Microbrewery With Taproom Break-Even Analysis: ~$39K/Month

Fixed costs $9.9K/mo Monthly overhead

Contribution margin 85% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $11.7K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 2 Model timing

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs to see if the taproom covers its overhead.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue This is the top line that funds contribution margin. $ Slow month Busy month Variable expenses These direct costs rise with sales, like ingredients, packaging, and fees. $ Light spend Heavy spend

Money available to cover fixed costs $47,809 $57,388 revenue - $9,579 variable expenses

Margin ratio

83%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs These monthly costs must be covered before profit starts. $ Lean overhead Heavy overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which brewery taproom expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even gets shaky when pint-level costs and steady overhead are mixed together. In the first operating year, rent runs $6,500/month while card fees move at 2.5% of sales, so each needs a different treatment.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Taproom Lease/Rent	Fixed	Anchor monthly overhead at $6,500 from Month 1 through Month 60.	Tying rent to pint volume or taproom sales.
Head Brewer and Taproom Manager	Semi-fixed	Cover the salary base before counting profit from higher traffic.	Treating core management labor as fully flexible.
Bartenders	Semi-variable	Schedule labor up as taproom traffic grows from 2.0 FTE in the first year.	Overstaffing slow shifts before demand proves out.
Brewing Consumables	Variable	Include malt, hops, yeast, water, and CO2 in each pint’s unit margin.	Ignoring per-pint production inputs in break-even math.
Stout Crowler Packaging	Variable	Include the $1.00 can and $0.25 label in each crowler margin.	Pricing packaged beer like draft pours.
Payment Processing Fees	Variable	Apply the first-year rate of 2.5% to sales revenue.	Leaving card fees out of contribution margin.
Marketing & Advertising Spend	Variable	Apply the first-year rate of 3.0% to sales revenue.	Burying sales-driven marketing inside fixed overhead.
Utilities Electricity & Gas	Semi-variable	Model the $1,200/month base, then watch usage as brewing load rises.	Assuming energy use stays flat forever.

How does break-even shift from a lean launch to a full taproom build?

Scenario table

Break-even moves with staffing and taproom overhead more than with beer volume alone. Lean covers rent with a smaller team, base adds labor, and full scale widens the cushion only if demand keeps up.

These are planning assumptions, not a guarantee of demand, pricing, or margin.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch scale	$57.4k	$11.5k	$25.9k	80.0%	$20.0k	Revenue clears the roughly $32k monthly break-even, so lease risk is the first watch item.
Base staffing scale	$77.5k	$15.1k	$32.8k	80.5%	$29.6k	This row stays above the roughly $41k monthly break-even and fits a fuller staff plan.
Full mature scale	$124.3k	$21.5k	$38.7k	82.7%	$64.1k	This has the widest cushion, but higher output still needs demand to fill the tanks and taproom.

What breaks the taproom break-even plan if traffic or costs slip?

Stress test

Break-even holds in the base plan, but it gets fragile if weekday traffic slows, bartender hours outrun sales, or rent and utilities creep up. The current cushion is about $186K, so small misses stack fast.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$388K	$186K cushion	Base case clears break-even, but the cushion is not huge.
Revenue shortfall	Sales come in $10K below plan.	$388K	$176K cushion	A $10K miss cuts operating profit by about $8K.
Fixed-cost increase	Lease, utilities, or labor rise $5K above plan.	$395K	$179K cushion	Overhead creep pushes the break-even line up fast.
Margin pressure	Crowler mix slips and fees push margin down 2 points.	$399K	$175K cushion	Lower mix makes each sale do less work.
Combined pressure	Sales fall $20K, overhead rises $5K, and margin slips 2 points.	$405K	$149K cushion	Traffic and labor pressure can burn the cushion quickly.

What should you verify before signing the taproom lease?

Founder checklist

Don't sign the taproom lease until the Year 1 mix can cover the $6.5K rent, the $9.9K of monthly non-payroll overhead, and the $254K Year 1 wage load. The model also peaks at $1.12M of cash need in Month 2, so runway has to clear first.

1Demand proof$688.7K

Prove the Year 1 mix can move 45,000 IPA pints, 38,000 lager pints, 5,000 stout crowlers, 800 tees, and 15 rentals before you lock the space.

2Fixed load$9.9K/mo

Confirm the lease and monthly overhead stay at this level before you add the $254K Year 1 wage load, or weak traffic turns the fixed stack into a drag.

3Margin check80% CM

Check that sales left after variable costs stay near 80%, because that margin funds rent, payroll, and the rest of the operating base.

4Capacity ramp88K units

Make sure the 3 BBL system, 4 fermentation tanks, 2 bright tanks, 50 kegs, and walk-in cold storage can support the Year 1 plan without hiring ahead of traffic.

5Cash runway$1.12M

Keep enough cash to survive the Month 2 peak need, since capex and payroll hit before the taproom has time to pay back.

6Supply setupLaunch month

Lock access to malt, hops, yeast, crowler cans, labels, and blank tees before launch month so beer, packaging, and merch are ready when sales start.