Mountain Cabin Rental Break-Even Analysis: $57K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $48.7K Year 1 base

Contribution margin 91% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $53.6K Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 1 Launch month

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test how monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs compare with break-even for a mountain cabin rental.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the cash coming in each month before costs. $ Low demand Peak demand Variable expenses These costs rise when bookings and guest turnover rise. $ Tighter costs Higher costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $137,000 $170,000 revenue - $33,000 variable expenses

Margin ratio

81%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead the property must cover before profit starts. $ Lower overhead Higher overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which mountain cabin rental expenses are fixed, variable, semi-variable, or semi-fixed?

Cost classification

Break-even only works if each expense behaves the way the model says it does. Here’s the quick math: fixed costs set the monthly hurdle, while variable costs reduce margin on each booked stay or add-on sale.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Property Insurance	Fixed	Include $2,500 per month in the fixed overhead hurdle.	Spreading it per occupied night and hiding the true monthly nut.
Property Taxes	Fixed	Include $4,000 per month before calculating required room revenue.	Treating taxes as optional when occupancy dips.
Core Payroll	Fixed	Include first-year payroll of $422,500 per year, about $35,208 per month.	Counting managers and leads as variable labor.
Marketing & Sales	Variable	Apply the first-year rate of 6.0% against revenue before contribution margin.	Budgeting a flat monthly amount when spend tracks bookings.
Guest Supplies & Cleaning	Variable	Apply the first-year rate of 3.0% as stays increase.	Treating all cleaning as fixed even when checkout volume rises.
Food & Beverage COGS	Variable	Apply the first-year rate of 4.0% to related food and beverage sales.	Using room revenue only and missing add-on margin drag.
Utilities Above Base Load	Semi-variable	Keep the $3,000 base utilities fixed, then add usage tied to occupied nights.	Treating heat, water, and power as fully fixed.
Seasonal Service Contracts	Semi-fixed	Step the expense up when snow removal, landscaping, or hot tub service frequency rises.	Smoothing seasonal service needs evenly across every month.

How does break-even change across lean, base, and full cabin-rental scenarios?

Scenario table

Break-even gets easier as occupancy, pricing, and unit count rise faster than staffing and service costs. The lean launch is tight, the base case has a cushion, and the full-season case has the strongest buffer.

Planning assumptions only; actual results will move with seasonality, mix, and cost control.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch	$592K	$86K	$487K	85.5%	$19K	Near break-even; a small occupancy dip can erase profit.
Base case	$701K	$89K	$538K	87.3%	$74K	Small cushion; keep staffing and service costs in line.
Full-season run	$815K	$91K	$585K	88.9%	$140K	Strongest cushion; revenue growth outpaces overhead.

What breaks the break-even plan if bookings soften and costs rise?

Stress test

The plan has a thin cushion, so a small drop in occupancy or a bump in fixed spend can move it out of balance. Off-season softness, cleaning overruns, and utility spikes are the first things to watch.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$570,000/month	$22,000 cushion	Thin cushion; off-season softness matters.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue falls 10%.	$570,000/month	$37,000 gap	Every $10,000 lost removes about $8,500 of coverage.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed costs rise by $5,000 per month.	$628,000/month	$36,000 gap	Insurance, taxes, or utilities can move the floor fast.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise from 14.5% to 17.5%.	$591,000/month	$117,000 gap	Cleaning overruns and marketing waste squeeze margin twice.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 20%, fixed costs add $5,000 per month, and variable expenses rise to 17.5%.	$628,000/month	$154,000 gap	A weak shoulder season plus higher spend leaves a wide hole.

Is the cabin project ready to lock land and start the build?

Founder checklist

Before you lock land or sign the build contract, confirm the demand, staffing, and vendor plan still hold at the modeled rates. The project carries a $5.583M cash low in Month 11, so the reserve has to survive the full build and opening ramp.

1Build cash$6.75M / -$5.583M

Verify the full land, build, and fit-out bill is funded before you commit, because total opening capex is $6.75M and the model still shows a $5.583M cash low in Month 11.

2Demand proof55% occ

Confirm you can actually book 55% occupancy in Year 1, because the business only works if guest nights show up early enough to cover the fixed load.

3Rate band$180-$700 ADR

Keep pricing inside the Year 1 ADR bands, from $180 to $250 for Cozy Studio, $250 to $350 for Family Loft, $350 to $500 for Luxury Suite, and $500 to $700 for Grand Chalet, or the margin math changes fast.

4Fixed load$48.7K/mo

Verify the property can carry about $48.7K a month in fixed costs and wages before variable spend, so a soft month does not wipe out the break-even path.

5Staffing ramp7.5 FTE

Confirm the Year 1 plan at 7.5 FTE can keep cleaning, front desk, and maintenance covered before you accept peak bookings.

6Launch scopeNo extras yet

Hold hot tubs, fire pits, and spa services until vendor and maintenance coverage is proven, because each extra amenity adds work before base stay demand is stable.