Masago Capelin Roe Break-Even: About $75K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $60.1K/mo Monthly run-rate

Contribution margin 80.5% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $74.6K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 2 Launch ramp

Break-even calculator

Use this to test monthly revenue against variable expenses and fixed costs, then see how far you are from break-even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the pool that pays variable and fixed costs. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These rise with sales, like sourcing, freight, and distribution fees. $ Lower costs Higher costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $108,003 $134,167 revenue - $26,164 variable expenses

Margin ratio

80%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base break-even has to cover. $ Lean base Heavy base

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which masago supply expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Your break-even is only useful if percentage costs reduce contribution margin and payroll stays in monthly overhead. Here’s the quick math: first-year revenue is $1.610 million, so the 19.5% variable load is about $314,000 before fixed overhead and payroll.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Raw Roe Sourcing and Procurement	Variable	Deduct 10.0% of revenue from each sale when calculating contribution margin.	Treating roe as fixed makes each case look more profitable than it is.
Processing and Flavor Infusion Materials	Variable	Deduct 3.5% of revenue with unit volume because materials rise as product moves.	Leaving it in overhead overstates margin on flavored items.
Cold Chain Freight and Logistics	Variable	Deduct 4.0% of revenue as shipments grow with restaurant and food service orders.	Classifying freight as fixed overstates contribution margin and hides route pressure.
Sales Commissions and Distribution Fees	Variable	Deduct 2.0% of revenue because fees move directly with sales volume.	Putting commissions in fixed overhead makes break-even volume look too low.
Cold Storage Facility Rent	Fixed	Include $6,500 per month in fixed overhead for the current planning range.	Spreading rent across units can hide the cash needed every month.
Quality Control Lab Maintenance	Fixed	Include $2,200 per month as recurring overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Dropping lab maintenance from break-even understates seafood compliance overhead.
Marketing and Trade Show Presence	Fixed	Include $4,000 per month unless the selling plan changes materially.	Calling it discretionary can make the first-year break-even target look easier.
Operating Payroll	Semi-fixed	Include salaried roles monthly, then step up when FTE counts increase.	Excluding payroll understates monthly break-even, especially as sales and account staffing grows.

How does break-even shift from a lean Orange-only launch to the base mix and full-scale foodservice build?

Scenario table

Lean keeps CM, or contribution margin, dollars too low to cover fixed overhead, so break-even risk stays high. Base clears the line by Month 2, and full scale widens the cushion as more volume spreads the same fixed cost.

Planning assumptions only; freight, spoilage, inventory turns, and customer mix can move the result.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean Orange-only launch	$75k	$14.6k	$65.8k	80.5%	($5.4k)	Stays below break-even, so one weak freight month can flip it negative.
Base Year 1 blended launch	$134.2k	$26.2k	$65.8k	80.5%	$42.2k	Break-even lands around Month 2, but the cushion is still thin.
Full Year 5 expanded mix	$448.3k	$87.4k	$117.2k	80.5%	$243.7k	Larger account volume absorbs fixed cost better and widens the cushion.

What breaks the break-even plan if sales slow or costs creep up?

Stress test

Year 1 revenue averages about $134.2k/month, versus break-even near $74.6k/month, so there's room. The cushion gets tight fast if restaurant reorders slow, cold freight rises, or flavored inventory starts moving slowly.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$74.6k/month	$59.6k cushion	Healthy buffer if reorders hold.
Revenue shortfall	Year 1 revenue falls 15%.	$74.6k/month	$39.5k cushion	Still above break-even, but the buffer shrinks.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed overhead rises 10%.	$82.1k/month	$52.1k cushion	Rent and payroll pressure raise the hurdle.
Variable pressure	Contribution margin slips 5 points from 80.5% to 75.5%.	$79.6k/month	$54.6k cushion	Freight or spoilage eats into the spread.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 15%, fixed overhead rises 10%, and margin slips 5 points.	$87.5k/month	$26.6k cushion	Missed reorders and logistics spikes can erase the cushion fast.

What must you verify before signing the lease and buying cold-chain capacity for masago supply?

Founder checklist

Don’t sign the lease or buy the fleet until buyer commitments cover Year 1 volume, because the model hits its cash low at Month 2 with $791K needed. At 32,000 total Year 1 units and 80.5% contribution margin, this launch only works if orders are real and cold chain costs stay tight.

1Demand proof32,000 units

Confirm signed restaurant and foodservice demand matches the 32,000 Year 1 units, or the cold chain and inventory plan will outrun sales.

2Launch mix20,000 units

Check the first launch mix, especially the 20,000-unit Orange line, because it drives $900K of Year 1 revenue and sets the base volume.

3Fixed load$23.0K/mo

Hold the non-payroll fixed base at $23.0K a month before you lock the lease, since that cost runs from Month 1 through Month 60.

4Margin check80.5% CM

Keep sourcing, processing, freight, and sales fees near the model, since 19.5% variable cost leaves an 80.5% contribution margin.

5Capacity ramp$365K capex

Phase the $365K build across fleet, racking, machinery, lab gear, portal, and furniture, and delay extra hiring if orders lag.

6Cash reserve$791K

Hold at least the modeled $791K minimum cash, because the low point lands in Month 2 before the business has time to self-fund.