Mobile Propane Delivery Break-Even: About $36K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $18.6K/mo Core overhead

Contribution margin 80.5% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $23.1K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 9 Model break point

Break-even calculator

Test whether monthly propane delivery revenue covers variable costs and steady overhead.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue This is the monthly sales base that has to cover costs and leave room for profit. $ Low volume High volume Variable expenses These are direct costs that rise with each propane refill, exchange, and delivery mile. $ Lean cost Heavy cost

Money available to cover fixed costs $32,200 $40,000 revenue - $7,800 variable expenses

Margin ratio

80%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the steady monthly overhead that break-even revenue must cover. $ Low overhead High overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which mobile propane delivery expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even gets useful only when route-linked costs stay out of overhead. In the first year, treat 12.0% propane and tank inventory plus 7.5% vehicle usage as volume-driven before testing the fixed monthly base.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Propane wholesale and tank inventory	Variable	Subtract 12.0% of first-year revenue before contribution margin.	Treating fuel product purchases like warehouse overhead.
Vehicle fuel and maintenance	Variable	Subtract 7.5% of first-year revenue for miles, stops, and route wear.	Flat-lining it even when delivery density changes.
Warehouse and storage facility rent	Fixed	Include $3,500 per month in the fixed overhead base.	Spreading it per tank and hiding idle capacity.
Office space rent	Fixed	Include $1,200 per month until the space plan changes.	Linking office rent to monthly order count.
Vehicle insurance and registration	Fixed	Include $2,000 per month for the active fleet base.	Modeling it as a per-delivery charge.
Software and technology subscriptions	Fixed	Include $1,500 per month in operating overhead.	Mixing recurring software with setup development spend.
Delivery driver payroll	Semi-fixed	Use $7,000 per month for 2 FTE in the first year, then step up with staffing.	Scaling driver payroll smoothly with every order.
Marketing budget	Semi-variable	Use $3,750 per month in the first year and watch the $35 CAC payback.	Burying acquisition spend inside fixed overhead without tracking CAC.

How does break-even shift from a lean launch to base and full route plans for mobile propane delivery?

Scenario table

Lean break-even is the tightest case because it carries the Year 1 mix and the heaviest fixed load per dollar sold. As pricing and mix improve, the margin edge widens, but payroll and marketing still keep the full route plan exposed if route density slips.

Planning figures only. They show model-based break-even signals, not guaranteed demand or profit.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch route	$30,333	$5,916	$24,417	80.5%	$0	Break-even is tight; one weak route can flip the month red.
Base route build	$39,368	$7,284	$32,083	81.5%	$0	A bit more cushion, but overhead still leaves little room for misses.
Full route scale	$50,303	$8,803	$41,500	82.5%	$0	Scale helps only if route density stays high enough to cover payroll.

What breaks the break-even plan for mobile propane delivery?

Stress test

The base plan breaks even near $364,000 a month, but it has little room for lower route volume, higher fuel and repair costs, or rising overhead. A 10% revenue drop or a 5-point margin hit pushes break-even into the $389,000 to $401,000 range.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$364,000	$0 cushion	The base case reaches break-even, but only with steady demand.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue falls 10% from the base plan.	$364,000	$29,000 gap	Lower stop volume opens a monthly operating gap fast.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed costs rise 10% from the base plan.	$401,000	$37,000 gap	Overhead creep pushes the break-even line out of reach.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise 5 percentage points.	$389,000	$25,000 gap	Fuel, repair, or route cost spikes cut through the cushion.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10%, variable expenses rise, and fixed costs rise 10%.	$427,000	$75,000 gap	Paid acquisition above $35 CAC plus cost creep breaks the plan.

What should a founder verify before buying the fleet, signing storage, and launching mobile propane delivery?

Founder checklist

Don’t lock in fleet, storage, or launch spend until route density can support about 763 monthly order-equivalents and CAC stays at $35 or less. The model reaches break-even in Month 9, but the cash trough hits $430K in Month 16, so weak early demand makes the whole plan fragile.

1Route density763/mo

Verify one service area can generate about 763 monthly order-equivalents before you scale marketing or add more vehicles, or the route math will not hold.

2Fleet ready$180K

Confirm the delivery vehicles are ready before you commit the $180,000 fleet spend, because a late fleet pushes service start and burns cash.

3Supply lock$75K

Lock supplier supply and tank inventory first, since the $75,000 tank and equipment outlay only works if product is on hand when orders start.

4Facility load$3.5K/mo + $45K

Check that you truly need the warehouse before you accept $3,500 a month in rent and $45,000 in racking, because fixed space cost raises the break-even bar fast.

5Unit margin80.5% CM

Check that Year 1 prices still leave about 80.5% contribution after 12% propane cost and 7.5% vehicle fuel and maintenance, so payroll and overhead can fit.

6Ramp control2.0 FTE / $35 CAC / $430K

Train drivers before the Year 1 driver load reaches 2.0 FTE, test dispatch before the $25,000 GPS spend, keep support coverage inside the $800 communications line, cap early marketing if CAC climbs above $35, and hold $430,000 for the Month 16 cash low.