipment, prove orders can cover the $1.131M monthly break-even target and that you can still hold $747K through Month 13. Keep the $520K capex separate, then confirm batch output, QA, supplier MOQs, and staffing can support Year 1 volume.

1Demand Proof$1.131M/mo

Verify real purchase orders, not sample interest, can support the monthly break-even revenue before you lock in fixed overhead.

2Fixed Load$78.8K/mo

Check that rent, utilities, insurance, R&D, compliance, admin, IT, legal, and Year 1 payroll can be funded without starving operations.

3Unit Margin73.1% CM

Verify the first-year mix keeps about $1.062M after unit COGS, production overhead, commissions, and shipping on $1.454M revenue.

4Launch Volume50,000 units

Confirm the opening-year plan can move 10,000 foundation, 15,000 lip gloss, 5,000 eyeshadow palettes, 12,000 mascara, and 8,000 serum units.

5Cash Cushion$747K / M13

Keep enough cash to reach the Month 13 trough, since breakeven lands in Month 13 and payback takes 31 months.

6GMP SupplyMOQs set

Lock supplier minimum order quantities for ingredients, pigments, actives, tubes, palettes, bottles, and droppers, then test yield, scrap, fill speed, and label accuracy before bulk buys.