New York Bagel Shop Break-Even Analysis: $59K Monthly Sales

Fixed costs $48.4K Monthly overhead

Contribution margin 81.5% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $59.4K Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 4 Model breakeven

Break-even calculator

Test how monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs shape the monthly break-even point.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the top line that pays direct costs and fixed overhead. $ Slower month Busy month Variable expenses These rise with sales, like ingredients, packaging, and card fees. $ Tight cost Higher cost

Money available to cover fixed costs $61,125 $75,000 revenue - $13,875 variable expenses

Margin ratio

82%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base the shop has to cover. $ Lower base Higher base

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses are fixed, variable, or step up with sales in a bagel cafe?

Cost classification

Classifying each expense by behavior keeps break-even from looking too low. Monthly fixed overhead is $17,850 before payroll; $407,000 of opening capex affects cash need, not operating break-even.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Rent	Fixed	Use $12,000 per month from Month 1 through Month 60 before calculating break-even sales.	Spreading rent as a sales percentage and understating the slow-month hurdle.
Utilities	Fixed	Use the modeled $2,000 per month unless a separate usage-based utility schedule is added.	Flexing the full amount with orders when the model treats it as stable overhead.
Property Insurance	Fixed	Include $750 per month as recurring overhead in the operating break-even base.	Leaving insurance out because it is not tied to daily covers.
Food & Beverage Ingredients	Variable	Apply 14.0% of sales in the first year, then use the modeled annual percentages.	Using revenue as gross margin and forgetting ingredient drag on each sale.
Packaging & Supplies	Variable	Apply 1.0% of sales in the first year, stepping down as modeled over time.	Treating bags, boxes, and supplies as fixed even though they rise with orders.
Marketing & Promotions	Variable	Apply 2.5% of sales in the first year because the model ties spend to revenue.	Locking promotion spend as fixed and overstating contribution margin at higher sales.
Credit Card Processing Fees	Variable	Apply 1.0% of sales across all forecast years.	Ignoring card fees on small transactions where pennies still reduce margin.
Approved Salaried Payroll	Semi-fixed	Use Year 1 payroll of $367,000 annually, then step up with FTE bands as staffing expands.	Assuming payroll moves smoothly with sales instead of jumping when another full-time role is added.

How does break-even change from a lean bagel shop case to base and full cases?

Scenario table

Lean gets you to break-even; base adds a modest cushion, and full year-2 volume widens it. The main swing is revenue density against a fixed cost load that starts near $48k a month.

Scenario figures are planning assumptions from the model, not guarantees.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean bagel shop case	$59.4k	$11.0k	$48.4k	81.5%	$0	At this volume, the shop is just covering fixed costs.
Base bagel shop case	$87.1k	$16.1k	$48.4k	81.5%	$22.6k	This adds a modest cushion if weekday traffic holds.
Full bagel shop case	$110.8k	$19.8k	$50.1k	82.1%	$40.9k	This widens the cushion, but staffing still has to stay tight.

What breaks the bagel shop’s break-even plan first?

Stress test

Year 1 revenue at $871,000 leaves a $277,000 cushion over the $594,000 break-even point, but that cushion shrinks fast if weekday traffic weakens or rent and payroll move up. Small misses add up fast.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$594,000	$277,000 cushion	Year 1 stays above break-even.
Revenue shortfall	Year 1 revenue drops to $594,000.	$594,000	$0 gap	The cushion is gone.
Fixed-cost rise	Monthly overhead rises by $1,000.	$595,227	$275,773 cushion	Extra overhead trims room fast.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise 1 percentage point.	$594,738	$276,262 cushion	Small fee or ingredient drift matters.
Combined pressure	Overhead rises $1,000 and variable expenses rise 1 point.	$595,965	$275,035 cushion	Rent and margin drift chew up cushion.

Can this bagel shop hit break-even before you lock the lease and hire staff?

Founder checklist

Before you sign the lease or hire, prove the shop can support $12,000 rent, a $367,000 Year 1 payroll, and the $592,000 Month 6 cash floor. The model breaks even by Month 4, so traffic and runway have to work before the first fixed cost lands.

1Traffic Proof295/week

Confirm Year 1 traffic can hold about 295 weekly orders, because break-even sits near 201 weekly orders and the gap is what protects the lease.

2Lease Load$12K/mo

Verify $12,000 monthly rent fits the sales plan inside the $594,000 break-even revenue target, or fixed costs will outrun the morning rush.

3Contribution81.5% CM

Check that ingredients, packaging, marketing, and card fees stay near the model, because 81.5% contribution margin is what keeps break-even reachable.

4Staffing Ramp$367K/yr

Confirm the opening crew can handle the morning rush without early overstaffing, because Year 1 payroll already totals about $367,000.

5Cash Floor$592K

Keep cash above the Month 6 low point, since the model needs about $592,000 of minimum cash to survive the build and opening ramp.

6Opening Build$407K

Fund the full $407,000 opening capex and set POS, card processing, and website costs before launch, so you do not add fixed spend before demand is visible.