Open Source Intelligence Service Break-Even Analysis: $90K/Month

Fixed costs $60.4K/mo Labor plus overhead

Contribution margin 71% After variable spend

Break-even revenue $85.1K/mo Monthly revenue target

Break-even timing Month 9 Forecast break point

Break-even calculator

Test monthly revenue, variable expenses, and fixed costs to see where an intelligence service breaks even.

Lean Base Full

Monthly revenue Revenue is the cash that covers variable and fixed costs. $ Lower sales Higher sales Variable expenses These are direct costs that move with each new case and client. $ Lower cost Higher cost

Money available to cover fixed costs $203,729 $273,833 revenue - $70,104 variable expenses

Margin ratio

74%

Covers fixed costs

Yes

Fixed monthly costs These are the monthly costs you pay even when volume is light. $ Lower overhead Higher overhead

Break-even chart Revenue Total costs

Which expenses are fixed, and which move with sales for this intelligence service?

Cost classification

Break-even is only useful if each expense lands in the right bucket. Here, the big risk is treating salaried delivery labor like overhead instead of testing whether team capacity can support Month 9 break-even.

Expense	Cost	Break-Even Treatment	Common Mistake
Executive Office Suite Rent	Fixed	Carry $6,500 per month in fixed overhead from Month 1 through Month 60.	Spreading rent across jobs and hiding the true monthly nut.
Professional Liability & Errors and Omissions Insurance	Fixed	Use $1,200 per month as fixed overhead in operating break-even.	Treating required coverage as optional until revenue ramps.
Secure Network Maintenance	Fixed	Include $850 per month as a fixed security operating expense.	Putting baseline security spend into variable technology fees.
Legal & Compliance Retainer	Fixed	Include $2,500 per month before calculating required contribution margin.	Excluding compliance support from break-even because it is not client-facing.
Salaried Delivery and Sales Team	Semi-fixed	Model salary in staffing steps: principal investigator at $175,000 per year, two senior analysts at $115,000 each, junior researcher at $72,000, and business development manager at $95,000 in the first year.	Burying delivery labor inside overhead instead of testing capacity and margin.
Client Acquisition & Referral Fees	Variable	Apply 8% of revenue in the first year, then reduce based on the model percentages.	Using the marketing budget as CAC and ignoring referral fees tied to sales.
Secure Cloud Processing & Storage	Variable	Apply 3% of revenue in the first year because usage rises with client work.	Classifying cloud use as fixed when storage and processing grow with cases.
Data Vendor Subscription Fees	Semi-variable	Model at 12% of revenue in the first year, with lower percentages in later years as scale improves.	Treating all data access as fixed and overstating contribution margin.

How does break-even change from launch to growth to full scale for this OSINT service?

Scenario table

At launch, the model is still thinly covered, so break-even depends on closing work fast enough to absorb fixed payroll and tooling. By growth and mature stages, the margin improves, but only if revenue density rises faster than headcount.

Scenario figures are planning assumptions, not guarantees.

Scenario	Monthly Revenue	Variable Costs	Fixed Costs	CM Ratio	Operating Profit	Break-Even Signal
Launch case, Year 1	$77.1k	$22.4k	$71.6k	71.0%	$-16.8k	Still loss-making, so Month 9 break-even needs faster client conversion.
Growth case, Year 3	$273.8k	$70.1k	$125.4k	74.4%	$78.3k	This is the first clear cushion, but case volume still has to outrun payroll.
Mature case, Year 5	$705.0k	$156.5k	$187.2k	77.8%	$361.3k	Strong margin cushion, but only if revenue growth keeps up with staffing.

What breaks the break-even plan for this intelligence service?

Stress test

The base plan is close to the line, and a 10% revenue miss, 10% higher fixed load, or 34% variable costs can reopen a six-figure monthly gap. Retainer churn and slow client acquisition at $1,500 CAC are the first warning signs.

Stress Case	Changed Assumption	Break-Even Revenue	Revenue Gap	Risk Signal
Current plan	No change.	$904K	$94K gap	The base case has only a small cushion.
Revenue shortfall	Revenue falls 10% to $694K per month.	$904K	$149K gap	A small demand miss widens the gap fast.
Fixed-cost pressure	Fixed load rises 10% to $706K per month.	$994K	$159K gap	More overhead pushes break-even out by about $90K.
Margin pressure	Variable costs rise to 34%, cutting contribution margin to 66%.	$973K	$133K gap	Higher tool spend and longer analyst hours cut the cushion.
Combined pressure	Revenue falls 10%, variable costs rise to 34%, and fixed load rises 10%.	$1.07M	$248K gap	This case breaks the plan without faster pricing or stronger retention.

What should you verify before you lock in office space, payroll, and tools for a public-source intelligence service?

Founder checklist

Don’t lock in the office, payroll, or tool stack until pipeline can cover about $904K a month in break-even revenue. In Year 1, pressure-test the stated mix, the 12.5 billable hours per active customer, and the $530K cash floor through Month 8.

1Pipeline proof$904K/mo

Verify that signed and near-signed work can fill the break-even revenue gap before you treat overhead as safe.

2Fixed load$60.4K/mo

Check that rent, insurance, network, legal, accounting, admin, and Year 1 payroll can be carried without squeezing cash.

3Margin check71% CM

Verify the Year 1 cost stack leaves about 71% contribution margin after data, tools, acquisition, and cloud costs.

4Capacity ramp12.5 hrs

Confirm each active customer can be served at 12.5 billable hours a month without quality drift or analyst overload.

5Cash floor$530K

Keep at least $530K in reserve through Month 8, because the model hits its lowest cash point before breakeven.

6Launch mix45/35/15

Test that early demand holds near 45% due diligence, 35% litigation support, and 15% brand monitoring before you scale payroll.