Microbrewery Break-Even Analysis: $515K Monthly Revenue Target

Break-Even Metric Cards

Fixed costs $16.0K/mo Operating base

Contribution margin 89.5% Year 1 mix

Break-even revenue $17.9K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 2 First break-even

Break-Even Calculator

Break-even calculator

Use this to test monthly revenue against direct beer costs and the fixed monthly cost base.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Monthly beer and merch sales set the pool that must cover variable and fixed costs. $ Low sales High sales Variable expenses Use direct brewing, packaging, and distribution costs that rise with sales. $ Low direct High direct

Money available to cover fixed costs $73,118 $81,700 revenue - $8,582 variable expenses

Margin ratio

89%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs Enter the monthly lease, payroll, utilities, and admin base. $ Lean cost Heavy cost

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which microbrewery expenses are fixed, and which move with sales volume?

Cost classification

Break-even only works when fixed overhead, usage-driven bills, and unit-linked inputs are split cleanly. Keep the $730,000 startup capex out of operating break-even so Month 2 isn’t distorted.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Taproom Lease	Fixed	Include the $7,500 monthly lease as baseline overhead.	Tying rent to pint or keg volume.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Model the $2,500 monthly bill with a base load plus brewing usage.	Treating all power, water, and cooling as flat.
Business Insurance	Fixed	Use the $1,200 monthly premium as fixed overhead.	Letting insurance rise with every sales unit.
Sales & Marketing	Fixed	Use the $3,000 monthly plan as fixed unless campaigns scale with events.	Assuming every marketing dollar tracks revenue.
Malt	Variable	Apply malt directly to beer production volume.	Hiding ingredient spend inside fixed brewery overhead.
Packaging Cans	Variable	Apply can packaging to packaged beer unit volume.	Spreading cans evenly across all months regardless of output.
Taproom Staff	Semi-fixed	Add staff in steps as service hours and traffic grow.	Modeling payroll as a smooth percent of sales.
Sales Representative	Semi-fixed	Start staffing in Month 7, then step up with wholesale scale.	Charging sales payroll before the role starts.

How does break-even change from a lean launch to full taproom use?

Scenario table

Break-even gets easier as the brewery moves from lean launch to fuller use. CM means contribution margin, the share left after variable costs, and it stays near 89.5% while rising volume and spreading fixed costs build a bigger cushion.

Planning figures only. They are modeled break-even assumptions, not a guarantee of actual results.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch mix	$67.3K	$7.1K	$38.4K	89.5%	$21.8K	Above the $515K annual break-even base, but the cushion is still thin.
Base case mix	$166.4K	$17.5K	$48.3K	89.5%	$100.7K	Well above the $647K annual break-even base, with better cushion from fuller tank use.
Full-capacity mix	$300.9K	$31.6K	$62.1K	89.5%	$207.3K	Far above the $832K annual break-even base, so risk drops if demand holds.

What pushes this microbrewery over break-even?

Stress test

The base plan clears break-even by about $292K on $807K of revenue, so it has room. The risk is simple: softer taproom traffic, higher waste, wage creep, rent increases, or a weaker keg mix can pull the cushion down fast.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$515K	$292K cushion	Healthy cushion, but traffic still matters.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue slips to the break-even floor.	$515K	$0 cushion	Any further drop turns profit into loss.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed obligations rise by $10K.	$526K	$281K cushion	Rent or overhead hikes eat about $11K of cushion.
Margin pressure	Contribution margin falls from 89.5% to 88.5%.	$521K	$286K cushion	Packaging waste, input inflation, and poor mix push break-even up.
Combined pressure	Fixed obligations rise by $10K and margin falls to 88.5%.	$532K	$275K cushion	Two small hits together shave the cushion to $275K.

What should a microbrewery founder verify before signing the lease?

Founder checklist

Test the lease, capex, staffing, and opening stock against break-even before you commit. This model carries about $16K a month of fixed cost, $730K of startup capex, and $1.199M of minimum cash in Month 1, so the demand and cash plan have to hold first.

1Margin Test89% to 91% CM

Check that pours, kegs, and merch can sell at the modeled contribution margin, because a few points of discounting can wipe out break-even fast.

2Lease Load$16K/mo

Make sure the taproom lease and other fixed costs can be covered by expected foot traffic, or the rent becomes the main break-even risk.

3Capex Split$730K

Keep the brewhouse, tanks, build-out, cold room, chiller, canning line, fixtures, and POS as startup cash, so setup spend does not blur monthly operating break-even.

4Cash Cushion$1.199M

Hold the model's minimum cash in Month 1, because the opening build and early sales ramp happen before the business settles into break-even.

5Staff RampMonth 7

Start with the base brewing and taproom team, and only add the sales representative from Month 7 if volume supports it, so payroll follows demand.

6Launch Stock$80.7K Y1

Verify malt, hops, yeast, cans, kegs, and merch can be on hand for launch, and that the Year 1 revenue mix can reach about $80.7K without hiding waste.