Organic Restaurant Break-Even Analysis: $48K Monthly Revenue

Fixed costs $21.3K Monthly overhead

Contribution margin 81% After variable costs

Break-even revenue $26.3K Monthly sales target

Break-even timing Month 14 Model break-even

Break-even calculator

Test how monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs stack up against break-even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue sets the margin that can cover fixed costs. $ Slow month Peak month Variable expenses These are direct costs that rise as sales rise. $ Lean costs Higher costs

Money available to cover fixed costs $109,600 $133,000 revenue - $23,400 variable expenses

Margin ratio

82%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs This is the monthly cost base the margin must cover. $ Small base Larger base

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which restaurant expenses stay fixed, and which move with sales?

Cost classification

Break-even is only useful if each expense is treated by how it behaves. Put rent and core salaries in overhead, tie ingredients to sales, and scale hourly coverage in staffing bands.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Rent	Fixed	Include the $8,000 monthly lease in overhead.	Tying rent to daily covers.
Cafe Manager	Fixed	Include the $65,000 annual salary in fixed payroll.	Treating manager pay as hourly flex.
Head Chef	Fixed	Include the $60,000 annual salary in fixed payroll.	Burying chef salary inside food margin.
Barista	Semi-fixed	Scale labor by staffing bands as drink volume grows.	Assuming perfect daily labor flex.
Counter Staff	Semi-fixed	Scale coverage by service periods and traffic levels.	Ignoring slow shifts in the labor plan.
Kitchen Assistant	Semi-fixed	Add hours in steps as prep volume rises.	Overhiring before demand is proven.
Food Ingredients	Variable	Apply the sales percentage, starting at 10.0% in the first year.	Treating grocery spend as fixed.
Utilities	Semi-variable	Include the $900 monthly base plus usage pressure.	Treating spikes as pure volume.

How does break-even change across lean, base, and full ramp cases for an organic restaurant?

Scenario table

As covers and check size rise, revenue grows faster than fixed costs, so the break-even cushion widens. Year 1 is weak, Year 2 is clear, and Year 3 is strong, but capacity, staffing, and service speed still have to match cover counts.

Planning assumptions only; actual break-even moves with traffic, mix, labor, and supplier costs.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Lean ramp, Year 1	$466K	$88.5K	$391K	81.0%	-$13.5K	Weak; break-even sits near $482K, so Year 1 still misses the line.
Base ramp, Year 2	$806K	$148.3K	$414K	81.6%	$243.7K	Clear; break-even sits near $507K, so Year 2 has a real cushion.
Full ramp, Year 3	$1.276M	$224.6K	$441K	82.4%	$610.4K	Strong; break-even sits near $535K, so Year 3 is well above the line.

What breaks the organic restaurant's break-even plan if sales slip or costs rise?

Stress test

The current plan is only about $17K below break-even, so there is not much slack. A 10% sales drop, 10% overhead rise, or higher food costs quickly turns that small gap into a much bigger loss.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$483K	$17K gap	You are close, but still short of break-even.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue falls 10% to about $420K.	$483K	$63K gap	Lower covers or a smaller average check widen the loss fast.
Fixed-cost pressure	Overhead rises 10% to about $430K.	$531K	$65K gap	Staffing and occupancy costs move ahead of sales.
Margin pressure	Variable expenses rise to 24% of sales.	$514K	$48K gap	Higher produce and protein spend squeezes contribution.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10%, overhead rises 10%, and variable expenses rise to 24%.	$566K	$146K gap	All three shocks together push the plan far past break-even.

What should you verify before you sign the lease for this organic restaurant?

Founder checklist

Use the Year 1 cover plan, $16 midweek and $20 weekend pricing, and $39.1K monthly overhead as the gate. If the site cannot support about $48.8K in monthly sales and a Month 14 break-even path, don’t commit.

1Weekly covers640/week

Verify the location can pull the Year 1 cover plan, because that is the demand base behind every break-even forecast.

2Fixed load$39.1K/mo

Check that monthly payroll and non-payroll overhead stay near $28.2K and $10.9K, or the sales target moves up fast.

3Menu price$16/$20

Confirm the menu can hold $16 midweek and $20 on weekends while still clearing the 81% contribution margin after food, paper, marketing, and online fees.

4Labor ramp8 FTE

Verify the manager, chef, barista, counter staff, and kitchen assistant plan can serve the forecast without adding shifts too early.

5Cash runway$638K

Hold enough cash to reach the Month 13 low point, because the model needs that cushion before the business turns.

6Buildout gate$220K capex

Do not fund the full leasehold, equipment, furniture, inventory, and setup spend until the site has a believable Month 14 break-even path.