Supplement Store Break-Even Analysis: $21K Monthly Sales Target

Fixed costs $7.0K Monthly base

Contribution margin 80.5% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $8.7K Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 37 Model break-even

Break-even calculator

Use this calculator to test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against break-even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the monthly top line. More sales give you more room to cover fixed costs. $ Low sales Busy month Variable expenses These rise with sales, mainly inventory, inbound shipping, and payment fees. $ Low costs High costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $6,440 $8,000 revenue - $1,560 variable expenses

Margin ratio

80%

Covers fixed costs

$10,560 short

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base that contribution margin must cover. $ Lean setup Bigger team

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which supplement store expenses are fixed and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even is Month 37, so bad cost labels can move the target. Treat rent and insurance as fixed, sales-linked fees as variable, and staffing as semi-fixed so contribution margin and cash need stay honest.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Commercial Lease	Fixed	Use $4,500 per month from Month 1 through Month 60.	Lowering rent as sales slow, which overstates margin.
Business Insurance	Fixed	Use $250 per month as a stable operating charge.	Tying insurance to order volume without model support.
Inventory Purchase Cost	Variable	Apply 13.5% of revenue in the first year, declining to 11.5% by Year 5.	Confusing recurring inventory purchases with initial inventory stock of $20,000.
Inbound Shipping	Variable	Apply 1.5% of revenue in the first year, declining to 1.1% by Year 5.	Modeling freight as fixed even though it rises with replenishment volume.
Payment Processing Fees	Variable	Apply 2.5% of revenue in the first year, declining to 2.1% by Year 5.	Leaving card fees out of contribution margin.
Performance Marketing	Variable	Apply 2.0% of revenue across all five years.	Treating sales-driven ad spend as a flat monthly budget.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Start with the $600 monthly base, then review usage if traffic rises.	Assuming utilities stay flat as store visits grow.
Store Wages	Semi-fixed	Model wage steps as full-time equivalent staffing increases by year.	Smoothing headcount instead of stepping up roles when capacity changes.

How does break-even change from a lean opening to a base storefront and full supplement shop?

Scenario table

A lean opening needs the least revenue to break even, while the base and full formats need about $30.7k and $33.7k a month. Bigger fixed costs raise the bar, so traffic and repeat orders have to grow first.

Planning assumptions only; actual break-even will shift with traffic, conversion, and staffing mix.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean opening	$21,118	$4,118	$17,000	80.5%	$0	Lowest cost base, but traffic still has to hold.
Base storefront	$30,678	$5,553	$25,125	81.9%	$0	Added payroll cuts cushion, so sales must climb first.
Full shop	$33,697	$5,862	$27,833	82.6%	$0	Highest fixed load needs stronger traffic and repeat buys.

What breaks the break-even plan if sales slip or costs rise?

Stress test

Here’s the quick math: the base plan breaks even at about $21,118 of monthly revenue on $17,000 of fixed costs and an 80.5% contribution margin. A 20% sales drop, a $2,000 overhead jump, or weaker margins can move it back into monthly loss.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$21,118	$0 gap	No cushion if sales come in soft.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly sales land 20% below break-even at $16,894.	$21,118	$4,224 gap	That is about a $3,400 monthly operating loss.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed overhead rises by $2,000 to $19,000 a month.	$23,602	$2,484 gap	Lease, payroll, or support costs lift the bar fast.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise from 19.5% to 22.5% of sales.	$21,935	$817 gap	Supplier costs above plan squeeze the cushion.
Combined pressure	Sales fall to $16,894, variable expenses rise to 22.5%, and fixed costs rise to $19,000.	$24,516	$7,622 gap	This scenario drives about a $5,900 monthly loss.

Can this supplement store support break-even before you sign the lease and place the first inventory order?

Founder checklist

Test demand, margin, staffing, and cash against Month 37 breakeven before you commit. At 17 paid orders a day and about $40.80 AOV, the store is close to the level this model needs, but only if supplier costs and payroll stay on plan.

1Traffic Target17/day

Verify the location can drive 17 paid orders per day at about $40.80 AOV, because that is the sales pace this model needs to make the lease work.

2Supplier Terms13.5% / 1.5%

Lock inventory purchase cost near 13.5% and inbound shipping near 1.5% before you buy the $20,000 opening stock order, or margin slips fast.

3Margin Stack80.5% CM

Contribution margin, the cash left after variable costs, needs to stay near 80.5% after 15% COGS, 2.5% processing fees, and 2.0% performance marketing.

4Staffing Ramp2.5 FTE

Keep Year 1 staffing near 2.5 full-time equivalents, because the planned manager, wellness expert, sales help, and stock support already absorb a lot of monthly cash.

5Cash Cushion$310K

Hold at least $310,000 in cash, since breakeven lands in Month 37 and payback does not arrive until 56 months.

6Startup Spend$100K

Keep build-out, fixtures, hardware, signage, security, office gear, inventory, and e-commerce setup near the planned $100,000, or the breakeven date moves out.