Moon Phase Calendar Publishing Break-Even: $24K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $15.6K/mo steady base

Contribution margin 58% after variable costs

Break-even revenue $27.0K/mo monthly target

Break-even timing Month 2 launch ramp

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed monthly costs against break-even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the top line that funds your fixed cost base. $ Soft launch Peak year Variable expenses These are direct costs that rise as sales grow, like production and selling fees. $ Lean spend Heavy spend

Money available to cover fixed costs $50,246 $62,417 revenue - $12,171 variable expenses

Margin ratio

81%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead your contribution margin must cover. $ Light overhead Staffed overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which publishing expenses are fixed, variable, semi-variable, or semi-fixed at break-even?

Cost classification

Break-even works only if steady overhead stays separate from unit-driven spend. Keep one-time startup spend, like $25,000 website development and $12,000 workstations, out of monthly operating break-even.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Studio lease	Fixed	Include $2,500 per month in fixed overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Spreading rent across units and calling it production spend.
E-commerce platform fees	Fixed	Include $299 per month as fixed overhead while the sales site is active.	Blending platform fees with merchant fees that move with sales.
Revenue-based COGS	Variable	Reduce contribution margin by 7.5% of revenue: data licensing, royalties, verification, inspections, and merchant fees.	Treating percentage fees as fixed licenses and overstating margin.
Unit production and fulfillment	Variable	Deduct per unit for paper, printing, binding, packaging, and pick and pack; first-year wall calendar spend is $6.50 per unit.	Using one blended unit rate before sales mix is clear.
Social media advertising	Variable	Model as 8.0% of first-year revenue, then the listed annual percentages as sales scale.	Locking it as a flat monthly budget when the model ties it to revenue.
Influencer commissions	Variable	Model as 4.0% of first-year revenue, then step down with the forecast rates.	Counting commissions after break-even instead of inside contribution margin.
Salaries tied to headcount	Semi-fixed	Treat payroll as fixed within each staffing level, then step it up when roles add FTE.	Smoothing salaries per unit and missing the operations manager move from 0.5 FTE to 1.0 FTE.

How does break-even shift from lean to full scale in moon phase calendar publishing?

Scenario table

Break-even gets safer as the business scales. Year 1 sits closest to the line, while Year 3 and Year 5 spread fixed costs over more sales and ad rates fall from 12% to 8% of revenue; no wholesale discount data is provided.

Planning case only; these scenario figures are assumptions, not guarantees.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean first-year forecast	$62.4k	$21.5k	$17.5k	65.5%	$23.4k	Thin cushion; keep ad spend tight.
Base third-year forecast	$165.4k	$52.2k	$34.6k	68.4%	$78.6k	Clearer coverage; fixed costs are easier to absorb.
Full fifth-year forecast	$370.0k	$106.2k	$39.0k	71.3%	$224.8k	Strong cushion; lower ad burden widens room.

What breaks the break-even plan if demand or costs slip?

Stress test

The base plan clears break-even with a solid cushion. The main risks are a 20% sales miss, a 25% lift in fixed overhead, or a 5-point margin hit from print, shipping, or ad cost pressure.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change in demand or cost rates.	$286k	$462k cushion	Comfortable headroom at launch.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue comes in 20% below plan.	$286k	$313k cushion	Still clears overhead, but the cushion shrinks fast.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed overhead rises 25%.	$358k	$391k cushion	Higher overhead lifts the bar quickly.
Margin pressure	Contribution margin drops 5 points to 60.5%.	$310k	$439k cushion	Print, shipping, or ad inflation tightens the spread.
Combined pressure	Revenue drops 30%, margin falls to 60.5%, and fixed overhead rises 25%.	$387k	$137k cushion	Still above break-even, but the margin of safety gets much smaller.

What should a founder verify before locking a full print run for moon phase calendars?

Founder checklist

You’re ready only if preorder demand, unit margins, and cash cover the first print run before you add staff or storage. In this model, the break-even test is about 526 units a month against about $15.6K in fixed monthly cost.

1Preorder Demand526/mo

Verify preorder volume can clear about 526 units a month before you lock the full print run, because that is the level that covers the model’s monthly fixed load.

2Fixed Load$15.6K/mo

Check that studio rent, software, insurance, utilities, and Year 1 wages stay near $15.6K a month, or the break-even line moves up fast.

3Margin Stack$29.9/unit

Confirm the weighted selling price of $45.36 and the combined 7% revenue COGS, 8% social ads, and 4% influencer commissions still leave about $29.9 per unit to cover fixed cost.

4Staff Ramp2.0 FTE

Make sure 2.0 first-year full-time equivalents can handle design, order flow, and support before you add the Month 13 marketing hire or Month 25 design hire.

5Cash Cushion$1.175M

Keep enough reserve to absorb the Month 2 cash trough of $1.175M, because print, payroll, and launch spend hit before revenue fully scales.

6Startup Capex$79K

Separate the $79K startup capex from monthly break-even math, and plan storage for unsold seasonal inventory so slow stock does not trap cash.