Medical Marijuana Dispensary Break-Even: ~$42K Monthly Sales

Fixed costs $27.1K/mo Launch overhead

Contribution margin 82% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $33.0K/mo Revenue target

Break-even timing Month 5 Model break point

Break-even calculator

Use this to test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against break-even for a licensed dispensary.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the cash coming in each month before costs. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These rise with sales, like product, fees, and loyalty costs. $ Low costs High costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $48,216 $58,800 revenue - $10,584 variable expenses

Margin ratio

82%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs These are the monthly costs the store must cover even if sales dip. $ Lean overhead High overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses stay fixed and which move with sales in a medical cannabis store?

Cost classification

Break-even gets shaky when fixed overhead, traffic-driven staffing, and true sales-linked costs are mixed together. In the first year, rent is $10,000 per month, Store Manager payroll is $70,000 annually, and product purchases run at 12.0% of sales.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Facility Rent	Fixed	Include in monthly overhead at $10,000 from Month 1 through Month 60.	Tying rent to sales volume instead of treating it as committed overhead.
Store Manager payroll	Fixed	Include in fixed overhead at $70,000 annually for 1.0 FTE each year.	Treating core management as per-order labor.
Wellness Advisor payroll	Semi-fixed	Add staffing in steps as traffic rises, from 2.0 FTE in the first year to 4.0 FTE in Year 5.	Ignoring headcount jumps when visitor volume grows.
Wholesale Product Purchase	Variable	Model as 12.0% of first-year sales, declining to 10.0% by Year 5.	Leaving inventory purchases out of gross margin.
Packaging & Labeling	Variable	Model as 1.0% of first-year sales, then 0.8% from Year 3 onward.	Burying packaging in office supplies.
Payment Processing Fees	Variable	Model as 3.0% of first-year sales, declining to 2.5% by Year 4.	Using cash-only assumptions and missing card-related fees.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Start with the $1,500 monthly base load, then review usage as hours and traffic rise.	Assuming no increase with longer hours or heavier foot traffic.
Regulatory Compliance & Audit Fees	Fixed	Include $2,000 per month in recurring overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Treating compliance as a one-time launch item.

How does break-even change across lean, base, and full dispensary setups?

Scenario table

Lean sits at the break-even floor, base adds a real cushion, and full volume creates a wide buffer. The swing comes from a mostly fixed cost base, so small revenue changes matter a lot.

Planning assumptions only; patient flow, product mix, rent, payroll, and state rules can move the result.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean licensing-floor dispensary	$421K	$76K	$346K	82%	$0	Near break-even; tiny traffic shifts matter.
Base first-year dispensary	$588K	$106K	$346K	82%	$137K	Covers fixed costs and leaves a modest cushion.
Full-volume dispensary	$2,909K	$495K	$427K	83%	$1,988K	Wide cushion, but staffing must stay tight.

How much sales drop or cost pressure will break the dispensary’s break-even plan?

Stress test

The base plan has room, but the cushion shrinks fast if patient traffic softens or payroll and compliance costs rise before sales catch up. A 20% revenue drop plus higher costs can turn monthly profit into cash burn.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$422K	$166K cushion	Healthy cushion, but demand has to hold.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue falls 30% to about $412K.	$422K	$10K gap	A 30% drop pushes the plan below break-even and into a small loss.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise 10% to about $380K per month.	$464K	$124K cushion	Higher overhead eats most of the plan’s cushion.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise 5 points to 23%.	$449K	$139K cushion	A small margin hit lifts the break-even line fast.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 20%, fixed costs rise 10%, and variable expenses rise to 23%.	$494K	$24K gap	That mix creates about $18K in monthly cash burn.

Can this dispensary clear break-even before you sign the lease and fund the opening stack?

Founder checklist

Before you commit, check whether Year 1 traffic can convert into about 83 buyers a day and still carry the fixed load. If that flow is weak, the Month 6 cash trough of $271K gets hard to fund.

1Launch Demand83 buyers/day

Verify Year 1 traffic can turn into about 83 buyers a day at 35% conversion, or the store will miss break-even even if the basket is strong.

2Lease Load$10K/mo

Make sure the site can carry $10K rent inside a $16.3K monthly fixed base before payroll, because rent is the first slow leak.

3Margin Check82% CM

Confirm Year 1 wholesale at 12%, packaging at 1%, payment processing at 3%, and loyalty at 2% still leave about 82% contribution margin.

4Opening Capex$670K

Verify the full opening stack, including the $250K license fee, $150K build-out, $75K security, $40K HVAC, $30K fixtures, $25K vault, $20K POS, and $80K inventory, can be funded before you commit.

5Staffing Ramp4.5 FTE

Staff to the Year 1 flow, not the hope of Year 2, because 4.5 FTE already implies about $219K in annual payroll.

6Cash Reserve$271K

Hold enough cash for the Month 6 trough, since the model's minimum cash need is $271K and that's before any surprise slippage.