Organic Frozen Yogurt Break-Even Analysis: $345K Monthly Sales

Fixed costs $27.9K/mo Base overhead

Contribution margin 81% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $34.5K/mo Monthly target

Break-even timing Month 2 First breakeven month

Break-even calculator

Check how monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs stack up against break-even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue More revenue gives you more room to cover fixed costs. $ Slow month Peak month Variable expenses These rise with sales, like ingredients, packaging, promos, and card fees. $ Tight costs Heavy costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $161,634 $194,740 revenue - $33,106 variable expenses

Margin ratio

83%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly bill stack the shop must cover before profit. $ Lean setup Full staff

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which organic frozen yogurt expenses are fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even gets reliable only when fixed overhead, sales-linked inputs, and staffing step-ups are separated. If payroll or packaging is misclassified, the contribution margin will look stronger than it is.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Rent	Fixed	Include $8,000 per month in fixed overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Spreading rent across each order and hiding the true monthly sales target.
Utilities	Fixed	Use $1,200 per month as fixed overhead in the base model.	Ignoring freezer load risk when sales volume or operating hours rise.
Store and lab payroll	Semi-fixed	Use $16,833 per month in the first year for manager, lead lab, full-time lab, and part-time lab roles, then step up with staffing.	Treating payroll as fully flexible when shifts and coverage have minimum staffing needs.
Ice Cream Ingredients	Variable	Deduct 11.0% of first-year sales before calculating contribution margin.	Using revenue as margin and forgetting ingredient usage rises with each sale.
Packaging Supplies	Variable	Deduct 3.5% of first-year sales as a direct contribution margin input.	Leaving cups, lids, spoons, and carryout supplies out of variable expense.
Marketing Promotions	Variable	Deduct 3.0% of first-year sales when modeling contribution margin.	Putting promotions below the break-even line and overstating store-level margin.
Payment Processing Fees	Variable	Deduct 1.5% of sales because card fees move with transaction volume.	Modeling card fees as fixed even though they rise with customer spend.

How does break-even move across lean, base, and full shop formats?

Scenario table

Higher weekend traffic and a heavier event mix push revenue up, but they also lift payroll and the break-even floor. So the real test is whether staffing stays tight enough to keep the cushion wide.

Planning numbers only: these are model assumptions, so actual results can move with traffic, pricing, and staffing.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean launch shop	$1.13M	$215k	$279k	81%	$640k	Revenue stays above the $345k floor, so weekday traffic is the watch item.
Base operating shop	$1.47M	$264k	$347k	82%	$856k	The cushion is still strong, but payroll lifts the break-even floor to $423k.
Full staffing shop	$1.83M	$310k	$385k	83%	$1.13M	Profit is highest here, yet the break-even floor also rises to $464k.

What breaks the break-even plan for an organic frozen yogurt shop?

Stress test

At launch, the shop clears break-even by a wide margin. The real pressure points are slow weekdays, discounting, higher organic ingredient costs, and hiring before traffic is steady.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	Base case: $1.134M monthly revenue, 19% variable expenses, and $279k fixed overhead.	$345k	$789k cushion	Strong opening cushion, but weekday traffic still has to hold.
Revenue shortfall	Monthly revenue falls 25% to about $851k.	$345k	$506k cushion	Still above break-even, but traffic erosion cuts room fast.
Fixed-cost increase	Fixed overhead rises by $5k a month.	$407k	$727k cushion	Extra payroll or rent narrows the buffer before sales build.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise from 19% to 24%.	$368k	$766k cushion	Discounting or ingredient inflation hits the margin first.
Combined pressure	Fixed overhead rises by $5k and variable expenses rise to 24%.	$433k	$701k cushion	Margin slip plus payroll growth can erode the launch cushion.

Is this shop ready for the lease, build-out, and first inventory buy?

Founder checklist

Before you commit, check whether traffic, ticket size, rent, labor, and cash still clear the model’s break-even point. Don’t open on optimism alone if the math only works on best-case weekends.

1Traffic Base$345K/mo

Confirm local foot traffic and spend can support about $345,000 in monthly break-even revenue before you sign the lease.

2Ticket Mix$1,250 / $1,800

Test whether midweek baskets can hold near $1,250 and weekend baskets near $1,800, since the revenue plan depends on that mix.

3Rent Load$8K/mo

Keep rent at or below the $8,000 monthly assumption, because every extra dollar pushes the break-even sales target higher.

4Unit Margin81% CM

Lock supplier terms so ingredients stay near 11% of sales and packaging near 3.5%, which leaves about 81% contribution before fixed costs.

5Labor Ramp$16.8K/mo

Here’s the quick math: Year 1 payroll is about $16,833 a month, so keep staffing near that level and hold the assistant manager for Year 2.

6Cash Floor$290K / $771K

Validate the freezer, prep, POS, and security build-out against the $290,000 capex plan, and keep cash above $771,000 in Month 2 before the opening inventory buy.