Metal Casting Break-Even Analysis: $96K Monthly Revenue Target

Fixed costs $77.1K/mo Year 1 base

Contribution margin 80.6% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $95.7K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 2 Model crosses

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against break-even for a metal casting operation.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the pool that has to cover variable costs first, then fixed overhead. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses These are the direct costs that rise with output, like materials, labor, and energy tied to each part. $ Lean costs Heavy costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $438,675 $515,675 revenue - $77,000 variable expenses

Margin ratio

85%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead base that contribution margin has to cover. $ Light overhead High overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which foundry expenses stay fixed, and which move with sales volume?

Cost classification

Your break-even date is only as reliable as the cost split behind it. Treat rent and salary base as fixed, but keep alloy, direct labor, energy, shipping, and staffing step-ups tied to actual volume.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Facility Rent Foundry	Fixed	Carry $15,000 per month from Month 1 through Month 60 before calculating unit margin.	Spreading rent per casting and making low-volume margins look too strong.
Year 1 Salaried Payroll	Fixed	Use $615,000 per year, or $51,250 per month, for the first operating year base payroll.	Leaving salaried roles out because direct casting labor is already in unit COGS.
Raw Material Metal Alloy	Variable	Apply per unit: $30 Valve Body, $15 Engine Bracket, $50 Pump Housing, $10 Gear Blank, and $200 Turbine Blade.	Using one average metal input across very different castings.
Direct Labor Casting Finishing	Variable	Charge per unit produced, from $5 for Gear Blank to $100 for Turbine Blade.	Moving shop-floor labor into fixed overhead and hiding margin pressure.
Sales Commissions and Shipping & Logistics	Variable	Model as 4.5% of first year revenue, then update by year as rates decline.	Entering commissions and freight as flat monthly budgets instead of sales-linked costs.
General Utilities Non-production and Factory Utilities Energy	Semi-variable	Use $1,500 per month for non-production utilities plus 0.8% of revenue for factory energy.	Treating furnace-related energy as fixed overhead even when production volume changes.
Equipment Maintenance Routine	Semi-variable	Model routine maintenance at 1.0% of revenue so it rises with heavier production use.	Freezing maintenance at one monthly amount while output climbs.
Quality Control Specialist, Sales Manager, and R&D Engineer Staffing	Semi-fixed	Add staffing in steps: Quality Control and Sales rise to 2.0 FTE by Year 5, and R&D starts in Month 13.	Smoothing headcount as a revenue percentage instead of adding capacity in hiring steps.

How does break-even move from a lean foundry setup to Year 1 and full capacity?

Scenario table

The lean plan sits at break-even, Year 1 clears it with room to spare, and the Year 5 plan has the widest cushion. The shift comes from revenue rising faster than the fixed load.

Planning assumptions only; actual results move with mix, scrap, yields, and overhead.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean break-even run rate	$105.4K	$20.5K	$85.0K	80.6%	$0	At this line, there is no cushion.
Year 1 launch plan	$185.4K	$36.0K	$85.0K	80.6%	$64.4K	Clears break-even by Month 2.
Year 5 full-capacity plan	$898.8K	$161.8K	$101.6K	82.0%	$635.3K	Strong cushion, but payroll must stay tight.

What breaks the break-even plan for a metal casting shop?

Stress test

Base case looks safe: $1,854K of monthly revenue against $956K break-even leaves an $898K cushion. The biggest risk is a revenue miss, because each lost sales dollar strips about $0.81 of contribution before fixed costs stop shrinking.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$956K	$898K cushion	Healthy cushion, but pricing and scrap control still matter.
Revenue down 20%	Monthly revenue drops 20% to $1,483K.	$956K	$527K cushion	Still above break-even, but the safety margin shrinks fast.
Fixed costs up 10%	Fixed costs rise 10% to $848K.	$1,052K	$802K cushion	Overhead climbs, so the business needs more sales just to stand still.
Margin down 5 points	Contribution margin falls 5 points to 75.6%.	$1,019K	$835K cushion	Each sale contributes less, so break-even moves up.
Combined pressure	Revenue drops 20%, fixed costs rise 10%, and margin falls 5 points.	$1,122K	$361K cushion	The plan still clears break-even, but the margin of safety gets much thinner.

Can your metal casting shop support Year 1 break-even volume before you commit to the lease and furnaces?

Founder checklist

Test the Year 1 volume, capex, and staffing plan before you sign the lease or place equipment orders. The model reaches break-even by Month 2, but cash still dips to $267K in Month 7, so the early spend has to fit the real sales ramp.

1Demand proof5,200 units

Verify signed orders or a real pipeline can cover the 5,200-unit Year 1 mix, not just hopeful quotes.

2Furnace capacity5,200 units

Check furnace output, shifts, and labor can produce the full Year 1 volume without overtime that crushes margin.

3Tooling cash$200K

Confirm mold inventory and tooling money is set aside before launch, because the model assumes $200K of early spend.

4Direct costs$55-$2.85K

Test quoted part costs against the modeled direct cost stack so Valve Body, Engine Bracket, Pump Housing, Gear Blank, and Turbine Blade all stay workable.

5Plant setup$77.1K/mo

Make sure insurance, ventilation, safety controls, and material handling are ready, because the fixed load is about $77.1K a month before variable costs.

6Cash gate$267K Month 7

Keep capex and hiring staged to the $267K cash low in Month 7, and hold the delivery vehicle, extra lab spend, and R&D hire until the runway is safe.