Online Currency Exchange Break-Even Analysis: $99K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $38.0K/mo Fixed overhead only

Contribution margin 100% No variable costs

Break-even revenue $38.0K/mo Revenue to cover base

Break-even timing Month 18 Model break-even point

Break-even calculator

Use this to test monthly revenue against variable costs and the fixed cost base.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Enter the monthly top line that feeds break-even. $ Lower revenue Higher revenue Variable expenses Enter direct costs that rise with revenue. $ Lower costs Higher costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $124,500 $124,500 revenue - $0 variable expenses

Margin ratio

100%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs Enter the monthly cost base that revenue must cover. $ Lower base Higher base

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses are fixed and which move with sales for an online currency exchange?

Cost classification

Break-even is only useful if each expense behaves the way the model says it does. Here, fixed overhead is clear, but payroll steps up by year and transaction-linked fees must move with transfer volume.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Platform Hosting & Maintenance	Fixed	Include $15,000/month in baseline overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Scaling it with transaction volume before usage pricing is supplied.
Regulatory & Compliance Fees	Fixed	Include $5,000/month as required operating overhead for break-even.	Treating required compliance spend as optional until revenue grows.
Office Rent	Fixed	Include $8,000/month in fixed monthly operating expense.	Moving rent with sales instead of keeping it stable in the planning range.
Software Subscriptions	Fixed	Include $3,000/month unless the pricing plan changes with users or transactions.	Assuming every software line scales with volume without a usage driver.
Legal Retainer	Fixed	Include $2,500/month as recurring legal overhead.	Modeling the retainer as a one-time launch expense.
Payroll	Semi-fixed	Model wages in annual FTE steps, rising as engineering, support, and marketing headcount expand.	Smoothing hiring evenly by month when staffing actually jumps in blocks.
Payment Rails and Banking Fees	Variable	Apply only when a per-transfer fee or percentage charge is supplied.	Treating per-transfer fees as fixed overhead.
FX Execution Costs and Fraud Losses	Variable	Link to transaction volume or revenue once the model supplies rates.	Leaving volume-linked losses out of contribution margin.

How does break-even change from lean launch to base case and full scale?

Scenario table

With variable costs at $0 in the data, break-even is driven almost entirely by spread revenue versus fixed overhead. Lean launch misses, the base case reaches the Month 18 break-even signal, and full scale adds cushion, but processor and banking fees will still matter.

Planning assumptions only; actual spread income, processor fees, and funding costs can move the break-even point.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch	$56,500	$0	$98,833	100%	-$42,333	Still below break-even; fixed overhead is heavier than spread revenue.
Base case	$127,833	$0	$120,500	100%	$7,333	This is the Month 18 break-even signal; margin is thin, so fee slippage matters.
Full scale	$236,083	$0	$143,000	100%	$93,083	Profit cushion is wider, but fee pressure can still cut into it.

What breaks this break-even plan if revenue slips or fees rise?

Stress test

Year 2 is the stress point. The model has only an $88,000 annual EBITDA cushion, so a small revenue slip or a few thousand dollars of extra monthly fees can erase profit. There’s no variable cost line, so added execution fees hit margin dollar-for-dollar.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	Year 2 base case holds at the current cost run rate.	$1,446,000	$88,000 cushion	Thin cushion before support and marketing ramp.
Revenue shortfall	Year 2 revenue falls by $88,000.	$1,446,000	$0 cushion	A small drop wipes out Year 2 profit.
Fixed-cost increase	Add $5,000 per month in compliance-like overhead.	$1,506,000	$28,000 cushion	Extra overhead eats most of the buffer.
Margin pressure	Add $3,000 per month in processor and banking fees.	$1,482,000	$52,000 cushion	Unpassed fees cut EBITDA dollar-for-dollar.
Combined pressure	Add $5,000 per month in compliance cost and $3,000 per month in software-like cost.	$1,542,000	$8,000 gap	The plan turns slightly negative before scale.

What should a founder verify before committing to launch spend for an online currency exchange?

Founder checklist

Check whether spread, fees, and demand can cover the $38K monthly overhead, the $650K launch build, and the Month 18 break-even path. If those numbers do not hold, delay the ramp.

1Demand proofMonth 18

Verify the spread and fee yield can carry customer acquisition to break-even by Month 18 before you add the $90K marketing role.

2Fixed load$38K/mo

Stress-test the fixed stack, including $15K hosting and maintenance, because those costs hit from Month 1 and set the floor you must clear.

3Launch capex$650K

Confirm the $650K build is funded outside break-even overhead so launch spend does not hide a weak operating margin.

4Licensing cover$75K + $5K/mo

Make sure the initial regulatory license and the $5K monthly compliance fee are covered before you sign banking and payment partners.

5Support rampMonth 13

Delay support hiring until volume needs it; if break-even slips, payroll growth will outrun demand and push the payback out.

6Liquidity buffer-$30.2M

Protect cash before scaling exchange volume, and do not treat regulatory capital as operating profit when you plan the reserve cushion.