Open Source Intelligence Service Break-Even Analysis: $115K/Month

Fixed costs $20.5K/mo Base monthly overhead

Contribution margin 68% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $30.1K/mo Monthly revenue target

Break-even timing Month 5 Model break point

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs against break-even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the margin available to cover fixed costs. $ Low run rate High run rate Variable expenses These are direct costs tied to research, tools, and delivery. $ Tight spend Heavy spend

Money available to cover fixed costs $127,614 $187,667 revenue - $60,053 variable expenses

Margin ratio

68%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly overhead margin has to cover. $ Light overhead High overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which open-source intelligence service expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even only works if each expense sits in the right bucket. Treat usage-driven research tools, premium sources, and subcontractors as sales-linked, while rent, security infrastructure, and core overhead stay fixed within the monthly planning range.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Data Subscriptions & OSINT Tools	Variable	Use 12% of first-year revenue in the break-even formula.	Treating usage-driven tools as overhead.
Database Access & Premium Sources	Variable	Use 8% of first-year revenue as delivery-linked spend.	Burying premium-source access in general software.
Project-Based Subcontractor Costs	Variable	Use 4% of revenue when outside specialists support client work.	Counting contractor delivery as fixed payroll.
Sales & Marketing Activities	Variable	Use 8% of revenue, separate from the $180,000 first-year annual marketing budget.	Mixing revenue-linked selling activity with planned budget spend.
Senior and Junior Intelligence Analyst Salaries	Semi-variable	Model capacity by FTE plan and analyst utilization.	Ignoring utilization when adding analyst headcount.
IT Infrastructure & Security	Fixed	Use $3,200 per month within the current operating range.	Scaling security infrastructure directly with each sale.
Office Rent & Utilities	Fixed	Use $6,500 per month through the planning period.	Letting rent rise with revenue in the model.
Professional Services (Legal/Accounting)	Fixed	Use $2,800 per month as recurring operating overhead.	Treating recurring legal and accounting support as one-time setup spend.

How does break-even shift from a lean founder-led OSINT shop to a larger analyst team with a stronger retainer mix?

Scenario table

The lean setup keeps fixed cost light, so break-even depends on a small team and fast project closeout. As the model moves to a base and then full practice, revenue grows faster than cost, so the cushion gets wider.

These are planning assumptions built from the model, so they show direction and scale, not a guaranteed result.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean founder-led OSINT model	$187.7k	$60.1k	$76.5k	68.0%	$51.1k	Month 5 break-even is reachable with a tight team and low overhead.
Base multi-analyst OSINT model	$694.8k	$198.0k	$166.5k	71.5%	$330.3k	Retainer mix and added staff improve coverage, so break-even risk drops fast.
Full scaled OSINT practice	$1,728.0k	$432.0k	$241.4k	75.0%	$1,054.6k	Six senior analysts and five junior analysts create the strongest cushion.

What happens if revenue slips or costs rise?

Stress test

The base plan has about a $73k monthly cushion above break-even. A 15% revenue dip still leaves room, but a 10% fixed-cost rise or a 5-point margin hit trims the buffer fast; the combined shock leaves only about $23k.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$115k	$73k cushion	Healthy now, but underuse or churn can narrow it.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue falls 15% from the base case.	$115k	$45k cushion	Lower retention shows up first in the cushion.
Fixed-cost increase	Monthly fixed costs rise 10%.	$126k	$62k cushion	More overhead means steadier deal flow is needed.
Margin pressure	Contribution margin drops 5 points to 63%.	$124k	$64k cushion	Tool price increases and subcontractors can cut return.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 15%, fixed costs rise 10%, and margin drops to 63%.	$136k	$23k cushion	One more miss can push the plan very close to loss.

What should the founder verify before locking in hires, office spend, and the client portal?

Founder checklist

Verify that signed retainers or project pipeline can cover the about $115K monthly break-even target before you lock in fixed spend. The key test is whether due diligence work at 45 hours and $220/hour can sell often enough to support the Month 5 path.

1Pipeline Cover~$115K/mo

Check that committed work and live proposals can cover monthly break-even before you add more fixed costs.

2Pricing Mix45 hrs × $220

Test that due diligence projects can close often at Year 1 rates, not just once or twice.

3Spend Gate$358K capex

Delay office, portal, and license spend if the revenue cushion is thin, because those upfront buys can outrun early cash.

4Staffing Ramp2.0 senior FTE

Only add the junior analyst, business development manager, or admin role when current load is stable and your confidentiality, source access, quality control, and compliance workflow is already set.

5Cash Cushion$691K

Keep the Month 6 minimum cash need in view so hiring, tools, and collections timing do not break the plan.

6Launch Demand$180K + 8%

Separate the Year 1 marketing budget from variable sales activity and verify the pipeline can support both before you scale spend.